Joint Column: NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Preview
The outlook is bleak for LeBron haters
With the NBA playoffs less than a week away, Thomas Jenkins and I exchanged a few emails discussing the most intriguing storylines heading into an otherwise seemingly predictable postseason in the Eastern Conference.
Thomas:
I look at the Eastern Conference as essentially consisting of three tiers. The first tier is Cleveland, the second is Toronto, Boston, and Washington (in that order), and the other four playoff teams fill out the third. Out of these teams, the Raptors interest me the most just from a competitive perspective. If they’re completely healthy once the playoffs start (which is admittedly not a given) they are by far the team most likely to challenge Cleveland. Kyle Lowry was having the best season of his career, and the additions Toronto made at the trade deadline have made the entire team much better. The Cavs should still be favored, but I think the Raptors have the best chance out of these teams.
As far as total outlook goes, the Cavaliers are by far the most likely team to make the Finals, and probably the only team in the conference who has a prayer against Golden State (or San Antonio, but more on these two later). It’s possible, though not likely that someone in the Boston/Toronto/Washington tier could beat Cleveland, especially with the Cavs’ recent struggles. Any time the defending champions lose to the Hawks’ third-string players, that’s a red flag. But I don’t think any team other than Cleveland has a reliable chance to win the finals, and any team with LeBron James on it is always the odds-on favorite to win the conference. So for Cleveland, I’d say the best-case scenario is a championship. For the next tier in the conference, the best case scenario is beating Cleveland. Beyond that, it gets a little murkier.
William: As much as the die-hard Hawks fan in me wants to believe that The Cavs game earlier this week is a sign that ATL and other lower seeded teams can contend, I know that was a fluke. In all reality, I think Cleveland is the only team in The East with a real shot at A) making The Finals and B) beating any team from The West in the finals. It’s a frustrating outlook, and I for one and am not thrilled at the prospect of watching Cleveland-GS again — I’d rather see some fresh faces.
That being said, I like the way you broke down The East into 3 tiers… And I’d agree with your layout of those tiers with two very small changes.
First, I think I’d put Milwaukee in a tier by themselves — after Washington, Boston and Toronto, but before the remaining two teams. If Giannis can get going, I think The Bucks have a shot to contend with Toronto (who they’re currently slated to play) if Lowry isn’t 100%. I would also be ecstatic to watch Giannis-LeBron in Round Two, unlikely as it may be. Giannis is one of the few players in the east, or maybe even the league who matches up with LeBron in terms of athleticism, size, and explosiveness. Basically, I’m moving The Bucks up purely on the basis of Giannis’ Star-Power, which is lacking on the Pacers, Bulls and Hawks. Paul George and Jimmy Butler are both probably better scorers than Giannis, but the fact that they play on teams that really seem to suffocate their talent in a variety of ways, I’ll take The Bucks/Giannis over Indiana and Chicago.
Second, I think I might move Washington to the front of that second tier (purely on the basis of how the seedings will probably end up and on Lowry’s injury). If Wall and Beal can get going, I think they have a shot to make it to the ECFs. For the record, I haven’t watched enough of The Raptors this season, and Toronto is certainly more well rounded, but it’s hard to see Lowry matching Wall’s energy through 4 quarters throughout an entire series knowing that he’s still probably not 100% recovered from his injury. Of course, it’s also more likely that Washington will play Boston (goosebumps for the IT-JW drama that would ensue), and I think Washington can win that series as well if Beal shows up. In my opinion, Washington presents the most intrigue of any team outside of Cleveland. Any series they play in will be fascinating.
When you really break it down, The East is only interesting up to a certain point. I agree with you that the best case scenario for any team outside of Cleveland is to beat Cleveland. No team in The East can beat any of the top-four seeds from The West four times in seven games. However, I’d also point out that I think it’s unrealistic to say that any of the bottom-four seeds can beat Cleveland.
With that being said, what do you think the realistic ceiling is for your bottom tier teams — Indiana, Chicago, ATL and Milwaukee? Can you see any of those teams upsetting any of the higher seeded teams in The East?
Thomas: I think every team near the bottom of the East is capable of winning a playoff series, and possibly two based on who they have to face in the second round. For example, the Hawks and Bucks are worse than the Raptors and Wizards. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Atlanta or Milwaukee could upset a team like Toronto or Washington. The Hawks have had a borderline-elite defense all season, and factors like that can really help in the playoffs. Another factor that can really help is having someone like Giannis. He’s on a trajectory to be a top-five player in the league (he already is by some metrics), and his skill and athleticism could easily be too much for a higher-seeded team to handle. That’s part of what’s unique about the East — even though there are clear tiers, no team is immune from a first-round upset outside of Cleveland.
After that, teams like Atlanta, Indiana, Chicago, and Milwaukee have to hope for a favorable second-round series. Cleveland is a death sentence for anyone in this group, but none of the other four teams at the top are. We’ve seen Hawks/Cavs before, and the Pacers/Bulls/Bucks wouldn’t fare much better against LeBron either. So for me, the ceiling for Cleveland is the a championship, the ceiling for Boston/Toronto/Washington is beating Cleveland, and the ceiling for anyone else in the conference is getting to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Even though the East seems almost predetermined, I think there could be some interesting series. I completely agree with you that Washington/Boston would be a lot of fun. It’s incredibly obvious that players like John Wall and Jae Crowder really don’t like each other, and teams that don’t like each other are always fun to watch. I also think that Toronto/Cleveland would be fun as well, since it would be a shame if the Raptors never get to test their newer roster against the Cavaliers again. Beyond that, I’d obviously like to see the Hawks get as far as they possibly can, and it would be nice if Paul George could win a series or two (I’ve always liked him a lot).
Are there any outcomes you want to see, either from players or teams?
And what do you think the ceiling is for the bottom four?
William: I think the ceiling for the Pacers is winning two games against whoever they end up playing in the first round. I just don’t buy them at all, no matter how good PG-13 is.
For ATL, I think they can give Boston and Washington a run, but I don’t think they match up well with Toronto, and obviously would be crushed by Cleveland, no matter what two outrageous recent games may say. Quite simply, The Hawks don’t have the depth to run with Toronto for 4 games. I would be thrilled if we could somehow get Hawks-Celtics in the second round, though. The Dennis/Isiah dynamic is one of my favorite going on in the NBA right now, and I’d also love to see how Horford would handle the ATL crowd in the playoffs. I’ve always been of the opinion (perhaps unfairly) that Al shrinks in the playoffs, and I’m interested to see if he will elevate his game now that’s he’s in Boston. He and Dwight also don’t seem to like each other very much, and I’d like to see how that would play out over the course of a series.
For the Bulls, they don’t have a shot as long as Cleveland is the #1 seed. I could see Wade and Butler getting hot at home a couple times, but there’s really no chance they win more than one game against Cleveland.
Again, I think The Bucks really do have a shot to make some noise if they have the right matchup in the first round and if Giannis can elevate his game. The Raptors probably have too much depth for Milwaukee, but if they could somehow end up playing Washington, I think Giannis vs. Wall would be a captivating matchup.
As far as things I want to see the most this postseason:
1. Giannis take his game to the next level in a series against LeBron. I really like Giannis, if that wasn’t already clear, and the thought of him vs. LeBron for 4+ games gets me very excited. Earlier this year, he went toe-to-toe with James and had 34 points in a win against the defending champs. If there’s anyone in The East who could physically wear down LeBron, it’s Giannis. The last thing LeBron wants to deal with before an ECF matchup with Toronto would be someone as athletically dominating as Giannis who could potentially derail the rest of the postseason for The Cavs, even if they were to beat The Bucks. Lebron’s biggest enemy at this point is his health and stamina. Giannis throws a real wrench in any plans to slow down or rest before the ECF’s and Finals.
2. Schrøder vs. Wall in Round One. In some ways, I think Wall is the ideal version of Dennis, should he improve. There’s the speed similarities as well as the shooting deficiencies, and it would be fascinating to watch these two go back and forth in a series. They also have attitudes, which are always fun come playoff time.
3. Toronto — Cleveland in the ECFs. This was a fun series last year, and now that Toronto has more depth, a rematch could be even more exciting.
Bonus: It’s unlikely, but Boston-ATL in round two would be a lot of fun for the reasons I mentioned above.
Beyond that, I think most of this could be pretty cut and dry. The different player matchups are what really make things interesting this year.
Follow Thomas Jenkins on Twitter: @TJenkins122
Follow William Heston on Twitter: William_Heston
