On-Time and Under Budget Is Like Russian Roulette With Four Bullets

There is a way to transcend control and get to success.

Milo Todorovich
CodeX
3 min readOct 1, 2022

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Black revolver and six bullets.
Photo by Tom Def on Unsplash

The old model of software development had teams attempt to fulfill a requirements document by a specific date.

How well does that work?

According to the Standish Group’s CHAOS Report, it does not work. Over the last 25 years, only about 29% of projects have been deemed successful, meaning a combination of on time, under budget, and on target.

In short, running a project with a fixed scope towards a deadline has the same odds of success as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.

Let me say that another way: two-thirds of all projects fail!

You cannot expect to set scope, requirements, and timeline and get something successful in return.

“Software is eating the world.”
— Mark Andreessen, 2011

More than ever, software is now at the heart of every venture. From banks and ATM’s, to visiting a doctor’s office, to buying insurance. Even dating, matchmaking and interacting with friends happens through software more often than not. Today you can control your heating, turn on your car, order groceries with software.

According to the researched published in Accelerate (Forgren2018), high performance in software delivery predicts high performance as an organization.

And high performance is what everyone wants:

  • twice as likely to meet commercial goals like profitability and market share.
  • twice as likely to meet non-commercial goals like quality and satisfaction.

The biggest influences to software delivery are working in small batches, working on a small number of things at once, and delivering software frequently — multiple times per day.

“Every business is a software business.”
— Watts S. Humphrey, 2002

There are the practices of Lean Product Development, Lean Management and Continuous Delivery, that when combined, allow a software product to ship often, maintain high quality, and delight customers.

Getting a product to market quickly. Getting feedback from customers to make it the right product. Giving users the features they need, in the order they need them.

Delighting users, while energizing the team that’s doing the work.

This approach goes beyond estimation. This transcends “successful projects”.

This is an approach that I have witnessed and influenced on multiple teams over the last quarter-century.

This is Delivering Daily.

We are at a point in history that technologists need to be part of the decision-making process for nearly every important decision.
— Evan Cooke, co-founder of Twilio

Amazon, Twilio, the one-hundred new startups that deployed something in the last hour, and everyone in between all use these practice on their path to success.

Let go of your old mindset about scope, budget, and controlling outcomes.

Bring problems to your engineering teams. Give them the support to invest in software delivery. Work in small batches.

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📋 About Milo

I lead software teams, write, speak, coach, and solve problems.

I’ve been developing software since 1995 and developing teams for the past decade. 🚀

I enjoy mastering my craft: product development, software engineering, management, and leadership.

You can also follow me on Twitter. 🐦

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Milo Todorovich
CodeX

Coaching software engineers to more frequent software delivery | Software Engineer | Engineering Management | Leadership | PhD Candidate