Yankees/Astros Might be a Playoff Preview
These two young teams look primed for October
By winning percentage, the three best teams in the American League are the New York Yankees, the Baltimore Orioles, and the Houston Astros. According to Baseball-Reference, New York leads the major leagues in run differential, although Houston and Baltimore are also both in the top 10. If the season ended today, the Astros and Yankees would both win their divisions, and would look primed for a ALCS matchup.
That’s why tonight’s series — a four-game set in New York that pits the Astros against the Yankees—is so important. The Astros were the consensus pick among most baseball minds to win their division, and they’ve proved everyone right so far in this young season. The Yankees are a bit more surprising, but their solid run differential suggests that they are, indeed, one of the better teams in the league. And because both teams are so talented, it’s easy to envision similar games in Yankee Stadium this October.
The paths that these two teams have taken to early-season dominance are interesting. The Yankees have done it primarily offensively, relying on the bats of players like Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, and Aaron Hicks (just like everyone was expecting, Hicks has become an offensive threat). These three players are far from the whole story, too. According to FanGraphs, the Yankees lead the major leagues in offensive WAR at 9.3.
Houston has a much more balanced approach. The same FanGraphs leaderboards have the Astros at eighth in offensive WAR. However, the team hits the same mark when the statistics are flipped to eighth. The Yankees have embraced an offense-first philosophy that relies on blowing opponents out of the water. In contrast, the Astos rely on a closer balance between hitting and pitching.
It shouldn’t be too hard to drum up excitement for this prolonged weekend series, but here’s the quickest way to make the case to watch: both teams are really good in terms of both traditional and advanced metrics. Baseball-Reference’s pythagorean win/loss metric — a statistic that calculates expected outcomes based on run differential—backs this up. The Yankees have hit their expected number exactly at 21–10. Houston has outperformed its own numbers slightly, but only by a couple of games (B/R has their expected number at 21–13, instead of the 23–11 the team currently boasts).
Going forward, the Astros are probably a safer bet to win their division. The Yankees have to contend with teams in Baltimore and Boston that both have the talent to win the AL East, while the West is devoid of serious contenders beyond the struggling Rangers and mediocre Mariners. New York, Baltimore, and Boston may end up as three of the top five teams in the league, and they’re all in the same division. However, the Yankees have a great shot at making the playoffs if they continue to play this well, and all available metrics say that this team’s success is real and sustainable.
October matchups are always hard to predict. Teams change drastically over the summer months, and playoff rosters often look much different from their April counterparts. But if current trends hold, then these two teams may face off again in a few months. And I expect the outcome would be much closer than the 2015 Wild-Card game.
