A Look At The Prospects The Flyers Could Lose In The Summer of 2018
The way almost every team in the National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, and National Hockey League wins their championships is through drafting and developing. Unfortunately for the Philadelphia Flyers, they utilized the fact that former owner Ed Snider would throw any amount of money at free agents when there wasn’t a cap limit in the NHL and the team used this mentality until the summer of 2013, which was former general manager Paul Holmgren’s final offseason as GM of the Flyers. With Ron Hextall in charge, the Flyers are not only building one of the deepest prospect pools in the league, they are probably building the biggest prospect pool in team history.
With both the quantity and quality of prospects within Philadelphia’s organization being improved since the summer of 2014, prospects that were once considered to have a reasonable chance of earning a professional position with the club are having a harder time. Even prospects who have shown they are ready to take the next step will ultimately not make the cut mainly due to the fact it’s a numbers game. Hextall will have to make a decision on the following four players by the summer of 2018, whether or not they are a part of the organization’s future.
Terrance Amorosa
6’1”, 185 lbs. 22-year-old left-handed Defenseman
132nd overall in 2013 NHL Entry Draft
3 goals and 13 assists in 30 games last season as a junior for Clarkson University
Amorosa has felt like an underwhelming pick for the Flyers since they drafted him in the fifth round of 2013, as he failed to crack the Central Scouting’s Final Rankings for North American skaters.
After he posted 12 goals and 14 assists in 29 games as a senior at Holderness School in New Hampshire in 2012–2013, Amorosa posted 14 points in 50 games for the Sioux City Musketeers of the United States Hockey League. Amorosa posted a 5-point season as a freshman at Clarkson University in 2014–2015 before he posted back-to-back 16-point campaigns as a sophomore and junior. His 16 points this season put him 10th on the team in points and third among defensemen, while his 65 total shot attempts at even strength placed him 14th on the team.
With some size and mobility, Amorosa is intriguing as a potential NHL player. The blue liner also provides just enough offense to make one believe he can contribute to the scoreboard at the professional level. Hockey’s Future touched on Amorosa’s upside before the start of the 2016–2017 season, as well as his possible struggles, while looking to make his way into the Flyers’ organization:
Amorosa continued to make strides in his sophomore season at Clarkson University in 2015–16. A long-range prospect when he was selected by Philadelphia in the 2013 NHL Draft, the Quebec native was the team leader in plus/minus and is an offensive threat from the point. With several talented defensemen in the Flyers’ pipeline he could face a numbers game in earning an entry-level deal following his college career. His progress to this point suggests he can be an effective skating defenseman with some offensive push to his game.
Amorosa’s skillset sounds like a rearguard most teams in the NHL could use, but does he have a place in the Flyers’ system?
How He Lands an Entry-Level Contract: Amorosa produces more points and takes on even more defensive responsibility in his senior year at Clarkson University. On top of his improving his personal game Amorosa would need the Flyers to keep Shayne Gostisbehere, Andrew MacDonald, and Travis Sanheim on the right side while letting go of Brandon Manning, Will O’Neill, and T.J. Brennan on the left side. With the assumption Sam Morin and Robert Hagg will be with the Flyers at the start of the 2018–2019 season at the latest, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms will be in need of left-handed defensemen. For a long-shot prospect, Amorosa could work his way from the AHL up.
Why He Won’t: As Hockey’s Future pointed out, it’s a numbers game for Amorosa and it doesn’t look good at the moment. Most of the situation I described in how he would land an ELC with the Orange and Black most likely won’t happen. It’s possible (maybe even likely) Gostisbehere and/or Sanheim, who are both left-handed defensemen, move to the left side on top of Morin and Hagg making the jump to the NHL. Also, it’s possible Hextall will let one of O’Neill or Brennan walk, but probably not both of them. Another thing working against Amorosa is the fact that Hextall added the pair of Linus Hogberg and David Bernhardt in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, a pair of Swedish defensemen who each played in the Swedish Hockey League last year, a league that is much more competitive than ECAC Hockey in the NCAA.
What Likely Happens: Considering the Flyers’ are stocked with mobile blue liners who all seem to have more potential and upside, it doesn’t seem too likely that Amorosa will be signed by Hextall before his deadline of August in 2018. However, his chances of joining the organization at the professional level are greater than the next defenseman.
David Drake
6’3”, 154 lbs. 22-year-old left-handed Defenseman
192nd overall in 2013 NHL Entry Draft
3 goals and 4 assists in 31 games last season as a junior for the University of Connecticut
Similar to Amorosa, Drake has never really garnered much attention from the fan base, as his low point totals and his inability to land on Central Scouting’s Final Rankings for the 2013 Draft made it understandable as to why he fell to the seventh round.
After he recorded one goal in 12 USHL games for the Des Moines Buccaneers in his draft year, Drake posted five assists and a minus-17 rating in 51 games of work for Des Moines in 2013–2014. Drake then produced back-to-back five-point seasons as a freshman and sophomore for the University of Connecticut before he manufactured three goals and four assists in 31 games as the team’s alternate captain this past year. His seven points this season was his highest point total and highest points-per-game rate since he had 10 points in 31 Bantam games in 2009–2010.
At 6’3”, the Illinois native is deemed to be a shutdown defenseman, but his weight of 154 pounds could be detrimental at the professional level. This hurts his chances of making it to the next level, as it’s obvious he doesn’t produce many points, as explained by Hockey’s Future before he started playing for the University of Connecticut:
Drake has the ideal size for a shutdown defender and is fairly mobile for a player of his size. He can move the puck and has the mindset and stamina to play large amounts of ice time. Drake’s positional play is inconsistent at times and he has shown little inclination to participate in the attack. Both areas should develop during his college career.
How He Lands an Entry-Level Contract: After he gave term to Radko Gudas, perhaps Hextall feels the need to add a similar player in the upcoming years on the opposite side of the defense. Also similar to Gudas, perhaps Drake is a low-point producing blue liner that posts great possession numbers.
Why He Won’t: If Hextall is looking for a blue liner that can mirror Gudas’ style of play on the left side he already has that in Morin. Along with Morin, several defensive prospects in the Flyers’ system have size and shutdown capability, as well as better skating abilities than Drake. The group of Morin, Sanheim, Hagg, Bernhardt, and Philippe Myers are all blue liners that have size and physicality, as well as better offensive upside than Drake.
What Likely Happens: Drake won’t be signed by the Flyers by his deadline of August 2018. His skillset seems to be of a player that wouldn’t be too successful in today’s NHL, as the league is based on speed and scoring capability among all 18 skaters a team dresses each night.
Carsen Twarynski
6’2”, 201 lbs. 19-year-old left-handed Left Winger
82nd overall in 2016 NHL Entry Draft
17 goals and 26 assists in 64 WHL games last season for the Calgary Hitmen and Kelowna Rockets
With the exception of Samuel Dove-McFalls, Carsen Twarynski is maybe the most questionable draft selection by Philadelphia since Hextall took over. Unlike Amorosa and Drake, Twarynski cracked Central Scouting’s Final Rankings for North American Skaters and also made a big jump from the mid-term rankings, where he was 95th overall, to the final rankings, where he was ranked 64th overall, in his draft year. The Orange and Black ended up picking the power forward 82nd overall in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.
After he scored 20 goals and totaled 45 points in 67 games for the Calgary Hitmen in the Western Hockey League last season, Twarynski had 10 goals and 21 points in 36 tilts for the club before they traded him to the Kelowna Rockets in early January. Twarynski registered 22 points in 28 regular-season games for Kelowna before he recorded five points while taking part in 16 of the Rockets’ 17 WHL playoff games.
Considering his rise in the rankings and the fact the Flyers’ scouting department saw him play a lot due to watching Sanheim with the Hitmen, Twarynski’s competitiveness and physical game is something that is more visible in person than through his stats. With this description of Twarynski’s style of play from Brennen York of Dobber Prospects, you can understand why Hextall decided to select this big forward in the third round:
At 6’2, 201 pounds, Carsen Twarynski fits the “Philadelphia mold” nearly perfectly. Carsen used his size and intensity to dominate opponents down low this past season, and inevitably climbed up the draft rankings after proving himself to be a physical force capable of providing offense for the WHL’s Calgary Hitmen. Though Carsen plays a physical, intimidating style, his 200-foot game is what makes him one of the most important players on the Hitmen roster. Carsen’s ability to defend passing lanes and willingness to block shots makes him an obvious choice to play in key defensive situations. The offensive side came easier to Twarynski in his second WHL season as he saw his numbers climb from 22 points (6 goals, 16 assists) in 14/15 to 45 points (20 goals, 25 assists) this past season. The 2016/17 season will be a big one for Carsen and the Hitmen, as he is expected to hit around sixty-plus points as he will see is ice time climb and his offensive role expand. At the NHL level, Carsen is a 3rd/4th liner who will likely be capable of 20–30 points per season. Skating is one area of Carsen’s game that will need to see improvement before he reaches the next level, however with another WHL season he should really be able to round out his game.
How He Lands an Entry-Level Contract: Hextall and company obviously saw something in his game that many Flyers’ fans or other teams didn’t when they took Twarynski in 2016. Although the bottom six is congested this season, it should be opening up in a few seasons with the group of Matt Read, Valtteri Filppula, Michael Raffl, and Jori Lehtera most likely off the Flyers’ roster by 2019. Add in the fact that players like Scott Laughton and Taylor Leier could make the leap to full-time NHLers as early as this season, and that Tyrell Goulbourne’s contract is most likely off the books after this season, this could be a path for Twarynski to earn an ELC.
Why He Won’t: With Wayne Simmonds, Oskar Lindblom, Dale Weise, and Sean Couturier on the roster, the Flyers have plenty of power forwards who have more offensive upside than Twarynski. Even if Simmonds ends up not being on the roster at the end of his current contract, Philadelphia has already signed Isaac Ratcliffe, while Wade Allison has a promising projection to become a successful power forward in the NHL in a few seasons.
What Likely Happens: With the addition of four wingers through this year’s draft, inviting Ivan Kosorenkov to rookie camp, and adding Brendan Warren from the Arizona Coyotes in the Nick Cousins’ deal, it seems as though Hextall felt that both wings were positions of need this offseason. That doesn’t bode well for Twarynski, who has less offensive upside and is slower than most of the players in the Flyers’ prospect pool. It seems unlikely that the forward will be a part of the organization past 2018.
Anthony Salinitri
5’11”, 170 lbs. 19-year-old left-handed Center
28 goals and 30 assists in 66 OHL games last season for the Sarnia Sting
Although he averaged under 0.5 points per game in his draft year, Salinitri jumped from 126th at the mid-term Central Scouting rankings for North American skaters to 84th in the final rankings. With this in mind, the Flyers ability to grab the speedy center at 172nd in the sixth round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft made Salinitri a good pick at the time.
After he recorded 17 goals and 13 helpers in 62 games for the Sarnia Sting of the Ontario Hockey League in 2015–2016, Salinitri significantly increased both totals in just four more games in 2016–2017, as he had 28 goals and 30 assists. Unfortunately for Sarnia and Philadelphia fans, the Sting were swept in the first round of the OHL postseason by the Erie Otters. In the sweep, Salinitri had an assist.
Despite his inability to blow spectators away with his point totals as an overager, Salinitri does possess a certain set of attributes that teams are looking for in effective bottom-six forwards. Dominic Tiano of The OHL Writers does a great job of illustrating Salinitri’s style of play:
Salinitri has good speed which is also apparent with the puck on his stick. He can be creative with the puck and can make plays. He gains zone entry with his speed and possession. He can get in on the forecheck but needs to add strength to be more effective. He will not shy away from the physical game. He’s good defensively and won’t get caught cheating. He’s also a good penalty killer. Besides adding strength, his biggest need is to find more consistency in his game.
Although Tiano’s opinion was written in February of 2016, it is still accurate to say Salinitri does need to work on his strength. However, Salinitri’s skillset of speed, craftiness, and ability to play in all three zones isn’t a prototype that teams will ever have enough of, like they would with a stay-at-home and slow d-man (Drake) or a power forward that doesn’t rack up points and still needs work on his skating (Twarynski).
How He Lands an Entry-Level Contract: Salinitri can earn a contract by going out and steadily increasing his point total for a fourth straight year in the OHL and hoping the Flyers feel they need more speed in the system. Although Philly added Frost and Sushko in this draft, the organization overall lacks players with clear breakaway speed or lightning-quick acceleration. A few other prospects (like Cooper Marody, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Tanner Laczynski, Leier, and Laughton) have the capability to add this phase of the game to the Flyers’ lineup in upcoming seasons, but the franchise still needs help at all positions when it comes to speed.
Why He Won’t: Sushko and Laczynski are still a few years away, and even speedy players who possess more offensive upside like Leier and Laughton are struggling to make the NHL roster at the moment. Having a lot of speed doesn’t necessarily guarantee a player a roster spot, in either the NHL or AHL, and Salinitri’s inability to mop up in term of points in a league where he was an older player could guide Hextall away from signing him to an entry-level contract.
What Likely Happens: Hextall has only let one of his 34 picks as GM of the Flyers walk without being signed to an ELC. That player was Dove-McFalls, who was a perplexing pick at the time. Twarynski is probably going to be the second player drafted by Hextall not to earn a contract, but he doesn’t have the most appealing skillset. There is a decent chance Salinitri won’t produce points at the next level, but he does have arguably the two most important skills to be of service in today’s league: speed and skating. If he were to ultimately be a bottom-six forward, Salinitri would be a safe bet not to lose the possession battle due to these skills. There could be a few open spots for the Phantoms in 2018–2019, which could help Salinitri become part of the Flyers’ organization.
Obviously, it would be nice for every draft pick to hit and become an important player for the organization’s NHL team. Unfortunately, every draft in every sport involves a lot of luck and unknown factors, regardless of how long a team’s personnel interview a player or watch their game footage. In fact, it’s a positive to even be having a conversation like this with the Flyers, as they will now have to let some prospects go over the coming years because the pipeline is too full, as opposed to letting prospects go because they have no potential. Realistically, the Orange and Black could walk away from all four of these players, but they each have one more season to prove they are worth an ELC. Whether Amorosa and Drake are able to stand out this year in a crowded field of left-handed defensemen, or whether Twarynski and Salinitri can still stick out despite the surplus of forwards added to the prospect pool for Philadelphia, Hextall will have to make a decision on these four players by next summer.
