Atrium Light Moon, White Dew Washing Empty | WTR 9.04

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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji ; Elk Will Not Get Lost @crypto_elk_ ; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone ;

This Week in Review

This week from August 28th to September 4th, the highest sugar orange near 28142 dollars, the lowest close to 25805 dollars, the shock rate reached about 9.98%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 25379, and there will be some support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000–31000 about 3.87 million pieces;
2. 20,000 to 25,000 about 1.95 million pieces;

• In the short term, the probability of falling below 20,000 to 22,000 is 89%;
• Among them, the probability that it will not break 28000~ 30000 in the short term is 63%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The US unemployment rate in August was 3.8%, higher than the expected value of 3.50% and higher than the previous value of 3.50%.
2. US August seasonally adjusted non-farm employment 187,000 people, higher than expected 170,000 people, flat before the value of 187,000 people.
3. Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Bernstein, said: This is a market-friendly report, with the labor market easing and economic growth remaining fairly healthy, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see.
4. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September has risen to 93%, and the swap market fully reflects the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points from June to May next year.
5. Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments: The market is starting to think about interest rate cuts and when they might come, which is the next focus of the stock market’s rise.

Encrypted ecological message aspect

1. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed seven BTC ETF filings until October 16–19.
2. The New York Stock Exchange filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to allow Hashdex to convert its existing NYSE-listed $3 million BTC futures ETF into a Hashdex spot ETF.
3. ZA Bank has announced that it has become the first settlement bank of Hashkey Exchange, a Hong Kong-licensed virtual asset retail platform, to start providing fiat currency withdrawal and deposit services for investors holding ZA Bank accounts.
4. JPMorgan Chase Bank, filed a trademark application “CHASETRAVEL”, plans to conduct proposed monetary and financial transactions, travel intermediary services, etc.
5. Chen Pei-quan, executive director of Victory Securities, said that the Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to announce guidelines on brokers’ opening up retail investors to trade in virtual assets in the near future. According to the progress, Victory Securities may open retail investors to trade in proposed assets in the fourth quarter.
6. “X” original Twitter obtained the required permission to add Cryptocurrency payments.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the likelihood of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• High quality throwing pressure
• Add and sell on-chain chips
• Distribution of each price chip and volume address distribution
• Derivatives New Feature Project

(Below, high quality selling pressure)

The overall higher quality selling pressure has slowly declined in the past month.

Leaving a certain amount of redundancy and space for the turning point of the market.

(Below, the added and sold chips on the chain)

The number of chips added to the chain has shown an overall increase in the last two months.

Market participants slowly increase their chips over time.

(Figure below, the distribution of each price chip and the volume address distribution)

The proportion of participants actively trading during this time period has dropped significantly.

More short-term players, the flow of chips on the chain has dropped by more than 70%.

It is worth noting that at the price of 48,000 to 50,000 US dollars, there are giant whales hoarding a large number of chips in this range, which may be partially cashed out when they hit this price again.

(Figure below, Derivatives New Feature Project )

• Lake Blue: Lido
• Golden Orange: Bad

This is a new feature from the latest experiments and research, or a signal for feature engineering based on derivatives.

It can be used in quantitative trading, mid-term trading, and has a powerful effect.

Here are the simple backtest results:

Adopt a shorter position strategy, generally holding about 1–3 hours.

Spot, no leverage , in the current big shock and bear market , only do more than 72% return;

Maximum drawdown: 7%.

Interim exploration

• Exchange fund flow
• Purchasing power differential
• Exchange net position

(Figure below, exchange fund flow)

• Red line: The proportion of on-chain transfers in the exchange’s capital flow
• Orange area: On-chain transfer volume
• Blue area: exchange fund flow

This model is used to test the capital flow status of the exchange. When the capital flow of the exchange is more active, it may represent a relatively good situation in the circulation status of the exchange.

If you cut from this angle, BTC itself has a good flow of funds, and there are corresponding buyers and sellers to exchange on the exchange.

(Figure below, purchasing power difference)

However, from the perspective of purchasing power difference, there are slight traces of repair at present, but the overall change is small.

At the same time, stablecoins as a whole have not shown an increasing state and may be relatively biased towards stock.

Combined with “exchange capital flow”, the stock in the market is still relatively active and is still biased towards repair.

To take a closer look, add data on the net position of the exchange.

(Below, the net position of the exchange)

Exchange net position is the relative relationship between deposits and withdrawals over a certain period of time, as well as some predictable buyer and seller relationships.

The current net position of the exchange is biased towards a state of weak outflow, but the overall position has not changed from “green” to red.

Perhaps from the perspective of market state switching, the seller rhythm is in the unwinding stage.

Short-term observations

• Risk coefficient of derivatives
• Option intention-to-trade ratio
• Derivatives volume
• Implied volatility of options
• Profit-loss transfer
• Add addresses and active addresses
• Rock Sugar Orange Exchange Net Position
• Net Position on Shutai Exchange
• High weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Net Position on Stablecoin Exchange
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: risk factor is in neutral region, moderate risk

(Below, the risk factor of derivatives)

Last week, it was mentioned that the downward risk coefficient could not drive the price increase. This week, the risk coefficient fell to the neutral area, and the derivative risk was moderate, so there was no special expectation of the price impact.

(Figure below, option intention transaction ratio)

Options trading volume has increased significantly, and the proportion of put options has not changed much compared with last week and is at a moderate level.

(Figure below, derivative trading volume)

After a brief rise in prices, derivatives trading volumes quickly fell back to low levels, indicating that derivatives traders are still in a wait-and-see state.

(Figure below, implied volatility of options)

Options implied volatility has increased and options traders active levels have increased.

Emotional state rating: Neutral on the cold side

(Figure below, profit and loss transfer amount)

The change in the amount of loss transfer did not change much compared with the previous week, only the amount of loss transfer decreased slightly. Positive emotions and panic emotions are absent.

(Figure below, add address and active address)

The new and active addresses on the chain are currently at a medium to high level. Indicates that the active level on the chain is good.

Spot and selling structure rating: overall showing a small amount of inflow state, selling pressure is low.

(Below, the rock sugar orange exchange net position)

The pie has a medium inflow, and the current inflow has been digested.

(Net Position of E-Pacific Exchange in the figure below)

E is too much like normal, and the outflow accumulates.

(Below, high weight selling pressure)

There is currently no high weight selling pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has been lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.

(Figure below, state of global purchasing power)

As was the case last week, global purchasing power has gone into negative territory.

(Below, the net position of the USDC exchange)

A small outflow of net positions on the USDC exchange.

(The following figure shows the net position of the USDT exchange)

USDT exchange net position inflows accumulated.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 25,000; there is a willingness to sell at 30,000.

(Data off the Coinbase chain in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 23000, 24000, 24500, 25000;

There is a desire to sell near 30500, 31000, 32000.

(Data off the Binance chain in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at a price near 24000 and 25000;

There is a willingness to sell near 30000, 31000.

(Data off the Bitfinex chain in the figure below)

Willing to buy at prices around 22000, 23000, 24500;

There is a willingness to sell near 30500 and 32000.

This week’s summary:

News surface summary:

1. The Fed expects to end the interest rate hike cycle at the latest two CPI times. After the interest rate hike cycle ends, US Treasury yields will fall.
2. Money will flow back into risky assets, thereby contributing to the rise of risky assets.

In terms of encryption:

On the one hand, the court denied the SEC ‘s reasons for refusing the canary release of spot goods, and on the other hand, top asset management institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity and Castle Investment joined the top Hedge Fund .

The SEC has fewer and fewer options.

It will become a high probability that it will pass later.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. High quality selling pressure is slowly decreasing;
2. In the past two months, the new chips on the chain have been silently increasing;
3. The liquidity of the chip structure on the chain has dropped by 70%. It is worth noting that at the price of 48,000 to 50,000 US dollars, giant whales have accumulated a large number of chips in this range, which may cause pressure in the later stage;
4. At present, the main active funds on the chain are short-term funds;
5. New Features and Signal Effect Backtesting: The retracement profit ratio is 10, and the effect is better.

• Market setting:

Maintaining a low liquidity view, the market structure has not changed much, and may have to take a slower turn and plateau through.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

1. BTC has a better trading situation on the exchange
2. There is a slight repair of purchasing power, but the overall stock is biased
3. Net Position shows the key point at which the seller-buyer state transitions

• Market setting:

There are enough buyers and sellers in the market. From this point of view, the liquidity is acceptable, but the overall situation is still a stock environment. In the medium term, domestic needs should pay attention to narrative and trend changes.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1. The risk factor is in the neutral region and the risk is moderate.
2. The newly added active addresses are at a medium to high level, and the active level on the chain is good.
3. Market Sentiment Status Rating: Neutral on the cold side.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a small inflow state, and the selling pressure is low.
5. Global purchasing power has been lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.
6. The off-chain transaction data shows that the 25,000 price has the willingness to buy; the 30,000 price has the willingness to sell.
7. The probability of falling below 20,000 to 22,000 in the short term is 89%; the probability of rising below 28,000 to 30,000 in the short term is 63%.

• Market setting:

The overall market sentiment is neutral and cold. Short-term prices are more likely to be influenced by news or derivatives markets. In addition, the current price is still below the cost of short-term holders, and continue to focus on unrealized losses.

Strategy recommendations: Spot dynamic hedging

Risk warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please view and prevent market Black Swan risks with caution.

This report is provided by the “WTR” Institute.

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