Worth a Shot: The Players Who Had Their Seasons Defined by Shot Efficiency
Shooting percentage is a tricky thing to interpret when it comes to judging a player’s game or season. The players who are known as snipers and great goal scorers in the league tend to shoot above league average regularly, while skaters who are regarded as fourth-line talents and stay-at-home defensemen tend to finish well below the league average for shooting percentage due to their skill level. However, each season there are players who have a season that they will most likely never replicate, whether that is a good thing or a bad thing. Whether these stat lines are a product of newly found skill, luck, or a combination of both, the following skaters had seasons that were heavily influenced by shot efficiency.
Hey Man, Nice Shot
The three players listed below, through either skill or luck, produced three of the better goal-scoring seasons across the NHL despite posting average to below average shot generation totals.
T.J. Oshie — Washington Capitals
It’s hard to argue against Oshie’s abilities with the puck on his stick, but it’s also hard to argue he wasn’t lucky this year for a few reasons. The American winger potted 33 goals on just 143 total shots on goal for a whopping 23.1 shooting percentage. Oshie is the first forward to post a 23 percent shooting percentage or higher with at least 140 shots on goal since Cam Neely deposited 50 for the Boston Bruins on 185 shots (in 49 games!) during the 1993–1994 campaign for a shooting percentage of 27. If Oshie’s 143 shots on goal (which was tied for 184th in the league) isn’t enough to say Oshie received some puck luck this year, perhaps the fact he finished tied for 209th with 250 iCorsi (individual shot attempts) can help that argument. Both these totals were the fewest for any of the 26 30-goal scorers last season, as the player who finished with the second fewest in each category behind Oshie had 17 more shots on goal and 28 more iCorsi.
On top of his production at a rate that was a bit fortunate for the number of shots and shot attempts he provided, Oshie was a bit lucky this season because his 33-goal season landed him an eight-year contract worth $46 million. An average annual value of $5.75 million isn’t too much for a good top-six forward, but giving out the term of eight years to a 30-year-old seems like a bit much for Oshie. With the assumption that the Washington Capitals would be losing Oshie, Justin Williams, and Karl Alzner this offseason, general manager Brian MacLellan decided to keep Oshie while he let Williams and Alzner walk. MacLellan then dealt Marcus Johansson to the New Jersey Devils for a few picks in order to save cap space.
Oshie’s efficient shooting season landed him a lucrative contract and allowed MacLellan to open up a situation where he’s overpaying a forward for several years after the Caps are a Stanley Cup contender. The former St. Louis Blue has crafty hands and a good shot, but it’ll be a tall order to duplicate this season.
Paul Byron — Montreal Canadiens
Byron used his speed to help create scoring chances, as he finished with the second-highest shooting percentage across the league for players with at least 500 minutes played this season with 22.9. The former Calgary Flame has figured out how to shoot with efficiency, as his 22.6 shooting percentage is well above anybody else over the last two seasons among players who have played 140 games or more, but Byron doubled his career-high for goals in a season with 22 thanks to more playing time and his highest shooting percentage for a full season.
With 22 goals on just 96 shots, Byron became the third player since the lost season of 2004–2005 to pot over 20 goals on 100 shots or less, as Sergei Kostitsyn scored 23 goals on 93 shots in 2010–2011 for the Nashville Predators and Patrick Eaves put 20 pucks home on 100 shots in 2005–2006 for the Ottawa Senators. Not only did Byron have under 100 shots on goal, he also only had 158 iCorsi, which is the lowest iCorsi total ever for any player who has scored 20 goals or more in a season since it first started being tracked in 2007–2008. Although he saw the ice for the most amount of time for a single season over his career, Byron didn’t use it to his advantage as he ranked 214th out of 225 forwards with 1,000 minutes of ice time last season with a shots-per-60 rate of 4.72.
Byron is a player that could center the argument of ‘luck vs. skill’ when it comes to abnormally high or low shooting percentages, as he has finished four of his seven seasons in the NHL shooting above 20 percent, but this year it did seem as though a lot of things went right for the Canadien.
Mark Scheifele — Winnipeg Jets
The aforementioned player who finished behind Oshie with the lowest shots and iCorsi totals for a 30-goal scorer this season was Scheifele. What makes this look even worse for Scheifele is the fact he played 11 more games than Oshie this season and barely outproduced the University of North Dakota alumni. Scheifele, much like Oshie, is a very talented forward, but he definitely received some good fortunate this season.
Despite posting his lowest shots on goal and shot attempt totals since becoming a first-line regular back in 2014–2015, Scheifele broke the 30-goal plateau for the first time in his career with 32 and was also a point-per-game player for the first time in his career with 82 points in 79 games. His 5.91 shots-per-60 rate, which was good enough for 179th out of 225 forwards with 1,000 minutes of ice time this season, didn’t stop Scheifele from posting a shooting percentage of 20 on 160 shots after recording a 12.2 shooting percentage on 475 shots in his first five seasons.
Similar to how Byron is pushing the ability to produce on limited opportunities due to his speed, Scheifele most likely saw an efficient shooting season thanks to the skill level of his linemates. Of his 1217:09 5-on-5 ice time last season, Scheifele’s highest total on a line was with Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine for 266 minutes. Ehlers is one of the most elusive and fastest players in the league with the puck on his stick, which helped him score 25 goals this year, while Laine is one of the purest shooters in the league and shot 17.6 percent despite just completing his rookie season. As a line, the trio’s 5.2 goals per 60 was the highest out of the 80 lines that played at least 200 minutes together last season and their 60.5 goals-for percentage was good enough for 26th, but they also finished 62nd in that group with a 48.9 score-adjusted corsi-for percentage.
Honorable Mentions for Luck/Efficiency
Artem Anisimov (Chicago Blackhawks)
Spending two-thirds of his 5-on-5 ice time with the dynamic duo of Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane, Anisimov shot 21 percent to pot 22 goals on 105 shots.
Brett Connolly (Washington Capitals)
Despite finishing 459th in the league with 131 iCorsi, Connolly managed to score 15 goals. He had the lowest individual shot attempt total for any player who finished with 10 goals or more.
Anders Lee (New York Islanders)
In a three-way tie with Kane and David Pastrnak for 10th in the league in goals scored with 34, Lee was the only player of the 12 who potted 34 goals or more this season to have under 200 shots on goal. Lee was the first player to produce 34 goals or more on 200 shots or less since Jordan Eberle scored 34 goals on 180 shots in 2011–2012 for the Edmonton Oilers.
Them’s The Breaks
These players were either one of the better shot generators in the league this past season but scored at a rate less than that which they deserved or players who just couldn’t score to save their lives.
Riley Sheahan — Detroit Red Wings
The best way to summarize Sheahan’s season is to say that his stat line of two goals on 109 shots on goal doesn’t explain how unlucky he was in 2016–2017. The University of Notre Dame grad started the season on a 79-game goal drought that saw him fail to put the puck in the net on his first 106 shots of the season before scoring twice on three shots in the regular season finale. If not scoring wasn’t enough to give his head coach Jeff Blashill headaches, Sheahan managed to rock his bench boss in the dome weeks before he scored his first goal of the year.
Sheahan became the seventh forward to see 1,000 minutes of ice time in a single season and fail to produce more than two goals. The Red Wing also became the third forward to produce 105 shots or more and fail to score more than two goals joining Shawn Thornton, who had one goal on 119 shots for the Boston Bruins in 2009–2010, and Tomas Kopecky, who had a pair of goals on 106 shots in 2014–2015 with the Florida Panthers. Sheahan had the unluckiest season of the three, as his 197 iCorsi topped Thornton’s 176 iCorsi in 2009–2010 and Kopecky’s 184 iCorsi in 2014–2015.
Although he’s never been a big goal scorer at any level, Sheahan has proven he has more skill than that of a player who can only deposit two goals in a season. It’s safe to chalk up this season to bad luck, as he had just two more shot attempts in the 2015–2016 season, but produced 14 goals.
Nathan MacKinnon — Colorado Avalanche
The 2016–2017 Colorado Avalanche will go down as the worst team during the 30-team NHL era, so it’s not too surprising to see one of their best players on here. Despite finishing 16th with 251 shots on goal, Nathan MacKinnon only scored 16 goals this season. This wasn’t just unfortunate for the first overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, it was also very unfortunate for the Avalanche, who did far better in terms of unblocked shot rates with MacKinnon on the ice compared to when the forward was on the bench.
MacKinnon finished 16th among forwards with 435 shot attempts and tied for 48th with 81 missed shots, but despite his willingness to throw the rubber at the cage he still managed to become the sixth forward to ever post 250 shots or more while also totaling 16 goals or less. It also marked the eighth time a forward shot at 6.5 percent or less while also producing 250 shots or more in a season, as MacKinnon’s 6.4 shooting percentage was the lowest for any of the 51 forwards who had 200 shots or more this year.
Although he’s never posted high shooting percentages, MacKinnon posted the lowest of his career this season despite generating his highest shot and shot attempt totals for a single season. MacKinnon’s lowest goal total came in 2014–2015 with 14, but that total came in 18 less games than this season. It doesn’t look like the Avs will be all that much better in 2017–2018, but hopefully MacKinnon can catch a few more breaks on a personal level to receive more attention for being a remarkable dynamic forward.
Patrice Bergeron — Boston Bruins
With the second-lowest shooting percentage for forwards with over 250 shots on goal this past season with seven, Bergeron reached several benchmarks in terms of producing chances with little results. After a pair of 30-goal seasons over the last three years, Bergeron cracked the 300-shot plateau for the first time since his first full NHL season back in 2005–2006, but barely broke 20 goals despite being a part of the most dominant possession line in the league this year.
Bergeron was one of just four players to pump 300 shots on net during the 2016–2017 campaign, as his 302 shots placed him third in the league. The trio of Alex Ovechkin, Brent Burns, and Tyler Seguin each hit the 300-shot count as well, but each of them finished with at least 26 goals. In fact, Bergeron’s stat line of scoring just 21 goals on over 300 shots is just the second time a player has accomplished this feat as Jason Blake deposited 15 goals on 332 shots for the Toronto Maple Leafs in what turned out to be a very rough 2007–2008 season for the Minnesota-born forward. Bergeron also finished in a tie with Burns this past season when it came to games with at least five shots on goal without scoring a goal, as the pair each had 20 instances of this type of game.
What probably made Bergeron’s season even more infuriating for his teammates and fans is the fact that his line with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak was the best line in terms of possession last season. Out of 17 lines that played at least 500 minutes together during 5-on-5 play last season, Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak finished first with a 62.4 score-adjusted corsi-for percentage (3.5 higher than the second-best line), 73.5 score-adjusted corsi for per 60 (4.4 higher than second), and a score-adjusted corsi-against-per-60 rate of 44.2 (2.1 lower than second). Bergeron’s linemates looked like they stole his luck, as Marchand had 39 goals during a career year and Pastrnak potted 34 goals during a breakout campaign.
Jakub Voracek — Philadelphia Flyers
To complete the trio of forwards with over 250 shots on net with a shooting percentage lower than eight, Voracek put home 20 goals on 253 shots for a 7.9 shooting percentage. The former Columbus Blue Jacket may have had only 11 goals last year and could possibly be trending in the wrong direction when it comes to puck possession, but he still finished 14th in the NHL with 253 shots on goal and 10th with 477 individual shot attempts. Completing a second straight season with a below-average shooting percentage, it’s fair if Flyers’ fans begin to wonder if this trend will continue or if Voracek can grab a few bounces during the 2017–2018 season.
Voracek put in the work to have a season that provided a higher point total, but despite a career highs in shots, total shot attempts, and time on ice Voracek managed to score less goals this year than he did in the 48-game lockout shortened 2012–2013 season. When comparing him to the Flyers’ leading goal scorer Wayne Simmonds, it’s safe to say Voracek didn’t benefit from many bounces this season. Despite having 29 more shots, 76 more shot attempts, and hitting just two less posts than Simmonds, Voracek finished with 11 less goals than that of the second-round pick in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.
Voracek has never been much of a goal scorer, but he has provided a few more goals on less production in seasons past. Perhaps the youth that will be added to the Flyers’ roster in Nolan Patrick and Oskar Lindblom will help Voracek rediscover his scoring touch. The addition of Kris Knoblauch as the team’s power-play oriented assistant coach could also help, as Voracek totaled six power-play goals over the last two seasons after he posted 11 in 2014–2015 and eight in both 2013–2014 and 2012–2013.
Honorable Mentions for being Unlucky/Inefficient
Torey Krug/Shayne Gostisbehere
These two can be grouped together because they had very identical seasons, as the two mobile blue liners threw a lot of pucks towards the net but couldn’t score many goals. The pair were the only players to finish in the top 20 for iCorsi that failed to produce at least 10 goals, as Krug had nine goals on his 17th-best 463 shot attempts and Gostisbehere had seven goals on 445 shot attempts, which was 20th in the league. The two also finished top 10 in terms of shots for d-men, as Krug finished eighth with 208 and Gostisbehere finished 10th with 198. Gostisbehere may pull ahead a bit in terms of being unluckier, as he finished 11th in the league with 105 missed shots and was one of eight players this season to have 105 missed shots or more and hit the post six times or more.
Colton Parayko (St. Louis Blues)
The Blues’ rearguard started the season on a 40-game goal drought despite getting 100 shots on goal. Parayko was also the only blue liner this season to have five goals or less on 180 shots or more, as he had four goals on 188 shots.
“You miss 100 percent of the shots you take.” — Bizarro Wayne Gretzky
Brooks Orpik (Washington Capitals)
Orpik is a player who doesn’t provide much offensive upside or quality shots on net, but the fact he threw 93 shots on goal and attempted 181 shots without a single goal is pretty unlucky regardless of skill level. The Caps’ defenseman had the most shots and shot attempts in the league this year for a player who failed to score a single goal.
It’s not too likely any of these players will find themselves on this list next season, unless their luck continues to trend in either the right or wrong direction. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to gauge who will end up on this list year after year, which makes shooting percentage one of the more difficult statistics to forecast.
