100x to 1000x Moonshot Dream (Part 1)
There’s a saying that goes “the next cycle’s 100x projects are ones you haven’t heard of.”
While this is a reasonable statement, it’s also reasonable that there are a few unique projects built during the last cycle and the bear market that are yet to see 100x to 1000x.
With this in mind, I’ll always advocate for proper risk management. Allocating one’s life savings to a moon-shot project is most likely a one-way ticket to rektville.
Yes, there are stories of people who’ve parked their savings in a memecoin and made 1000x returns.
But for every one of those stories, there are probably 1000 more stories of pain and misery.
So take any project I shill with caution; I’m not paid to shill, I’ve merely taken a liking to it and reached a risk/reward valuation in my head.
Also, this is not financial advice.
Notwithstanding, if one parks $100 in a project that does a 100x, that’s a cool $10,000. If it does a 1000x, even better, that’s an insane $100,000.
These moon-shot projects are hard to come by and require a great deal of luck. It’s also harder to abstain from taking profit at 5x or even 10x depending on your personality.
The best moon-shot projects are those you allocate a minuscule amount of capital and then forget.
As an example, I allocated £500 to Matic/Polygon when it was around £0.02. That’s 25,000 Matic tokens. I took profit at 2x, thinking I was a savvy investor.
Imagine riding that number to £2.00? That would’ve been a cool £50,000 from a £500 investment. But would I have had the fortitude to hold till then? Probably not, I didn’t.
Because of the above experience, I make educated guesses about take-profit levels, then I halve that figure, and that’s my new level.
It doesn’t matter if the project keeps running; taking profits early is better than not taking profits and riding to zero.
I also try as much as possible to get my initial investment out; it surprisingly gives one the conviction to hold the coins to new ATH or to zero without worry. But always remember to take profit though.
So, what projects am I looking at with potential a 100x to 1000x? At the moment, I have two of them. But I won’t be allocating more than £500 to each; I’ll assume that this is money lost until I take profit or recover my initial capital.
Given the significant run-up of STEPN, bridging the gap between the real world and crypto/virtual, we’ve seen the potential for similar applications.
At this point, tokenomics and ponzinomics don’t really matter too much, the market will figure it out.
What we’ve seen is ‘retails’ appetite to participate in rewarding incentive schemes leveraging apps that obfuscate the underlying blockchain layer.
If an app rewards users in dopamine hits, and is simple enough, then it doesn’t really matter if it interacts with a blockchain protocol.
As long as it’s easy to use, users get rewards, and there’s a user-friendly fiat-to-crypto on-ramp, the users will come.
Additionally, given the prominence of GameFi in the last cycle, projects leveraging this narrative in combination with real world bridging to ‘retail’ users have a huge opportunity.
I think Phantasia can be one such app.
Phantasia, and its FANT token, aims to bring the vision of Web3 to the $20 billion fantasy sports market.
Phantasia is a blockchain-powered peer-to-peer fantasy sports platform. The platform comes as an iOS or Android app running on the Solana blockchain behind the scenes.
Users can easily sign up with their phone numbers, email or an existing Solana wallet, play against their peers, find a contest covering their favourite sports, choose players, track live games, launch paid contests and earn prizes.
Contests cover Major League Baseball, NBA, NFL, EPL and DFS.
To evaluate Phantasia’s potential, one must compare the project to DraftKings, a popular fantasy sports and sports betting company.
DraftKings had about 883,000 monthly unique users in September 2021. It’s annual revenue grew from $3 million in 2013 to $1.3 billion in 2021 (I reckon this is probably due to advances in mobile app delivery and mobile technology).
If Phantasia captures only 1% of DraftKings’ monthly unique user count, that would be equivalent to 8,830 monthly unique users.
Capturing a similar revenue percentage would be equivalent to about $12 million per annum.
Unlike DraftKings, Phantasia aspires towards complete decentralisation, and it seeks to do this by offering the FANT token as an incentive.
Phantasia is also leveraging the NFT hype by offering users the ability to customise their player cards, or in-game identities, with NFTs from their marketplace.
Let’s be honest, many projects within the blockchain space do not need tokens. Tokens help the development team fund the project because of retail speculation. Notwithstanding, it’s a straightforward means of decentralisation via incentivising participation.
The development team have sought to make the token a utility and governance token, earned via participation in contests and for purchasing NFTS.
The the crypto bear market and the VC vesting schedule has completely decimated the FANT token price. The price has fallen almost 90% and the historical price chart is similar to the dreaded Solana ecosystem ‘down only’ pattern. RIP to those who bought the top.
If the project survives the bear market, the team delivers on their vision, and the iOS and Android apps gain traction, Phantasia could pull a similar move to STEPN.
Proceed with caution though; don’t remortgage the house, dip into savings or bet the family farm. It could all go to zero. If it happened to Luna, it can happen to any project.
Hence, I wouldn’t allocate more than £250 to the tokens. This is not financial advice, I’m merely discussing my personal plans.
At the time of writing, FANT’s maximum supply is 250 million and its current circulating supply is almost 72 million. The current fully diluted valuation is about $6 million. So, if the project ever pulls a STEPN or an Axie Infinity, we could see a 100x to a 1000x. But I reckon one would probably have to forget they owned the token, only to one day find out that each FANT token costs about $2 or $20. One can only dream.
Take note of VC vesting schedules and the price they paid in the token private sale; you don’t want to be exit liquidity.
This is my take, proceed with caution. If it works, it could be a moonshot.
Disclaimer: This information presented in this article is not financial advice. What you choose to do with the information is solely your responsibility. Cryptocurrencies are unregulated and highly volatile assets, and a greater-than 100% capital loss is very probable.
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