Comparing Central Scouting Rankings To The 2017 NHL Draft
The National Hockey League Central Scouting Services has been ranking draft-eligible prospects since it was established right before the 1975–1976 season. The department scouts skaters and goalies from all over the world and compiles who they feel are the best North American skaters, North American goalies, European skaters, and European goalies. These aren’t the only players available for NHL teams to pick on draft weekend, but rather who the CSS think are the best based on skill and likelihood to succeed in the NHL.
Since goaltending in hockey is maybe the most difficult position to scout for across any of the four major sports, I decided to look solely at the CSS’ rankings for skaters and how they differed from where players were actually picked in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. Some players went much higher or much lower than anticipated by CSS, most likely due to a team’s need at a certain position or a team just felt more confident in what their scouts were saying over the rankings. Some players are just held in high regard by teams that don’t care about the rankings. Either way, this draft was no different than others when it came to a handful of players being picked in completely different spots than CSS had them.
Biggest First-Round Steals in the Draft
Gabe Vilardi, Los Angeles Kings at 11
Finishing fourth overall in the final North American rankings for skaters, Vilardi was ranked third overall in CSS’ mid-term rankings behind Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick. Although he dropped a spot for the final rankings, the fact Vilardi went outside the top ten is still surprising. The 6’2” center racked up 29 goals and 32 assists for 61 points in 49 games for the Windsor Spitfires in the Ontario Hockey League this past season thanks to his strong 200-foot game, ability to play both a physical and finesse game, and his ability to dominate puck possession.
Fortunately for Los Angeles, Vilardi wasn’t the only player they nabbed well past their CSS Ranking. Left-handed defenseman Mikey Anderson fell to the Kings at 103 after he finished 51st overall among North American skaters, while another LHD in Markus Phillips was taken at 118 after he ranked 50th overall in the final rankings.
Timothy Liljegren, Toronto Maple Leafs at 17
At one time regarded as possibly the best defenseman in the 2017 Draft class, Liljegren ended up being the sixth d-man taken. This came after Liljegren moved up CSS Rankings from seventh among European skaters at the mid-term to sixth on the final rankings. An offensive defenseman that has amazing skating skills, puckhandling skills, and hockey sense, Liljegren had five points in 19 games for Rogle BK in the Swedish Hockey League in 2016–2017.
The Maple Leafs also managed to grab Ryan McGregor at 172 despite the fact the 6’0” center was ranked 107th on the final rankings of North American skaters. Unfortunately, they also used the 124th overall pick on Vladislav Kara, an unranked center who was well under a point-per-game in Russia’s Molodezhnaya Hokkeinaya Liga.
Klim Kostin, St. Louis Blues at 31
In exchange for gritty forward Ryan Reaves and the 51st overall pick in this year’s draft, the Blues acquired Oskar Sundqvist and the 31st overall pick from the Pittsburgh Penguins. With the 31st overall pick St. Louis selected Kostin, a 6’2” center who was the highest ranked European skater by CSS throughout the season. Thanks to a shoulder injury, Kostin was one of the bigger mysteries in this draft with his point total of two in 18 games this season not helping his case. Being 6’3” with nothing but power, speed, and puckhandling skills was evidently too much for the Blues to pass up, however, as they may have grabbed the biggest steal in the draft.
Kostin wasn’t the only European skater that fell to St. Louis, as the Blues also grabbed Alexey Toropchenko at 113. Another towering forward who is set to play for the OHL’s Guelph Storm in 2017–2018, Toropchenko was ranked 21st among European skaters.
Biggest Steals Based on Central Scouting Rankings For North American Skaters
Alexander Chmelevski and Ivan Chekhovich, San Jose Sharks at 185 and 212
The San Jose Sharks grabbed the two biggest fallers in this year’s draft based on CSS, as they picked center Chmelevski at 185 and left winger Chekhovich at 212.
Chmelevski is a speedy playmaker with vision who entered the draft ranked 43rd on the North American skaters rankings. With 21 goals and 43 points in 58 games for the Ottawa 67’s of the OHL, Chmelevski wasn’t necessarily considered a first-round pick by many, but he wasn’t anticipated to go late in the sixth round.
Also a fast, dynamic forward, Chekhovich’s drop to the seventh round was a bit of a surprise, but his point totals this year could have scared teams away. With 26 goals and 33 assists for 59 points in 60 games, Chekhovich was just under a point-per-game player for Baie-Comeau Drakkar in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, which is considered to be the easiest of the three major junior hockey leagues to amass points in.
Despite owning two of the bigger steals in this draft, the Sharks were also the team that reached the most in the first round. With all but 18 of the players in the draft class available to them, San Jose took Joshua Norris at 19. Considered a good two-way forward who can skate well, Norris posted 26 points in 25 USHL games last season, as well as 61 points in 61 games for the United States National Team Development Program. That being said, Norris did enter the draft ranked 34th on CSS’ final rankings for North American skaters.
Jakub Galvas, Chicago Blackhawks at 150
Ranked 26th on the final rankings for North American skaters, left-handed d-man Galvas managed to fall all the way to the Blackhawks late in the fifth round. Not only was he ranked high, Galvas served as an effective two-way defenseman for HC Olomuc in the Czech Republic’s Tipsport Extraliga (the highest level of hockey in the Czech Republic) for 36 games and amassed six points in the process. Galvas also represented the Czech Republic in the Ivan Hlinka Memorial Cup and U-18 International Ice Hockey Federation World Junior Championship last season.
Although they also landed center Evan Barratt in the third round, the Blackhawks selected three players who didn’t show up on CSS’ final rankings. The trio of right-handed defenseman Roope Laavainen (picked 119th overall), left winger Parker Foo (144th), and left-handed defenseman Josh Ess (215th) all failed to appear on the final rankings for either North American or European skaters.
Laavainen could be considered a reach as a Finnish blue liner taken in the fourth round who has yet to play above U20 competition. Foo will most likely be considered a reach as well, as the fifth rounder just finished a 66-point campaign with the Brooks Bandits in the Alberta Junior Hockey League and is set to play for Union College in 2017–2018. Ess is a pretty smart pick as a collegiate-bound blue liner who was taken with the third-of-last pick in the draft.
Robbie Stucker, Columbus Blue Jackets at 210
With one of the last few picks in the draft overall, the Blue Jackets landed 6'3" defenseman Stucker. Despite the fact he was ranked 88th by CSS and is a right-handed shot, Stucker somehow fell to late in the seventh round. However, there isn’t too much information in terms of scouting on the blue liner and although he posted 40 points in 25 games last year, it did come in high school hockey action. That being said, general manager Jarmo Kekalainen and Columbus’ front office did a good job selecting a defenseman so late in the draft that could work his way up the organizational ranks.
Biggest Steals Based on Central Scouting Rankings For European Skaters
Andrei Svetlakov, Minnesota Wild at 178
Although he came into the draft ranked 48th among European skaters, it’s understandable why Svetlakov fell to the Wild at 178. A 21-year-old playmaking center, Svetlakov has played the last two seasons in the KHL, as he posted 16 points in 37 games for CSKA Moscow this past season.
It’s a good pick for Minnesota, as Svetlakov is more of a finished product being that he is three years past his draft class and is already playing in one of the world’s best leagues, but there is always a chance Svetlakov will remain in Russia even when Minnesota feels he is skilled enough to come over to North America.
Erik Walli Walterholm, Arizona Coyotes at 190
Being a European skater who has yet to play against grown men, Walterholm fell way past his CSS ranking of 62 to 190 to become a product of the Arizona Coyotes. The 6'1" right winger did what he could to impress NHL teams, as he compiled 46 points in 34 games in U-18 action as well as a goal in 11 games for Djurgardens IF U-20 in Sweden’s SuperElit league last season. However, some felt that picking Walterholm here was a bit of a perplexing decision. Slated to play in the SuperElit next season, maybe Walterholm will get the chance to prove he was worth the gamble in the seventh round for Arizona.
The Coyotes had an interesting draft weekend. Along with Walterholm, Arizona grabbed big two-way center Nathan Schnarr and goal-magnet overager Tyler Steenbergen later in the draft than CSS anticipated. However, their first-round pick, 6’2” left-handed defenseman Pierre-Olivier Joseph, was selected at 23rd overall despite being ranked at 27 by CSS for North American skaters.
Lucas Elvenes, Vegas Golden Knights at 127
Elvenes probably has the best chance of making the NHL out of this group of forwards, as the 18th ranked European skater dropped to Vegas at 127th overall in the fifth round. On top of producing 45 points in 41 games with Rogle BK U20 in the SuperElit, Elvenes also appeared in 12 games for Rogle BK in the SHL.
An elusive high-end skater who is great at puck handling and passing, the biggest reason Elvenes may have fallen is for the simple fact scouts weren’t able to see as much of his game as they would have if he was a North American player. On top of being a speedy 6'1" center, Elvenes can also produce on the power play. The Golden Knights are a team building for the future, and there is a chance Elvenes could be a part of that.
Along with Elvenes, the Golden Knights found another faller in their 12 picks in this draft, as they selected center Nick Campoli 158th overall. Campoli, who had 32 points in 20 games for the North York Rangers in the Ontario Junior Hockey League this past season, finished 73rd on CSS’ final rankings. He will play for Clarkson University in 2017–2018.
Biggest Reaches Based on Central Scouting Rankings
Zachary Lauzon, Pittsburgh Penguins at 51
With the pick they acquired in the Reaves’ deal, the Penguins selected left-handed defenseman Lauzon. The Rouyn-Noranda Husky accumulated 21 points and 90 penalty minutes in 63 games in the QMJHL this past season. Similar to the usual questions about a forward who doesn’t rack up points in the QMJHL, there are often concerns about defensemen selected from this junior league. In defense of the rearguard CSS ranked at 143 going into the draft, Lauzon won the Kevin Lowe Trophy as the league’s best defenseman, an honor that was given to a name many Pens’ fans are familiar with.
Johnathan Kovacevic, Winnipeg Jets at 74
The Jets picked 6’3” right-handed defenseman Kovacevic 74th overall. The 20-year-old who had 19 points in 36 games this season for Merrimack College as a freshman finished 155 in CSS’ final rankings. Similar to Svetlakov, the Jets took advantage of drafting an older player who is closer to showing what type of player they will be once they reach their prime. Although the difference in where Winnipeg drafted him and his CSS rank doesn’t look great, Kovacevic is already being recognized as a good defenseman by many.
The Jets seemed to ignore the CSS rankings often this draft. Along with Kovacevic, the trio of left-handed defenseman Dylan Samberg, right-handed defenseman Leon Gawanke, and left-handed rearguard Croix Evingson were all taken well before where CSS ranked them. Samberg was drafted 43rd overall after being ranked 67th, Gawanke was picked 136th overall despite being ranked 200th, and Evingson was picked 211th after missing CSS’ final rankings altogether.
Brandon Crawley, New York Rangers at 123
Crawley found himself a member of the Rangers’ organization after they selected him 123rd overall in this year’s draft despite finishing 199th in CSS’ final rankings. Another overager, Crawley is a 20-year-old defensive left-handed defenseman who totaled 27 points and 114 penalty minutes in 61 games for the London Knights of the OHL. It’s an interesting choice for New York, as Crawley is known for choosing to play the physical game as opposed to using mobility and offensive instincts.
Although they may have reached for Crawley in the fourth round, the Rangers grabbed a pair of fallers in the sixth round with Dominik Lakatos and Morgan Barron. Lakatos is a 20-year-old center who was picked at 157 after he finished at 50 among European skaters following his 22-point season in 41 games for Bili Tygri Liberec in Czech’s Tipsport Extraliga. Barron is a 6’3” center that went 174th overall after he finished 98th overall in CSS’ rankings who will play for Cornell University next season.
Teams that Took Central Scouting’s Advice
Nashville Predators
The Preds displayed their ability to draft and develop in this year’s Stanley Cup Final, as players like Viktor Arvidsson, Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Pekka Rinne all played major roles in the team’s run to the final.
General manager David Poile looked to continue that trend at this year’s draft, as each of the five skaters Nashville drafted were taken later than where CSS ranked them. The Predators also took Czech goaltender Tomas Vomacka 154th overall.
Minnesota Wild
After Minnesota prospects Jordan Greenway, Kirill Kaprizov, Luke Kunin, and Joel Eriksson Ek all had impressive performances at the most recent IIHF World Junior Championship, it looks as though the Wild most likely continued their trend of picking NHL-bound prospects in this draft.
Although they didn’t have a first-round pick or second-round pick this draft, the Wild’s six picks over the last four rounds were each taken later than their CSS’ rankings.
Teams that Didn’t Take Central Scouting’s Advice
Detroit Red Wings
If there is one team in the NHL who can go against the grain of popular opinion when it comes to ranking draft-eligible prospects it is the Detroit Red Wings. That being said, the Red Wings went heavily against CSS rankings from the fourth round on in this year’s draft, as four of their final five picks were not ranked.
The only player that was ranked, 6’2” right-handed defenseman Cole Fraser, was picked way before his ranking, as he went 131st and was ranked 197th among North American skaters.
Pittsburgh Penguins
There isn’t going to be much concern from fans or analysts of Pittsburgh, because of the back-to-back Stanley Cup titles, but the Pens also went against CSS rankings in this draft.
Aside from 20-year-old Swedish center Linus Olund, who was taken 155th overall after he was ranked at 57 among European skaters, each of the Pens’ other five draft selections were taken well before their CSS ranking. It also doesn’t help they didn’t have a first-round pick in this year’s draft.
The fun (or frustrating) part of drafting is nobody will know for years if these picks were truly good or bad. Depending on which team picked the player, somebody who was highly regarded going into the draft can see their value decline over the years due to how they are handled during their development and vice versa. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how highly regarded a prospect is by CSS, fans, or analysts. All that matters is if they eventually help their organization at the American Hockey League or the NHL level.
