Board Up The House: The Hurricanes Are Coming
The Carolina Hurricanes might be having the best offseason across the National Hockey League. Sure, the Vegas Golden Knights have drawn a lot of attention and several teams have made noteworthy trades, but general manager Ron Francis has made a handful of quiet-yet-crucial deals and signings for the Canes. By adding a goaltender whose worth could skyrocket due to more playing time, a pair of forwards who will help the team to score goals and drive play, and a defenseman who will serve a purpose on an already young and impressive blue line, Francis hopes Carolina is looking forward to more than just moral victories this season. If the Hurricanes perform as well as expected, combined with receiving a break or two along the way, Raleigh’s hockey organization could be making noise into late April or early May.
Southern Darling
It’s safe to say that one of the bigger detriments to recent Hurricanes’ teams has been their goaltending. This past season, the Hurricanes were one of three teams to have a pair of goalies each play in 20 games or more with neither netminder posting a .905 save percentage or better. With the departure of Eddie Lack to the Calgary Flames, Francis is hoping Scott Darling’s experience in Chicago can lead to some stability in net, where the Hurricanes’ .905 save percentage in all situations since the start of the 2013–2014 season is 27th in the league.
The 28-year-old goaltender played in 95 less games than Blackhawks’ starter Corey Crawford from the 2014–2015 campaign through 2016–2017, but Darling almost posted the exact same save percentage, goals against average, goals allowed percentage, and quality start percentage as the number one over that time. Not only has Darling’s workload increased in each of his first three seasons in the NHL, but he also played in five games for the Blackhawks during their 2015 Western Conference Quarterfinals’ matchup against the Nashville Predators. After coming in to relieve Crawford to start the second period of Game 1, Darling helped Chicago win in two overtimes. He also helped the Hawks win Game 2 in regulation and Game 3 in three overtimes.
One strength of Darling’s game is his goaltending while killing penalties. Darling has posted one of the better shorthanded save percentages across the league since 2014–2015, as he is one of only three goalies to play in at least 75 games and post a .900 save percentage or better while down a man or two. Lack has an .882 save percentage (16th overall) and Cam Ward is at .873 (25th), but they had been working behind the Hurricanes’ penalty kill, who holds the lowest shots-against-per-60 rate while shorthanded in the league since 2014–2015. Darling produced one of the higher shorthanded save percentages in the NHL while with a Blackhawks’ team that has averaged 59.8 shots against per 60 while shorthanded, second-highest rate in the league, since the goalie’s first season.
Big Willie Style
In a free agency class that didn’t feature too many stellar options, adding a winger like Justin Williams is a fine option for a young Hurricanes’ team that struggles to score goals. With a cap hit of $4.5 million for each of his two seasons in Carolina, Williams is the biggest free agent to sign with the Canes since Alexander Semin inked a five-year deal worth $35 million back in 2012. Some felt as though it was too much for the 35-year-old forward but for that short of a term, several key players only being restricted free agents after this season, and still operating with over $17 million in cap space, Francis spent a little money on an investment he most likely won’t regret.
It’s fair to have concerns about a player in their mid-30’s, but there are reasons to believe Williams will do just fine with the return to his former club. On top of finishing with Washington’s third-highest Corsi For Percentage Relative for any forward with at least 50 minutes of 5-on-5 play last season with 2.9, Williams also did better away from his four most common linemates while they all did worse away from the former Conn Smythe winner.
For a group of forwards that dominate possession but can’t find the back of the net, Williams’ ability to score is what the team is more concerned about. Over the last two seasons with the Capitals, Williams produced 46 goals overall, 38 of which came at even strength, which would have been good enough to put him well ahead of Victor Rask to finish second on the team in each category behind Jeff Skinner. His 14.4 shooting percentage may have been the highest in his career, but with three seasons of shooting over 12 percent and an additional three shooting over 10 percent Williams shouldn’t see a big drop in production due to an unattainable conversion trend, like one of his former teammates. The one thing the former Los Angeles King may not be able to help Carolina solve is their power play, as the forward only has eight goals on the power play over the last two seasons.
Kruger Strengthens The Middle
After being a Vegas Golden Knight for two days, Marcus Kruger was dealt to the Hurricanes in exchange for a 2018 fifth-round pick. His cap hit of $3.083 million is fairly steep for a center who has posted a total of 38 points over the last three seasons, but he fulfills a role Carolina needs to establish strength down the middle.
With Jordan Staal and Rask set to be the top two centers, Kruger will most likely serve as the team’s third-line center. The acquisition of a bottom-six center doesn’t sound appealing, as phrases like ‘gritty’ and ‘competitive’ are often thrown around to describe these types of players, but Kruger is the ideal bottom-six player you want in today’s NHL. The points may not be there, but he has an elite ability to carry his line to positive puck possession numbers despite often having little help while taking on other teams’ top players. Amongst 261 forwards who have played in at least 2,500 5-on-5 minutes since the start of the 2013–2014 campaign, Kruger has the lowest offensive zone start percentage at 16.8 and is the only player who has a 46.6 defensive zone start percentage or higher at 52.1. Despite this scenario, Kruger has an even Corsi For Percentage Relative overall in that time and has posted a positive Corsi For Percentage Relative twice over the last four seasons. If that wasn’t enough, the only two forwards who played over 600 minutes at 5-on-5 with Kruger over the last four seasons were Ben Smith and Brandon Bollig. To say working on a possible line with Teuvo Teravainen and Lee Stempniak is an improvement would be an understatement.
Another positive for the Canes in this deal is Kruger can help reduce the number of defensive zone draws Staal will take. With the lowest offensive zone start percentage on the team at 30.6, Staal still produced 36 points at 5-on-5 play this past season and was one of 19 forwards in the NHL who played at least 750 5-on-5 minutes to post a 6.1 Corsi For Percentage Relative or better. With more shifts starting closer to the opposition’s net, and possibly a pair of 20-goal scorers as linemates, Staal’s numbers could see a rise.
Trevor van Right-handed Shot
With two defensive pairings that look to be set in stone to start next season and three left-handed defensemen already on the roster, Francis dealt a second-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft for Trevor van Riemsdyk and a seventh-round pick in the 2018 draft. This allows head coach Bill Peters to run defensive pairs that fulfill the coveted scenario of having three left-handed d-men on the left and three right-handed d-men on the right, as his third pairing could be a pair of former Blackhawks in van Riemsdyk and Klas Dahlbeck.
The idea that van Riemsdyk and Dahlbeck could be a pairing next year for Carolina isn’t too appealing, but utilizing this option to allow Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce to man the top pair while Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin serve as the second pairing may be worth it. Slavin and Pesce posted a 47.7 Score-Adjusted Corsi Against Per 60, a 54.3 Score-Adjusted Corsi For Percentage, and a 58.6 Goals For Percentage together which was good enough for second, second, and third amongst the 15 defensive pairs to play 1,000 minutes or more at 5-on-5 in 2016–2017. Faulk and Hanifin played over 700 less minutes together, but did post a better Score-Adjusted Corsi Against Per 60 and Score-Adjusted Corsi For Percentage than Slavin and Pesce did this past season in their limited time together. Faulk’s main partner during the 2016–2017 season was Ron Hainsey, who is now with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
After a season in which he posted a fair amount of points at 5-on-5 and was a breakeven player in terms of possession, Van Riemsdyk has enough mobility to help the Hurricanes’ blue line at a cheap cap hit of $825,000 before becoming an RFA in the summer of 2018. Unfortunately, Dahlbeck was one of the worst d-men in the league last season in terms of possession, but there could be a few other options in Carolina’s system that could play in a limited role. Trevor Carrick and Philip Samuelsson are a pair of left-handed defensemen who only have 15 games of NHL experience between them, but they could earn a shot out of camp or if Dahlbeck struggles early. Francis also said that prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown could crack the roster out of camp. Whoever fills in as the sixth defenseman, Francis’ acquisition of TVR improved the Hurricanes’ defense while keeping them young, cheap, and effective.
Do These Moves Make Carolina a Playoff Team?
The Canes have definitely done enough this offseason to drastically improve their chances of making the postseason for the first time since they were swept by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2009 Eastern Conference Final. Some clubs in the Eastern Conference have lost key pieces or punched above their weight last season, while some other clubs missed the postseason due to injuries or off-ice issues.
The Capitals and Penguins may have lost several players this offseason, but they haven’t altered their rosters enough to fall out of the conversation for the Stanley Cup let alone missing the playoffs altogether. The Montreal Canadiens let Alexander Radulov leave, but they brought in Jonathan Drouin and will still be icing Shea Weber and Carey Price nightly to prevent the opposition from scoring, so they too seem like a lock for the 2018 postseason even if they don’t win the Atlantic Division again. Despite squeaking into the 2017 postseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs seem to be the team most poised to take a giant leap forward this season and should be making noise in the 2018 postseason.
The New York Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets are having interesting summers, and there are arguments that can be made that either team has moved closer to winning it all or moved further away. The Rangers landed Kevin Shattenkirk, but they lost Derek Stepan and reliable backup goaltender Antti Raanta. The Blue Jackets took a chance on exchanging Brandon Saad for Artemi Panarin, who prodcued in a pair of seasons alongside Patrick Kane, and are hoping Sergei Bobrovsky replicates his 2016–2017 season, which allowed him to win his second career Vezina Trophy. More likely than not, these two teams still round out the top four in the Metro Division.
If this scenario pans out, that leaves one possible spot for the Hurricanes to grab. With the Tampa Bay Lightning likely to shoot up the standings thanks to being much healthier than they were last season, it looks like one of the two Wild Card spots will be handed out to the Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators, New York Islanders, and Philadelphia Flyers. Can Carolina come out on top of this field? Will some teams fall out of their usual positioning in the standings due to unexpected injuries or drastic drops in production from multiple players? As it stands right now, the Hurricanes will have their best chance to make the postseason in years. Even if Francis’ team doesn’t make the playoffs this year, the Hurricanes consist of several young players and will be adding several intriguing prospects to the team over the next few seasons.
