Erik Karlsson Deserved More Conn Smythe Votes
Despite not playing in the Stanley Cup Final, Erik Karlsson earned a third-place vote for The Conn Smythe Trophy, which is awarded to the player who is deemed most valuable to a team’s success during the NHL postseason. Considering how rare it is for a player who did not win the Stanley Cup to be awarded the Conn Smythe, the fact Karlsson received a vote, despite not reaching the final round, speaks volumes. However, when you consider just how important the Swedish defenseman was to his team’s success, Karlsson should have earned more votes.
With Sidney Crosby winning the Conn Smythe this season, the team that has won the Stanley Cup has provided the postseason’s most valuable player 47 times in the 52 years the award has been doled out. Of the five players who have won the award playing for the losing team in the Final, four of them have been goaltenders. The Philadelphia Flyers’ Reggie Leach, who had 19 goals and 24 points in 16 postseason games during the 1976 NHL postseason, is the only skater to win the Conn Smythe while playing for the losing team. The fact Karlsson received a vote at all is surprising, considering how much of the voting for this award is based on team success.
BEST OPTION FOR 3RD PLACE
It’s hard to argue Crosby and Evgeni Malkin weren’t the two best options for the award this season. Crosby’s 27 points put him second across the league in scoring during the postseason, while he was also over a point-per-game player in three of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ playoff series’ and led the league with 19 assists during the postseason (including 3 helpers during Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final). Malkin led the postseason in scoring with 28 points, as he finished second in the league in both goals and assists. After those two, the rest of the options from the Final become debatable.
Jake Guentzel led the postseason with 13 goals, but he spent the entire postseason feeding off Crosby and failed to produce a goal in Pittsburgh’s closest series against the Ottawa Senators. Phil Kessel finished third in postseason scoring with 23 points and he too had three points in Game 5 of the Final, but his game-winning goal late in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Sens was his last difference-making performance. None of the Pens’ defense is worth mentioning, while Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury hurt one another’s chances by questioning just how difficult it is to backstop this Pens’ team to success.
As for the Nashville Predators, most of their Conn Smythe candidates hurt themselves with their performances in the Final. Pekka Rinne deserved the most recognition after the first three rounds of the postseason, but his .888 save percentage in the Final and .756 save percentage in Pittsburgh killed any chance he had of winning. The dominant top line of Viktor Arvidsson-Ryan Johansen-Filip Forsberg failed to put up points during the series. Johansen missed the series with an injury, while the pair of Forsberg and Arvidsson combined for two goals, one of which was Forsberg’s empty-net goal in Game 4. The Predators’ defense had four defensemen who could have earned consideration for the trophy. P.K. Subban was the most impactful blue liner for Nashville but the play of Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, and Roman Josi hurt Subban’s chances of being singled out despite his league leading 46.59 Corsi Against (shot attempts against) per 60 minutes rate at 5-on-5.
AMAZING NUMBERS WITH ONE LESS SERIES
According to NaturalStatTrick, seven defensemen played 400 minutes or more at 5-on-5 this postseason with Erik Karlsson being the only one not to be on Nashville or Pittsburgh. Karlsson’s 28:07 minutes of ice-time-per-game in the postseason was the highest for any player on the four teams to reach the Conference Finals, as the next closest average was Cam Folwer, who played 26:30 a night for the Anaheim Ducks. Karlsson also finished sixth in postseason scoring with 18 points, the highest point total for a defenseman in these playoffs. His 0.95 points-per-game average during the playoffs was fourth in the NHL behind only Crosby, Malkin, and the Anaheim Ducks’ Ryan Getzlaf for players who reached the Conference Finals.
Along with his counting stats, Karlsson had ridiculous possession stats as well. The Senator finished eighth amongst defensemen with at least 200 minutes of 5-on-5 play in the playoffs with a 53.39 Corsi For percentage and 11th with a 51.62 Fenwick For (unblocked shot attempts) percentage. He posted even better shot suppression rates, as his Corsi Against per 60 minutes rate of 48.32 was good for fifth across the league during the playoffs. Karlsson’s 34.99 Fenwick Against per 60 minutes and 25.33 Shots Against per 60 minutes were both good enough for third in the NHL during the playoffs, as Nashville’s pairing of Yannick Weber and Matt Irwin (who played far fewer minutes per night and saw easier competition) were the only two players ahead of him.
In terms of how much he impacted his team, Karlsson finished seventh in the league for defensemen with at least 200 minutes of 5-on-5 play with a 3.48 Corsi For Relative per 60 minutes. He also finished first in the postseason with a -11.06 Corsi Against Relative per 60 minutes, 6.77 Corsi For Percentage Relative, and a -8.35 Fenwick Against Relative per 60 minutes.
When it came to Karlsson’s supporting cast, Bobby Ryan’s 15 points made him the only other Sen to produce 12 or more points during the team’s 19-game run. Ottawa’s special teams didn’t support Karlsson much, as the Senators ranked 14th in the postseason with an 11.5 power-play percentage and 10th with an 81.3 penalty-kill percentage. Craig Anderson posted a .922 save percentage during the postseason, which is very good, but he wasn’t single-handedly stealing games or series for the Senators. As for his defensive partner Marc Methot, Karlsson posted a 59.31 Corsi For percentage away from Methot during this postseason at 5-on-5 while Methot posted a 45.61 Corsi For percentage away from Karlsson.
All of this is after you factor in that Senators’ head coach Guy Boucher implemented a 1–3–1 system throughout the season and postseason, which usually slows the game down and limits the opportunity for players playing the system to risk defensive responsibility to create offensively. It’s also worth mentioning Karlsson accomplished all of this playing with four torn tendons and two hairline fractures in his foot.
When you look at the Senators’ roster and consider what their expectations were heading into the postseason, the fact Karlsson only received one Conn Smythe vote may be misleading. The blue liner didn’t deserve to win it, but he probably deserved a few more third-place votes, maybe even a second-place vote.
