Analyzing Ratcliffe’s Primary Points in 2016–2017
There may not be a general manager in the National Hockey League who values draft picks more than Philadelphia Flyers’ GM Ron Hextall. That’s why when he traded the 44th overall pick, 75th overall pick, and 108th overall pick in this year’s NHL Entry Draft to move up nine spots to take Isaac Ratcliffe at 35th overall, fans and analysts were interested to learn more about this hulking power forward. Ranked 15th on Central Scouting’s final North American skater rankings before the 2017 Draft, Ratcliffe’s availability was something that Hextall evidently couldn’t pass up.
At 6'5" and over 200 pounds, Ratcliffe is a surprisingly good skater and possesses a wrist shot that creates most of his offense. His point totals don’t jump off the page as a forward taken early in the second round, but Ratcliffe was still a leader on a rather poor Guelph Storm team in the Ontario Hockey League during the 2016–2017 season. With 28 goals, 14 primary assists, and 12 secondary assists, let’s see how Ratcliffe accomplished most of his point totals this season.
WORK AROUND THE NET
For a guy his size, it shouldn’t be too surprising that most of Ratcliffe’s work is done around the net. This is illustrated by the fact that Ratcliffe finished second among forwards on Guelph with six high-danger goals and 25 high-danger shots in all situations, and that 13 of his 28 goals in 2016–2017 were scored either in the crease or a few feet outside of it.
On top of his numbers, Ratcliffe’s quick hands came through on several of his goals with his work in close to the net. This can be seen with Ratcliffe’s between-the-legs goal on October 23rd in a 5–4 overtime loss to the Oshawa Generals and his forehand-backhand goal after he grabbed his own rebound in a loss to the Flint Firebirds on January 7th. Another example is his shot from one knee against the Windsor Spitfires on January 22nd, but he created that situation by stumbling with the puck while wide open. Ratcliffe’s reach is also a benefit near the cage, as seen on his first goal against the Mississauga Steelheads back on November 18th.
Along with his crafty hands with the puck in the blue paint, Ratcliffe utilized his size to provide screens and redirections for the Storm. That being said, only two of Ratcliffe’s goals came on redirections, as he scored in this fashion in a blowout loss to the Owen Sound Attack on January 11th and in a 6–5 overtime loss to the Kitchener Rangers on March 14th.
A few of his goals came on plays where his screens caused the opposing goaltender to produce a rebound and then he scored on that rebound. These aspects of the game are expected for a towering power forward, as well as Ratcliffe’s ability to work his way to the net for tap-in goals off of his teammates knowing where he is on the ice, so these aren’t jaw-dropping abilities. However, it is promising to see Ratcliffe play his game at the junior level rather than struggle.
RUSH GOALS
It seemed that more than a few scouts and analysts were pleased with Ratcliffe’s skating for his size. One can see where that note comes from when Ratcliffe is out there, but he also showed flashes of impressive acceleration and maneuverability for a 6’5” forward.
His acceleration can be seen with his opening goal against the Peterborough Petes on December 3rd. As for his maneuverability, a pair of goals really encapsulate this aspect of Ratcliffe’s game. The first came on December 2nd against the Erie Otters, as his game-winning goal came on a rush where he took on three different Otters. He didn’t blow by any of the opposing players, but he worked his way through the neutral zone diligently enough that he created space for himself in the offensive zone to wrist in a goal. The second came on March 17th against the Sarnia Sting, as he flipped the puck off the glass past a defender and picked it up in the neutral zone before he ripped one top shelf to tie the game.
As advertised with Ratcliffe, the skating is respectable and he isn’t going to blow past players. However, he can accelerate enough to put himself into open spaces with the puck and can avoid defenders up and down the ice.
SHOOT FIRST
Ranked 39th out of 318 forwards in the OHL and third on the Storm with 179 shots on goal last season, Ratcliffe’s game is heavily based on him shooting the puck. Of his 67 games this past season, Ratcliffe had nine games where he posted five shots on goal or more, including a seven-shot game against the Otters on November 2nd and a six-shot game against the same opponent on February 24th.
As a left-handed shooter, Ratcliffe scored eight of his 26 goals with a goaltender in the opposing net high blocker side. His ability to beat goaltenders up high turned several routine plays into goals, as Ratcliffe scored six of his 12 goals on the rush this year on rushes where each team had equal number of players involved.
Ratcliffe’s shooting didn’t just increase his goal total, it also helped his assist total. Of his 14 primary assists this season, four of Ratcliffe’s helpers were credited to the forward after a teammate knocked in a rebound off of one of his shots. Two of Guelph’s easier goals this past season came when Jake Bricknell slammed home a Ratcliffe shot that was inches from the goal line in Guelph’s blowout of the Mississauga Steelheads on November 18th and Givani Smith’s dunk on February 15th against the Sting.
ASSISTS
In addition to his four shots that resulted in assists, Ratcliffe provided 10 other primary assists this past season.
Although one could say Ratcliffe is a shoot-first type of player, he did have some very creative passes that resulted in easy goals for his teammates. This can best be exemplified with his helper on Liam Hawel’s goal on March 19th in an 8–5 loss to the Owen Sound Attack, as the Flyers’ draft pick found himself laying on his back but still managed to slide the puck across the slot to set up his teammate.
Ratcliffe also showed his ability to take over a play to set up teammates with a few of his assists. For instance, what looked like an innocent defensive zone breakout for the Ottawa 67’s in their 5–2 loss to the Storm on November 5th turned into a goal for Smith after Ratcliffe singlehandedly forced defenseman Ryan Orban into a turnover before he tossed it to Smith in the slot.
On his only primary assist I wouldn’t deem a pass or a shot in the 2016–2017 season, Ratcliffe showcased what a big-framed forward can bring to a team. In what was eventually a 6–2 loss to the London Knights on March 12th, Ratcliffe carried the puck into the offensive zone and worked his way into the slot before defenseman Olli Juolevi poked it to Nathan Schnarr (selected with the third-round pick the Arizona Coyotes acquired from Philly in exchange for the pick used to select Ratcliffe), who potted a goal.
THE STORM’S INEPTITUDE
It’s difficult to analyze how much Guelph’s poor play impacted Ratcliffe’s point totals or overall impressions on scouts and those interested in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. A total of 28 goals and 26 assists in 67 games isn’t terrible, but one has to believe those totals would have been higher if his team didn’t have the fourth-lowest goal total, most goals allowed, and finish second-to-last in the 20-team OHL. It’s easy to envision the totals would be higher thanks to Ratcliffe’s 15.77 Goals For Percentage Relative (how a team’s goals-for percentage is increased or decreased when a certain player is on the ice), which was second among the 237 skaters who played 60 or more games in the OHL in 2016–2017. A much less analytical way to interpret Ratcliffe’s impact on the Storm is the fact he was named either the first, second, or third star of the game in 11 of the 67 games he played in during last season.
The Storm’s three best players this past season seemed to be Ratcliffe, Smith, and Ryan Merkley, who will most likely be a first-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Smith, a 19-year-old winger who was selected by the Detroit Red Wings in the second round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, seems to be gifted offensively, but even he posted just 44 points in 64 games as an overager. Smith was perhaps the only thing associated with Guelph that Ratcliffe lucked into, as he provided a few goals that handed Ratcliffe assists where he didn’t do too much to earn the point (such as Guelph’s third goal in their overtime loss to the Generals on October 23rd, 2016)
Although a goal is a goal, it’s worth pointing out that 20 of Ratcliffe’s goals either came when the score was tied or when Guelph was either up or down by a goal, and that five of his goals opened the game’s scoring. Unfortunately for Ratcliffe, he can’t do everything for the team, and he didn’t receive too much help at times. A perfect example of this was the Storm’s 6–5 overtime loss to the Kitchener Rangers on March 14th. After Guelph fell to a 4–0 deficit with 5:58 left in the first period, Ratcliffe started his team’s string of five straight goals by scoring the first goal. He then provided a secondary assist on the goal that made it 4–4 and gave the Storm a 5–4 lead with just 2:38 left in regulation. Unfortunately, Flyers’ prospect Connor Bunnaman deposited his 35th goal of the season with 1:34 left to force the game to overtime, where Nick McHugh won it for Kitchener.
CONCLUSION
After watching all of his primary points in 2016–2017, Ratcliffe showed that he has a shot that he’s capable of releasing with minimal amount of space to either beat the goaltender or create a rebound for his teammates. He also showed that the crease is his office, as he often screened the goaltender, grabbed rebounds, and made plays in tight areas near the net. Hopefully for Ratcliffe and Storm fans, Guelph can rebound from the 2016–2017 season and push for a position in the OHL postseason.
