No Jobs In the Future! Everything will be FREE!

But people often didn't realize it in February 2014.

Possible jobs turbulence, in the near future, is merely an issue of people failing to realize how everything in the future will be free. Every job will be completely automated in the future. The automation in combination with technology becoming ultra-efficient will entail resources becoming essentially limitless, which is why everything will be free, scarcity will be abolished (note Drexler “Radical Abundance” and Diamandis/Kotler “Abundance” for an introduction to these issues).

Technology is improving in many areas, fiction is becoming fact. GRoK CEO, Moshe Kushman said, regarding Star Trek healing devices:

"It’s not just science fiction anymore. All indications are that 21st century life sciences will change dramatically during the next several decades, and GRoK is working to define the forefront of a new scientific wave."

The future means nobody will need to work and everything will be free. The transition to this state is basic income, which is a non-withdrawable welfare payment given without any conditions or obligations whatsoever for the recipient, it's basically free money without any catches. Basic income seems very radical but it is closer than you think. MLK advocated it and there is currently a pending Swiss referendum for the possible implementation of it.

Note how companies are investing in robotics. CNET wrote:

“Dyson introduced a robot vacuum prototype in the early 2000s, but its founder, James Dyson, wasn't satisfied with the result and the bot never made it to production. We haven't heard much robotics talk from the company since then, but the recent announcement that Dyson plans to invest $8 million in a robotics lab confirms the company sees all kinds of potential in domestic helper hardware.”

IBM expects their AI Watson to help improve life in Africa, the BBC reported:

“Uyi Stewart, chief scientist of IBM Research in Africa, told the BBC that the system could transform education and health in the same way as mobile banking had transformed finance on the continent.”

14th February 2014. The Atlantic wrote about how progress so far is merely a warm-up act:

“The advances we’ve seen in the past few years—cars that drive themselves, useful humanoid robots, speech recognition and synthesis systems, 3D printers, Jeopardy!-champion computers—are not the crowning achievements of the computer era. They’re the warm-up acts. As we move deeper into the second machine age we’ll see more and more such wonders, and they’ll become more and more impressive.”

On the issue of automation, you may ask if there is any evidence of this. Where is Wall-E?

We already have the Roomba and Nao is being tentatively used to help elderly people and autistic children. In late 2013 Google bought Boston Dynamics, which gave Google a variety of notable robots. Google is also investing heavily in artificial intelligence, note the early 2014 DeepMind acquisition or the input of Ray Kurzweil. Intel is in the process of launching a competitor to Siri, called Jarvis, and then there’s the classic IBM Watson who won Jeopardy! IBM have opened up Watson to app developers. So regarding all the automaton, AI and robotics, the question is have we reached the limit of progress or have we hardly scratched the surface, is this the beginning or the end?

On 2nd January 2104, Washington Post published “How the United States is reinventing itself yet again” (see Tweet above). The Post stated:

“Computer-assisted design and fabrication will reshape manufacturing forever. These technologies will slash waste and replace nearly all conventional manufacturing with more environmentally friendly and cost-effective additive manufacturing run with robots and computer programs. Complex systems resistant to modeling will succumb to advances in big data that allow mankind to finally make sense and improve upon the most intricate multi-faceted interactions. Where big data fails, ubiquitous crowd sourcing will harness untapped brain cycles to train systems and solve problems, one small activity at a time — on a global scale.”

I discovered this debate via Tim O’Reilly.

Is AGI essential for utopian future?

Could extremely sophisticated technology be created without AGI? What if Moore’s Law hits a stumbling block, an impenetrable barrier? I think in the worst case scenario, if technology remained at the 2014 level of sophistication, 30 years (circa 2045) would be sufficient time for mere human inventiveness to produce a utopian civilization.

Technological progress was a lot slower, a lot more inefficient in 1983. From 1983-2014, without a 2014-level of proficiency, we have seen a lot of progress. Mobile phones initially cost in approximately $3,700 yet in early 2014 you can buy a much smaller and vastly more efficient phone for only $6 (initially I thought the lowest price was $8)! Hard drives and desktops have experienced similar progress.

Technology in 2014 is a lot more sophisticated than 1983, thus if we assumed zero acceleration for technological proficiency, the mere refinement of our current tools, mere augmentation, then consolidation of knowledge, would be sufficient for utopia to occur by 2045.

Already in year 2014 we have the asteroid mining ventures Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries at an embryonic stage. Undoubtedly these ventures, or other similar ventures, will progress over the next 30 years, based on a 2014 level of technology alone. Similarly 3D-printing and nanotechnology will develop merely via refining 2014 knowledge, thus in the year 2045 it is perfectly reasonable to expect the printing of personal spaceships by average people. Similar to how mobile phones were only available to the elite, at a high price of $3,700 in 1984, whereas in 2014 powerful phones are cheap and available to almost anyone, I think it is very logical to expect similar refinements in 3D-printing, nanotech, and computing.

In the year 2045 people will have easy access to the limitless resources in Space. People will print their own personal spaceships, computers, and mining robots, whereupon they will be free to explore the universe without any worries about money or jobs.

Stupidity or ignorance could entail turbulent transition.

The ignorance of politicians is very problematic, but abundance and no jobs is inevitable, eventually. The question is can we avoid the turbulence regarding political ignorance? Can we achieve a smooth or turbulent transition into a free future?

Political ignorance can be overcome via public awareness. Automation will reach a point where it is clear all jobs are being eroded, hopefully via insight (intelligent forward-planning), we can implement basic income before a disastrous situation occurs.

The economic reality of the future is clear, it's a free future, but economists, similar to politicians, may not realise it. Resources will become more abundant via technology thus the only opposition to our free future is mere ignorance, blind loyalty to tradition.

Some debate

Some Tweets regarding myself, Ari Gesher, and Jim Stogdill.

Invalid Pessimism