A horse travels thousands of miles without washing the dust | WTR 09.11

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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji ; Elk Will Not Get Lost @crypto_elk_ ; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone ;

This Week in Review

This week from September 4 to September 11, the highest sugar orange near 26445 dollars, the lowest close to 25372 dollars, the shock rate reached about 4.23%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 25397, and there will be some support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000–31000 about 3.71 million pieces;
2. 20,000 to 25,000 about 2.12 million pieces;

• In the short term, the probability of falling below 20,000 to 22,000 is 89%;
• Among them, the probability that it will not break 28000~ 30000 in the short term is 63%.

Important news

Economic news

1. In August, the annual rate of CP1 is expected to be 3.6%, the previous value is 3.2%, the monthly rate is expected to be 0.5%, and the previous value is 0.2%.
2. August core CPl expected value of 4.3%, the former value of 4.7%.
3. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week 216,000, 234,000 lower than the expected value and 228,000 lower than the previous value.
4. Williams, a member of the Fed, said: The Fed needs to adjust policy “cautiously” and must do so gradually, and the question is whether Monetary Policy needs to become restrictive.
5. Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will stay put in September and will increase the obstacles to resuming interest rate hikes.
6. The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, saying: From July to August, the US economic growth was moderate, employment growth was suppressed, and the overall rate of price increase slowed down, but consumption remained strong.
7. The pressure on the account has eased. The Federal Reserve’s core personal consumption expenditures index rose by 0.2% in July for the second consecutive month, down from more than 0.3% earlier this year.
8. Fed members are now moving more cautiously, with many suggesting they may choose to pause rate hikes at this month’s meeting.
9. The Fed’s Beige Book was more dovish, with the fewest mentions of “contacting” since January 2022 and the highest mention of “recession” since 2018, a sign that policymakers are transitioning toward the end of this round of policy tightening.
10. UBS said: The corporate earnings recession is over, and the S & P 500 will rise to 4,700 in June next year.
11. Goldman Sachs believes the S & P 500 index is on track to reach 4,700 by the end of the year.

Encrypted ecological message aspect

1. Visa Expands $USDC Billing Feature to Solana
2. Singapore credit card issuer DCS Center launches payment token DUS
3. Native $USDC Launches Layer2 Network OP Mainnet and Base
4. Grayscale Urges SEC to Approve Conversion of GBTC to Spot Bitcoin ETF
5. MetaMask allows users to convert Cryptocurrency to fiat currency
6. Ark Invest and 21Shares Apply to Launch First Spot Ethereum ETF
7. ConsenSys will launch a decentralized version of Infura this year.
8. Binance NFT to Discontinue The Sandbox NFT Staking Program and No Longer Support Polygon Network on September 26
9. Coinbase executives have sold more than $30 million worth of company stock since the US Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) filed a lawsuit against the cryptocurrency exchange on June 6.
10. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong sold $21.17 million worth of COIN stock.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the likelihood of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• High quality throwing pressure
• Global place of purchase status

(Below, high quality selling pressure)

The high-quality selling pressure in the current period is continuing to decline and has reached a situation close to the low range.

The intensity of selling pressure in the market has dropped significantly from a few months ago.

(Figure below, the state of global purchasing power)

Global purchasing power is diminishing.

In the past four years, I have experienced three situations:

One is on the eve of March 12, 2020;

One is by the end of 2022.

One is now.

Most dates have gone through a long period of malaise.

The current overall situation is selling pressure in reducing purchasing power, but also in the reduction, the two sides need to reach a critical point, even to squeeze the situation.

Interim exploration

• Online emotional positivity
• Accumulation coefficient of giant whale
• Short-term profit percentage compound model

(Below, online emotional positivity)

The market gradually came out of a state of poor stage.

Liquidity is gradually slowing down, and the market may be in a state of repair.

There may be a weak repair trend for good overall.

(Figure below, the accumulation coefficient of the giant whale)

Judging from the situation of the giant whale, the whole is still accumulating a little bit.

Perhaps they fell into a wait-and-see mood and did not choose to actively participate in the current market.

In the current situation, the observation of such large groups still needs to be closely followed up.

At the same time, standing in the stock market point of view, may participate in the enthusiasm of the decline will lead to price volatility is too biased.

(Figure below, short-term profit percentage composite model)

From the perspective of the loss of short-term participants, the market lacks new forces.

At the same time, it also means that the liquidity in the market is still reduced, which may weaken the magnitude of price changes.

The accumulation group is still in the state of hovering and increasing, and it may switch back and forth in the tone of wait-and-see and repair.

Short-term observations

• Risk coefficient of derivatives
• Option intention-to-trade ratio
• Derivatives volume
• Implied volatility of options
• Profit-loss transfer
• Add addresses and active addresses
• Rock Sugar Orange Exchange Net Position
• Net Position on Shutai Exchange
• High weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Net Position on Stablecoin Exchange
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the safe zone with moderate risk

(Below, the risk factor of derivatives)

At present, the risk of derivatives is moderate, and the risk coefficient has risen from the neutral area to the safe area. This week, focus on the upward or downward state of the risk coefficient.

(Figure below, option intention transaction ratio)

Option turnover has increased significantly, and the proportion of put options has increased slightly compared with last week and is at a moderate level.

(Figure below, derivative trading volume)

Derivatives trading volume without too much volatility is still at a low level, derivatives traders hold more wait-and-see state.

(Figure below, implied volatility of options)

Options implied volatility has increased and options traders active levels have increased.

Emotional state rating: Neutral on the cold side

(Figure below, profit and loss transfer amount)

The change in the amount of loss transfer did not change much compared with last week, and the amount of loss transfer was still in a downward state after a slight increase. Positive emotions and panic are not there.

(Figure below, add address and active address)

New and active addresses on the chain are currently at a high level. Indicates that the active level on the chain is good. In addition, extending the timeline to observe the sudden increase of new active addresses on the past chain may indicate that a certain amount of fluctuations is coming.

Spot and selling structure rating: overall showing a small amount of inflow state, selling pressure is low.

(Below, the rock sugar orange exchange net position)

The pie has a medium inflow, and the current inflow has been digested.

(Net Position of E-Pacific Exchange in the figure below)

E is too much like normal, and the outflow accumulates.

(Below, high weight selling pressure)

There is currently no high weight selling pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is lost.

(Figure below, state of global purchasing power)

As was the case last week, global purchasing power has gone into negative territory.

(Below, the net position of the USDC exchange)

A small outflow of net positions on the USDC exchange.

(The following figure shows the net position of the USDT exchange)

USDT exchange net position inflows accumulated.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 25,000; there is a willingness to sell at 30,000.

(Data off the Coinbase chain in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 23500, 24500, 25000;

(Data off the Binance chain in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 23000, 24000, 24500, 25000;

There is a willingness to sell near 30000, 31000.

(Data off the Bitfinex chain in the figure below)

Willing to buy at a price around 24200;

This week’s summary:

News surface summary:

1. Judging from the recent Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve, the overall situation is more moderate. This shows that policymakers are shifting the direction of policy towards ending the tightening cycle.
2. Recently, many institutions such as UBS and Goldman Sachs have begun to change their views on the recession, believing that the corporate recession may be nearing the end and a new cycle may usher in the future.

At present, the current pace of Monetary Policy is shifting from tightening to easing buffer phase.

Similarly, many members of the Federal Reserve have also released wind from multiple angles to express caution.

There is no good reason to look for a bear market in a monetary easing cycle, unless the asset itself has no value.

The future will slowly shift to an easing cycle as time passes.

In the short term:

Pay attention to the financial transactions before the end of the year.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. High-quality selling pressure is continuing to decline and is close to the low range;
2. But at the same time, global purchasing power continues to decline;

• Market setting:

Market selling pressure and purchasing power are declining, the next period of time may be sluggish state, need to wait for some opportunity to break the critical point.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

1. The liquidity in the field is gradually decreasing.
2. The accumulation of giant whales is weak, and they are currently on the sidelines;
3. The new capital is reduced, and the accumulation group is still hovering.

• Market setting:

Repair, wait and see

The market is coming out of a state of poor stage, but the overall wait-and-see atmosphere is heavy, and there are fewer new funds.

In this state, it is suitable for slow rhythm and should not be aggressive.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1. The risk factor is in the safe area and the risk is moderate.
2. The newly added active addresses are at a high level, and the active level on the chain is good.
3. Market Sentiment Status Rating: Neutral on the cold side.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a small inflow state, and the selling pressure is low.
5. Global purchasing power is lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is lost.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that the 25,000 price has the intention to buy; the 30,000 price has the intention to sell.
7. In the short term, the probability of falling below 20,000 to 22,000 is 89%; The probability that it will not break 28000~ 30000 in the short term is 63%.

• Market setting:

Maintain last week’s view in the short term. More inclined to be affected by the news or derivative market, and continue to pay attention to unrealized losses.

Strategy recommendations: Spot dynamic hedging

Risk warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please view and prevent market Black Swan risks with caution.

This report is provided by the “WTR” Institute.

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