A Look at the Philadelphia Flyers’ 2017 Draft Class and Kosorenkov
With each passing year in the National Hockey League’s era of the salary cap, finding ways to fill out a team’s roster with cheap high-end talent has become very important. Most NHL general managers aren’t going to give away this talent without a similar asset in return, and it’s difficult to land young talent in free agency due to bidding wars. This is what makes the NHL Entry Draft a key part of building a successful team in today’s league. With the recent success of teams that have built through drafting and developing (like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, and Tampa Bay Lightning), it’s hard to argue against this recipe.
Former Philadelphia Flyers’ general manager Paul Holmgren didn’t catch on to this idea, as he routinely traded away prospects and draft picks for trade deadline rentals that often left via free agency the following summer. Luckily for the Flyers’ faithful, Ron Hextall replaced Holmgren in May of 2014 and has placed a lot of emphasis on acquiring draft picks and developing prospects through the Flyers’ American Hockey League affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Aside from the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, which took place one month after he was named GM, Hextall has made nine selections or more in each of the last three drafts.
In this year’s draft, Hextall ended up picking nine players: seven forwards, one defenseman, and one goaltender. After receiving the good fate of unexpectedly landing the second overall pick, Hextall made a few trades to add another first-round selection, move up a few spots in the second round, and traded away a seventh-round pick this year for one in next year’s draft. Now that the dust has settled on draft weekend, let’s look at who Philadelphia selected.
2nd Overall — Nolan Patrick (Center, Western Hockey League’s Brandon Wheat Kings)
Even if the other eight selections for the Flyers never play in the NHL, picking Patrick second overall might still make this a successful draft. Projected as the first overall pick for the last few years, the combination of a sports hernia that limited him to 33 games this season along with the meteoric rise of Nico Hischier throughout the season dropped the 6’2” center one spot. After producing 41 goals and 61 assists in 72 games as an alternate captain for the Wheat Kings last season, Patrick potted 20 goals and 26 assists in 33 games as captain this season. He wasn’t near the top of the league compared to his peers due to the fact he missed over half the regular season, but considering he finished in the top 10 of several rate stats compared to other first-year eligible WHL forwards who played at least 33 games in the 2016–2017 season is very impressive.
Along with the point totals, the player described as Jonathan Toews Lite by Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek will hopefully bring what this Elite Prospects’ scouting report says about him to the Flyers:
“A highly skilled and all-round player. Patrick has few, if any, holes in his game and stands out in many aspects. His hockey sense and competitiveness is top notch. At the same time he has above average skating, shooting and puck skills. Furthermore, Patrick is a reliable two-way player and will do an excellent job on the penalty kill. Very capable scorer and passer.”
Despite all this, the New Jersey Devils felt the prospect’s injury history (which features two surgeries for sports hernias along with a broken collarbone when he was thirteen years old) was enough to let him fall to a division rival.
27th Overall — Morgan Frost (Center/Left Wing, Ontario Hockey League’s Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds)
Philadelphia used the first of their two first-round selections acquired from the St. Louis Blues in a deal that saw the departure of Brayden Schenn on forward Morgan Frost, who posted 62 points in 67 games for Sault Ste. Marie this year. Hextall took Frost a little higher than most pundits expected, as he was listed as the 38th best prospect in the draft by Bob McKenzie and 72nd by International Scouting Services. Considered a smart two-way player with excellent vision, Frost is a fast skater who has improved his acceleration over his time in the OHL. On top of being one of the better 5-on-5 skaters amongst first-year draft eligible OHL forwards, Frost is lauded as a great player on the power play and was one of five forwards to score at least 20 points with the man advantage this season.
With an improvement from his first OHL season to his second, some pundits, like Ryan Biech of Canucks Army, believe he is expected to take a big leap next season when he is given a bigger role:
“Nothing can replace seeing these players live. Like I look at a player like Morgan Frost with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. He played a depth, middle-six role for the Greyhounds because they had Senyshyn and Katchouk, and he’s somebody who did very well in that role. Next year, when these players graduate, then he’s going to be the next step up and he could be a very good bet in the 2nd or 3rd round for a team because he’s going to take that step up. Then people will be like ‘Oh, where did he come from?’ where he wasn’t a point per game player (this year)”
With comparisons to David Krejci, Vincent Trocheck, and Alexander Wennberg, the Flyers are hoping Frost can have an impact on the top two lines in the future.
35th Overall — Isaac Ratcliffe (Left Wing, OHL’s Guelph Storm)
For just the second time in his tenure as the Flyers’ GM, Hextall lost the difference in total picks exchanged in a trade as he traded the 44th overall, 75th overall, and 108th overall to move up to 35th overall for towering forward Isaac Ratcliffe. Listed as 6’5” on Elite Prospects, Ratcliffe can best be described as a high-risk, high-reward prospect. With 28 goals, 26 assists, and a league-leading 15.77 Goals For Percentage Relative at 5-on-5 play amongst first-year draft eligible players in 67 games with the lowly Guelph Storm, Ratcliffe fell to the Orange and Black early in the second round despite being projected to go anywhere from 13th by Hockeyprospect.com to 27th by Bob McKenzie. A total of 54 points in his draft season may not sound great, but Ratcliffe produced that for a Storm team that won 21 of their 68 games and had the fourth-lowest goals for total with 202 this year.
The left-handed left winger is hoping his strong 5-on-5 and power-play numbers, soft hands, and hockey sense will eventually translate into NHL success. His strengths are common strengths when it comes to a player his size, as he protects the puck well and can cause problems by being a net-front presence on offense. Unfortunately, he’ll be attempting to join a league that is moving towards quicker and smaller skaters, as only 17 of the 589 forwards who played in at least one game this past season were Ratcliffe’s height of 6’5” or taller. Ratcliffe’s skating isn’t terrible, but it isn’t better than expected for a guy his size. It also doesn’t bode well for the power forward that a lot is made of how he needs to bulk up.
Ratcliffe is probably the best left winger in the Flyers’ system, but it looks as though he is a project who will take a little longer to reach his potential than Philly’s other unsigned prospects.
80th Overall — Kirill Ustimenko (Goalie, MHK Dynamo St. Petersburg, MHL)
It’s tough to gauge how effective draft-eligible skaters will be at higher levels of competition despite having several counting statistics and limited advanced statistics. It’s even harder to know how well goaltenders will translate while taking into consideration level of competition, defensive support in front of them, and systems that are in place to help or hurt the goalie.
With that said, Ustimenko became the fifth goalie drafted by Hextall in Philly and the fourth one to be taken in the first three rounds of the draft. The Belarusian goaltender’s numbers are impressive, as he has posted a .921 save percentage with Dynamo St. Petersburg U-16 in 2014–2015, a .940 save percentage with the organization’s U-17 team in 2015–2016, and a .938 with the organization’s Molodezhnaya Hokkeinaya Liga (MHL) team this past season. Along with his work in the regular season, Ustimenko posted a .984 save percentage in a pair of games for Russia at the U-18 World Junior Championship.
106th Overall — Matthew Strome (Left Wing, OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs)
With the first of their back-to-back selections in the fourth round, the Flyers took Matthew Strome. With similar concerns about his brothers Ryan and Dylan, Strome’s biggest problem is his skating. This weakness in his game is most likely the reason why he fell to 106, as he had been projected as high as 29th by Future Considerations. Strome is aware of his skating problems, as he addressed the issue during an on-air interview with the NHL Network during the second day of the draft. Other than that, there doesn’t seem to be many problems in his game. Just look at how Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects summarizes Strome’s game:
“A big, skilled winger that plays a complete and consistent game. Battles hard for puck possession and is relentless on both the power play and penalty kill. Plays a hard-nosed game and uses his size to establish his presence around the net. Has good hands, an accurate shot, and zero compromise hockey sense. His skating and overall balance off the rush and in-transition is a work in progress that is continuing to get better by the day. That being said, his vision is excellent and his offensive talent is apparent; he is able to play at a fast pace. Being able to keep up is a big part of that, and, moving forward, he has the potential to develop into a strong two-way winger that is hard to play against and can be relied on in all situations.”
Strome’s 5-on-5 numbers this season are also encouraging for a fourth-round pick. The Bulldog finished fourth amongst 71 first-year draft eligible OHL forwards who played in at least 50 games this season with 24 goals. Strome also finished tied for fifth with 35 primary points, as well as finishing eighth in the categories of points (40), points per game (0.61), and shots on goal (133). The big forward also provides quality offensive chances, as he finished tied for first with nine high-danger goals and ninth with 22 high-danger shots on goal.
Hextall and company are hoping Strome can take a similar path to the NHL that 2014 draft pick Oskar Lindblom just completed, as the fifth-round pick fell in his draft class but overcame skating concerns to most likely make the Orange and Black’s roster for the 2017–2018 season.
107th Overall — Maxim Sushko (Right Wing, OHL’s Owen Sound Attack)
Sushko was the fourth and final OHL forward Hextall took in this year’s draft, as the right winger was available at 107. Taken a little higher than most people projected, Sushko is regarded as a fast forward who is great at forechecking and pursuing the puck. Although he only had 17 goals and 15 assists in 54 games this season, Sushko does still have a lot of offensive upside. Before posting 40 points in 29 games between a pair of Belarus2 teams in 2015–2016, Sushko posted 37 goals and 29 assists in 17 games for DYUSSH Shakhter, a team in Belarus’ Under-18 league. Despite his offensive upside, it seems that Sushko’s flaw is his defensive play, which is unique for a Hextall pick.
Sushko has a deceptively quick release on his shot and he gets a lot on it with an ability to beat goaltenders cleanly. As good a goal scorer as he is, he’s just as good a playmaker. He sees the ice extremely well, makes the right decisions, thinks the game at a high level and quickly and can deliver a crisp, clean pass. He has shown a strong ability to run the powerplay from the half-wall, whether getting into position for a shot, or more likely, set up teammates for opportunities.
-Dominic Tiano, OHL Writers
Unfortunately for Sushko, the Flyers have several right wingers locked in to the roster for the foreseeable future with Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, and Dale Weise. However, Sushko’s skillset sets him apart from other right wingers in Philly’s system and the only other unsigned right winger whose rights belong to the Flyers is Wade Allison.
137th Overall — Noah Cates (Left Wing, Stillwater High School in Minnesota)
The last winger taken by Hextall in the draft was Noah Cates, a forward who was well over a point-per-game player for his last two seasons of high school hockey. Cates is regarded as a great skater and stickhandler who is creative with a good shot. During the 2015–2016 season, the 6'1" 165-pound left winger had 20 goals and 34 assists in 25 games for Stillwater High School along with 15 points in 20 games representing Team Northeast for a total of 23 goals and 46 assists for 69 points in 45 games. Playing for the same two teams in the 2016–2017 season, Cates posted 20 goals and 45 points in 25 games as Stillwater’s captain as well as 24 points in 21 games for Team Northeast for a total of 89 points in 46 games. On top of his 158 points in 91 high school games, Cates had eight points in 13 games over two seasons for the Omaha Lancers of the United States Hockey League.
For all of the points he produced during the last few seasons, nothing is going to top his game-winning goal in overtime to send Stillwater to the Minnesota’s Class AA State Hockey Championship.
Cates will most likely play the 2017–2018 with the Omaha Lancers before he joins the University of Minnesota-Duluth, who lost in the NCAA Final this season to the University of Denver, for the 2018–2019 campaign. The Flyers’ pick will join a Bulldogs’ roster that boasted highly-touted prospects like Neal Pionk, Joey Anderson, and Riley Tufte this past season. With his commitment to an NCAA program after another season in the USHL, Philadelphia will have five years to see if they are willing to sign Cates.
168th Overall — Olle Lycksell (Center, SuperElit’s Linkoping HC J-20)
The Flyers continued their late-round trend of selecting Swedish players, as they took Olle Lycksell in the middle of the sixth round. Lycksell is the fifth Swedish player taken in the fifth round or later by the Flyers since Hextall became GM. Philadelphia is hoping Lycksell’s success early in his career is a preview of things to come, as the Flyers took a leap of faith on a player who is one of the youngest players in the draft class and has only played one game in a top-tier league in Europe.
There isn’t much information on Lycksell’s style of game, but the 5'10" 163-pound center has produced a fair amount of points throughout his career. Splitting his time between a pair of J-18 leagues in Sweden, Lycksell produced 75 points in 56 games over the last two seasons. He also posted four goals and five assists in 29 games for Linkoping HC’s J-20 team in the SuperElit.
This pick is a something Flyers’ fans should be happy about, even if there isn’t a lot of information on the pivot. The NHL Entry Draft is about having a chance to grab players who can have a major impact on your franchise for years to come. Most teams in the later rounds may choose to take the ‘safe’ choice of a player who is destined for a bottom-six role. However, Philly has decided over the last few years to use late-round selections on players that are considered long shots, but have upside if given the opportunity and time to develop (which the Flyers should give him plenty of each).
196th Overall — Wyatt Kalynuk (Left-handed Defenseman, USHL’s Bloomington Thunder)
With the expectation that the Orange and Black are set on the blue line at both the NHL level and in the system, Kalynuk was the only defenseman selected by Philadelphia at 196th overall. The 20-year-old left-handed defenseman does provide some intrigue though, as he’s regarded as an “offensive defenseman touted for his skating, vision and poise.”
The stats seem to back up Milewski’s description of Kalynuk, as the 6'1" 174-pound rearguard produced 31 points in 60 games for the Thunder this past season. On top of that, when it comes to the 75 overage d-men who played in 40 USHL games or more this year, Kalynuk fininshed fourth in both goals (6) and primary points (19) at 5-on-5 play. What might be more impressive is Kalynuk’s individual ability to produce shots, as he led the overage group with 159 shots at 5-on-5 and had the second highest shots-per-game rate with 2.65. In terms of a less predictive stat line that can still cause some interest, Kalynuk posted 34 goals and 36 assists in 46 games for the Virden Oilers of the South West Recreational Hockey League, a Bantam A league, way back during the 2010–2011 season.
Kalynuk is committed to the University of Wisconsin and will play for the Badgers starting in the 2017–2018 season. The Badgers are a respected NCAA program that featured Luke Kunin and Trent Frederic last year, and has several 2017 draft selections on the upcoming season’s roster. If he stays at Wisconsin for four years, that means the Flyers will be able to judge Kalynuk’s potential until he is 24 years old. It’s always unlikely that a seventh-round pick makes it to the NHL, but Hextall played the odds by taking a mobile overage defenseman who will be facing NCAA competition for the next four years.
UDFA Ivan Kosorenkov (Right Wing, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League’s Victoriaville Tigres)
After adding nine players to the Flyers’ system through the draft, Hextall has also invited right winger Ivan Kosorenkov to the team’s development camp in July. The overage forward went undrafted for a second straight season despite his offensive upside and goal-scoring capability.
Following a season where he only played 33 games in the MHL, Kosorenkov potted 34 goals and 29 assists in 68 games for the Tigres. His below point-per-game average as a 19-year-old in a high-scoring junior league along with his mediocre 5-on-5 statistics compared to the other 109 overage forwards who played in at least 50 QMJHL games could explain why he went undrafted.
Although he doesn’t have overwhelming numbers, there are many who like Kosorenkov’s game including Steve Kournianos, who runs the prospect-oriented website The Draft Analyst. Here is what Kournianos had to say about Kosorenkov, who he ranked as his best overager available and projected to go 144th overall in the draft:
Dynamic overage puck magnet who is strong on his skates and can stickhandle his way out of a jam. Kosorenkov is pretty quick on his feet, using exceptional agility and balance to maintain control of the puck. He comes across as more of a playmaker than a goal scorer, but scored 18 goals on 97 shots during 5v5 and finished second in the QMJHL with a 22.4 shooting percentage. Scoring pretty goals is something Kosorenkov is capable of doing, but he doesn’t bogey the tap-ins and slam dunks. He is listed at 6’0, 185 pounds but looks a bit stockier and his skating style is somewhat hunched.
Kosorenkov falls in line with Hextall’s theme of drafting wingers who score goals in this year’s draft. Hopefully the Russian forward finds a way to earn a spot in the Flyers’ system after a successful camp.
Every draft pick is a lottery ticket. The results are always left to chance, but there are ways to increase your chances of hitting on those lottery tickets. For the most part, the Flyers maximized their potential to land a future NHLer with each of their picks and the invitation to Kosorenkov. Now that the process of selecting players in the draft is done, the next thing Philadelphia hopes to accomplish is to develop these kids into successful professionals.
