Bitcoin Halving: Predicted Range $40K-$50K
“The Bitcoin Halving Hype: Analysts Predict a Range of $40,000 to $50,000”
An influential crypto analyst predicts significant gains for Bitcoin (BTC) in the near future, potentially reaching a range of $40,000 to $50,000.
During a recent session, quant analyst PlanB shared his insights with his YouTube subscribers, envisioning a substantial increase in the price of Bitcoin as it approaches its next halving event. The halving occurs approximately every four years and involves a reduction in BTC block rewards.
PlanB raises the question of how high the price of Bitcoin could be at the April 2024 halving and suggests estimating it based on the 200-week moving average. According to his analysis, the 200-week moving average is currently increasing by approximately $500 per month. Multiplying nine months by $500 yields $4,500.
The current 200-week moving average for Bitcoin is just below $28,000. Therefore, adding $4,500 would result in a 200-week moving average of around $32,000 at the time of the halving.
Traditionally, Bitcoin tends to trade around 50% above its 200-week moving average during halvings, indicating a potential price range of $40,000 to $50,000.
Last month, the analyst also pointed out an indicator suggesting that the leading crypto asset by market capitalization is likely to enter an upward trend. This indicator assumes that the price of BTC surpasses its two-year realized cost, which has historically signaled an upcoming rally.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $30,450, with a slight increase in the past 24 hours. If PlanB’s predictions come true, the price surge would represent a notable increase of 31% to 64% for the cryptocurrency.
What is a Block Halving? A block halving is a process that reduces the rate at which new cryptocurrency units are generated. Specifically, it refers to the regular halving events that decrease the block rewards granted to miners.
Why are Halvings important? Halvings are at the core of cryptocurrency economic models as they ensure that coins are issued at a predictable declining rate, maintaining a consistent pace. Such controlled money inflation is one of the main differences between cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat currencies, which have essentially unlimited supplies.
How many Bitcoin Halvings have occurred so far? Until July 2019, there have been only two Bitcoin halvings. These occurred on November 28, 2012, and July 9, 2016. At the time of the first halving event, the price of Bitcoin was $12.31, and at the time of the second halving event, the price of Bitcoin was $650.63.
There will only ever be 32 Bitcoin halvings. Once all of them have occurred, there will be no more halvings, and no further Bitcoins will be created as the maximum supply will have been reached.
How does the Bitcoin block halving work? The Bitcoin halving is an essential function of the Bitcoin protocol. The code can be found on the Bitcoin Core Github, and below is an excerpt of the code that enables Bitcoin halving. As documented in the code, the block subsidy is halved every 210,000 blocks.
How is our timer calculated? You may notice that our countdown provides a different estimation compared to other Bitcoin halving countdowns, and you may wonder, “Why?”
We believe that our countdown is more accurate as we use live blockchain statistics instead of the commonly quoted average block time (10 minutes) and estimate the current average block time to perform our calculation based on that. Our timer may fluctuate, but we believe it to be the most precise block halving clock.
(Block Halving — Next Block Height) * Average Time Between Blocks — Estimated Time Until the Next Block.
For more information on halvings, please refer to our glossary.
CAmount GetBlockSubsidy(int nHeight, const Consensus::Params& consensusParams)
{
int halvings = nHeight / consensusParams.nSubsidyHalvingInterval;
// Force block reward to zero when right shift is undefined.
if (halvings >= 64)
return 0;
CAmount nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years.
nSubsidy >>= halvings;
return nSubsidy;
}
