Bitcoin Bulls Take Control of the ball
Over this last Sunday, March 27th, Bitcoin made a tremendous break out after forming a base above the long term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $44,500 (data set from $33,000(last year’s lows) to $69,000). Monday, March 28th marked the first time Bitcoin had a close above this pivotal level since January 4th. Following yesterday’s surge past $44,500 resistance and I labeled it the most important price point to determine future price direction.
This level consists of a Fibonacci harmonic and had been the highest value for the year 2022. The harmonic comes out of two Fibonacci data sets the first being a retracement encompassing the Spring 2021 rally to $60k (= .618%), and the second retraces the Fall 2021 rally that reached $69k from the 2021 lows. Both of the two most recent and captivating price spikes up past $60k. Interestingly enough the pinnacle Fib. ratio of .618 (or 1.618) harmonize at $44,100 and $46,240. In the middle of these two levels was both the previous record high of for this year and the .618% extension from the “freedom rally” and starting from support at $37,500.
The bullish offense was on the 4th down after three failed attempts to run the ball through this critical zone. Until on Saturday March 26th they squeaked out the last yard making it past the 50-yard line for the first time this season (2022). The bulls played the bears again for “Sunday Night Football” and the game started with a bang when the quarterback for the BTC bulls was able to get the pigskin down the field and into the hands of their star running back who hodled it into the endzone, scoring the first touchdown for the bulls in 2022.
Now that the bulls are in the lead and have control of the field, they are currently facing off against the bear’s defensive line attempting to stop the bulls at the new line of scrimmage. The line is drawn by the 200-day moving average, which was the intra-day high for the past two trading days.
With the bulls reinvigorated from their recent success fans can expect the bulls to find a hole in the bear’s defense when they do certainly they are likely to run all the way to $53,000 before turning over the ball.
Third Cycle has begun, Will Conclude at New ATH
Saturday’s breakout of its four-month range marked the end of Bitcoin’s accumulation period. Things have changed completely over the weekend. We had been forecasting since the end of January that Bitcoin was in its third iteration of an eight-month cycle it had performed twice before. The eight-to-nine-month cycles included a four-month parabolic rally, a three-month equally steep correction, and a two-month accumulation period before starting the cycle over again.
This seasonal rise, fall and forming of a base took us to both of our all-time highs above $60k and made higher highs and upon correcting made higher lows as well. Just as I stated in my article published on January 20th of this year, titled “Twin Tops in Bitcoin,” here’s an excerpt below.
The path that BTC has taken over the past 2 ½ months should really be no surprise to us at all, for it has followed the exact same trajectory in the three months following its first ATH ($65k) in 2021. Not only have the corrections following both all-time highs matched in both intensity and duration, but the rallies proceeding the apex in both instances also share very similar characteristics. If it continues to follow the symmetry that it has exhibited since December 2020 then we should be in for approximately one more month of further consolidation before rallying once more to a new all-time high by late spring or early summer…
…Should this pattern continue as it has and that would mean we would see another large rally beginning early Spring. All things being equal this symmetrical evolution of price in Bitcoin may be the path of least resistance and as they say, things usually come in threes. -
Jan. 24th, we made our bottom at $33,000, yesterday on March 27th we entered the parabolic rally phase of the third progression of its seasonal swings. The rally portion is the start of the cycle and usually will last around four months and we are expecting prices to not only make a new all-time high, which should reach as high as between $72,000 and $85,000. We should hit this new record high by the middle of July. Over the next few months BTC looks destined to finish this third “season” strong. The time for crypto bulls to pack the stands and scream like drunken frat boys has officially begun, so get your season tickets, your liqueur, paint your faces and we will see you at the Super Bowl. For anyone interested in viewing more of my articles, simply click this link.