Are We Still In A Bull Run ??
This article will cover 10 different indicators which were proven to be correct calling out most of the previous Bull Run peaks.
We shall also compare the data from past vs present , which can further help us deep dive.
- Google Search for BITCOIN
- Stock to Flow Chart
- The golden 51% - 49 % Ratio
- 2-Year moving average
- Bitcoin Trolololo trend line
- RUPL / NUPL chart
- Puell Multiple
- MVRV — Z Score
- RHODL Ratio
- Reserve Risk
1. Google Search for BITCOIN
Historically speaking , at the time of Blow of top the term ‘Bitcoin’ has been searched ridiculously high by internet users and always grown exponentially when compared against the previous bull run blow off top.
Current cycle didn’t witness anything close to that , in-fact the ‘Bitcoin’ term search hits didn’t exceed the previous bull run’s top.
2. Stock to Flow Chart
Stock to flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
The original BTC S2F model is a formula based on monthly S2F and price data.
Formula : SF = stock / flow
Red Arrows = Blow of Peaks of previous bull runs
Green Arrow = Sub peak
White Box Hovered = Where we are hovering now
Case 1: Can we consider the current 64,804 as a peak for this bull run ?
Looking at the STF chart , this is way off from being a bull run top
- It’s not a blow off top rather a flat top ( top followed by consolidation ) unlike any other runs which we have witnessed
- The flow is not off the chart like previous bull runs. Way below than the 463 days Stock/flow line
Therefore , I assume that the current ATH (64,804) which we hit on April 14 2021 is not a top for this bull run.
Case 2: Can this be a Sub Peak?
The subpeak which we have witnessed during 2013 cycle has a significant upside from the 463 days S/F. Super parabolic , I don’t see any of such significant or decently close sub peak yet during this run. Rather I believe this could be potential cool off / consolidation phase. I could be wrong though , but going by the chart and the similarities of the historical bull runs made me hold on to the thought that it might not be a Sub Peak.
If the current cycle is in harmony with STF , the likely target which Bitcoin might hit is potential $100,000 to $250,000 represented by * and Line in Pink
3. The golden 51% — 49 % Ratio
The focus of this study is the Bull Cycle. The phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically we can claim that the Halving seems to be the middle of each Bull Cycle.
Bear market low to Halving is considered to be 51 %
Halving to the Bull Run Top is considered to be 49 %
Source : Click Here
In 2013, post halving the run was intense. Hyper parabolic. Followed buy a mini bear market and then a final top
In 2017, the rest 49% shows the spread of the run and parabolic in nature with 4 to 5 major corrections. Notice the pattern on 2018, 3rd correct .. A drop and a consolidation, which dropped even further only to sky rocket.
Besides these , we still have few more months left which can be noticed on 2021’s 49 % left over region.
Considering these observations , the Bull run is still on.
4. 2-Year moving average
The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
One of the best metrics.
This KPI was spot on calling out tops and bottoms. It has marked the SUB PEAK of 2013 and PEAK of that bull run to the accuracy.
Marked 2018 bull run top to the point
Current run didn’t show case any signs of Sub Peak or a Peak if this particular KPI is considered.
One critical observation is that the green trend line is pretty close to the price movement all through unlike 2013 and 2017. If the price goes upside , there is a good chance that it might go parabolic.
5. Bitcoin Trolololo trend line
The Rainbow Chart is meant to be be a fun way of looking at long term price movements, disregarding the daily volatility “noise”. The color bands follow a logarithmic regression.
Predicted : 10000 $ / BTC to be hit on 22–11–2017
Happened on : 27–11–2017
Predicting : 100000$ / BTC to be hit on 16 July 2021
This is yet to be verified , yet to happen.
The KPI suggests when to sell and accumulate bitcoin. Those sell points could be the tops of that run. Noticed the same for 2013 and 2017 run.
The current progression of the price movement does not suggest it hit the top yet.
Ethereum Rainbow Chart for a Quick Check
6. RUPL / NUPL chart
The key principle of this tool is in the ratio between market cap and Bitcoin investors taking profit.
When market cap rises much faster than profit taking we see that the market is overheating, one could say due to investor greed (red band). For the strategic investor such times have historically been favorable to take profit.
We did hit greed , but not the Euphoria. By this KPI , we can say that Bitcoin didn’t hit its peak yet for this cycle.
7. Puell Multiple
This metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin’s economy — bitcoin miners and their revenue.
It explores market cycles from a mining revenue perspective. Bitcoin miners are sometimes referred to as compulsory sellers due to their need to cover fixed costs of mining hardware in a market where price is extremely volatile. The revenue they generate can therefore influence price over time.
The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.
The indicator is way far away from the upper bound. Going by this chart , we did not hit the peak yet.
8. MVRV — Z Score
MVRV Z-Score uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its ‘fair value’.
In 2013, 2018 the KPI hit the upper bound with precision.
When we look at the Z score line progression , it looks like a dip similar to the 2013’s , however , in 2013 it was a Sub Peak , it hit the upper bound with ease , the current progression of Z score doesn’t imply it to be sub peak or a top for this run.
Bluntly put , we didn’t hit the top yet.
9. RHODL Ratio
The indicator is able to identify with great accuracy the price high of each of Bitcoin’s previous macro cycles.
It identifies the market top to within a few days accuracy.
RHODL ratio entering into the red band signals that the market is approaching the top of its cycle. This has historically been a good time for investors to take profits in each cycle.
Please note that this metric doesn’t give a false signal of a cycle high in April 2013
Looking at the KPI , we are way far below the upper bound level.
10. Reserve Risk
Reserve Risk allows us to visualise the confidence amongst long term bitcoin holders relative to the price of Bitcoin at a given moment in time.
When confidence is high and price is low then there is an attractive risk/reward to invest in Bitcoin at that time (green zone). When confidence is low and price is high then risk/reward is unattractive (red zone). Investing in Bitcoin during periods where Reserve Risk is in the green zone has produced outsized returns over time.
We are not in the reserve risk zone to call it a top.
The more they say it is different , the more things stay the same. We haven’t seen the current bull run’s top yet. I doubt if we have had witnessed the sub peak by considering the reliable KPIs we have.
Author : Eth!c@l Aka Kumar
Email : IfWorldGoneCrypto@gmail.com
Telegram : t.me/IfWorldGoneCrypto
Peer Reviewed : Stinky Linky
PS: This is neither a Paid Article nor Financial Advice. What has been documented are the findings from my own research out of passion in this space which is Crypto
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