The Atlanta Falcons’ Path to Super Bowl LI
As the Falcons prepare for their final two games of the regular season, here is a look at the path they could take in their pursuit of the franchise’s first championship.
The Atlanta Falcons have not clinched a playoff berth yet. Given that fact, and the dubious history of Atlanta franchises in the postseason, it may be too early for any columns that hypothesize about likely playoff opponents and home-field scenarios.
But, according to FiveThirtyEight, Atlanta has a 96% chance of making the playoffs, so it seems appropriate to at least ask the question of which teams they should be expecting to face. The most likely scenario at this point has the Falcons finishing with the third seed, earning a home playoff game during Wild Card Weekend.
If the season ended today, the Falcons would play the Green Bay Packers in Atlanta. We’ve already seen that matchup once this season — Atlanta won—and the rematch would probably be another barnburner of offensive explosiveness. The Packers were mired in a slump during that game, and would probably play at a higher level. The Falcons have improved as well, though, and this game could easily be the most intriguing one of the weekend.
However, the Falcons and Packers probably will not play in the first weekend. Green Bay plays Detroit in week 17, all but guaranteeing that one of those two teams will move in the standings. The loser could fall out of the playoff race entirely, or a Green Bay victory could push the Lions to the sixth spot.
Given that information, it seems more likely that Atlanta will play one of Detroit, Washington, or Tampa Bay if the Falcons can indeed hold on to the third seed. A victory there would bring about a rematch with the Seattle Seahawks, taking the Dirty Birds back out to the West coast. An Atlanta/Seattle divisional round matchup would be fun for a lot of reasons, but Falcons fans would welcome the chance to avenge the dreaded “no-call” for pass interference on the play that capped off a loss there earlier in the year. Seattle would rightly be favored in such a game, but the Falcons would easily have a reasonable chance to pull off an upset.
On the other side of the bracket, Dallas is easily the frontrunner to be in the NFC Championship game (experts are pencilling in a Dallas/Seattle matchup as I type this). While it’s possible that a team like Green Bay or New York could pull off an upset in Jerry World, there’s nothing to suggest that the Cowboys shouldn’t be hosting the penultimate game of the year. I actually think Atlanta matches up slightly better with Dallas, although that could end up being terribly wrong. My reasoning is this, though: both Dallas and Seattle would score on the Falcons defense fairly easily, but Dallas lacks the dreaded defense that the Seahawks deploy for every game. Regardless, the Cowboys would be favored in this game, but not by an overwhelming margin.
In Super Bowl LI, should they reach this threshold, the Falcons would probably face either New England or Oakland (potentially Pittsburgh or Kansas City as well). Facing down Tom Brady in a Super Bowl is the stuff of nightmares, and it should be noted that Atlanta already beat Oakland once this season. From this vantage point, the Falcons would look to have better odds against the Raiders, though, to be fair, there is no such thing as an “easy” Super Bowl.
This is all conjecture, obviously, but it’s fun to think about which teams Atlanta could face in January and (potentially) February. It should also be noted that the Falcons could potentially slide into the second seed if the Seahawks falter. The Seahawks’ schedule is fairly easy, though, with only games against the Cardinals and 49ers remaining. A third place finish seems likely for Atlanta, then, as enticing as home-field advantage through the second round would be.
It’s interesting to think about what the most likely finish for this team is. Dallas and Seattle are better teams right now, but not by much. Atlanta is also so good on offense that it’s hard to say that they have no chance against any team. This is a truth that affects the entire league, but there are no truly “unbeatable” teams right now.
The Falcons can put the finishing touches on a successful season over the next few weeks, and begin looking forward to an exciting postseason. For now at least, this team’s future is bright.
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