Bitcoin just cracked $72K just now. I only got $2k so what the heck can I do?!?
How not to lose the crypto game with short term randomness vs long term trend.
Let me say at the outset, that if you want all the juicy details of my rules and real-time based method you could go back through my articles over the last year and pick up the general gist of how I manage my portfolio for free. However for those who want exact details and specifically when I reset, rebalance and take profits in a weekly report, subscribe to my Substack for less than a dollar a day.
So I have been working with a case study of a $170,000 portfolio and the results have been quite respectable over the last two months. Taking profit has let me to accumulate quite a large sum outside of crypto, so I have re-combined it to a $250k portfolio moving forward. But this might be going over the head of the small to medium portfolio holder. Will my stuff work with a $2,000 portfolio?
Well I can confirm I had a reader start with just $2,119 on January 15th subscribe with my reports and now has $2,682 after taking out 2.5% profit every time the portfolio rose -at any time- by more than 5% over and over and this is one of many results like this from smaller bag holders in not even 60 days.
You do that math…
For the purpose of the examples used and the assets chosen (below) it was specifically optimized for BNB chain wrapped versions, the least slippage, low gas fees, and for a portfolio less that $2,000.
For the next 7-days my portfolio split. The following gives you a sneak peak of the percentage split of my portfolio:
This data is comprized of aligning with the long term trend as a binary decision. There is an indicator called a “Smoothed Heiken Ashi Candle” by “jackvmk” that take more noise out of the price action when used with normal Japanese candles or standard Heiken Ashi candle in combination. japanese candlesticks are better at reflecting the actual price as opposed to a smoothed trend to see pumps. (more on why you want that in a moment)
The below image depicts normal candles and the “smoothed Heiken Ashi” overlayed. Just with the latter, go into the indicator settings and make the wicks translucent and set the input of Len/Len2 both to “5”. This is done in a monthly timeframe. So let me break this down by process.
THE RULES:
First Level:
There should be a binary decision made to either hold or sell each asset in your portfolio each week with zero grey area. The colour change of the smoothed Heiken Ashi with keep you with the long term trend and ignore volatility, and therefore emotion and over-analysis. (I realize this will clearly leave some money on the table you are saying right? It would appear that way, but I have an answer for that to follow).
Second Level:
Never rebalance your portfolio unless you have more than 5% profit on the total portfolio ever. This will leverage the fact you had the brains to align with the long-term trend to begin with. Whenever you have between 5–10% profit at any time you can take some profits from the assets that have pumped the most (you see this is where I have addressed parabolic pumps to ensure you don’t feel like you ar missing out). Never do a full rebalance until the end of the trading week. Then you can shed some losers and add those funds to the winners. Unless you have 5% total portfolio profit, still do not rebalance until a weekly starts with that. As a rule I never take more than half the yield because I want the portfolio to grow in value over time. I would suggest not to continually deposit into this portfolio wallet regularly so you can keep track of you progress. If you do, perhaps every 90 days is a good checkpoint. In fact, most people won’t do this because their attention span cannot allow them to stick to a plan, let alone a 90-day one.
Third Level:
Any USD should be put into liquidity to earn interest on a decentralized Dex, an arbitrage bot or in some decentralized manor that will all but eliminate imperminent loss buy pairing a volatile asset with your stable asset. This addresses the use case of if you are currently sitting in some amount of stable coins because the chart told you to, how do you earn money still.
Forth level:
Create a simple excell spreadsheet if doing this yourself like I have pictured below, or sign up to follow my reports with a subscription to the Crypto Insider Report where it is all done for you every week if you are busy.
Summary:
This is a culmunation of refining my investing rules based on the premise of zero speculation and allowing current long term price performance to determine which assets to hold. My motivation comes from my knowledge of randomness in shorter timeframe charts. The longer the time-frame used when deciding where to invest, the easier it is to become profitable over time consistantly. Many a hot shot rich guy lost everything by playing too loose and I have seen this happen to influencers, close friends and others.
So there are two major problems facing “the avearge investor” and it is with all the information they get to see, which is, speculators giving their opinion while looking for multiple indicators for “confluence” and “probability” before making a leveraged trading decision with money they don’t have and can’t afford to lose. Or, there is the DCA hodler who is invested in all the coins and tokens he loved the narrative with, but does not have a plan to monitor each individual asset and will allow all the losing assets to drag down the value of his total portfolio, hoping for a turn around. What I preach is simply current long term price data to win long term, while compounding, taking regular profits, advising take-profit and rebalance areas, and importantly which assets to drop out of your portfolio for better prefomance.
So this is a very detailled article as I am “busting open the books” on what I do, but if anyone wants to learn more and give this a try for 90-days, the challenge yourself jump into my Substack and I will hand-feed you exactly what to do and when with this sort of detailled report weekly in my paid newsletter. I think there is a 7-day free trial, but as I mentioned that is not enough time or data for you to see the results you will get. Give it a shot if any of this rung true to you. This will be an epic bull market and it will not be without traps — unless you are looks closely at longer term trend and sticking with them, you will 100% sell when you should not and hold when you should have sold. Period. I use my own system so I don’t fall victim to my own impulses during 20–30% corrections. You do not need to be checking charts daily. My way takes 5-minutes a week. But you do you Boo.
below is and example of my view when switched to daily, both are trendin the same way, just one with less voatility, switch to monthly and you won’t eben see the volatility at all! Just the way I like it.
Here is a Twitter space I hosted yesterday for anyone interested in Pulsechain protocols, we had some of the biggest protocol founder on to chat
Be good, and talk soon. SBG.
Get practical and timely advice on how to handle your crypto investments with my Crypto Insider report. I use these tips myself for weekly decisions on buying, selling, and profit-taking. Commit to this 90-day plan and join other subscribers who find it helpful in any market, boosting your portfolio and guiding you on when to rebalance and what signals to act on.
My thesis has been very clear, it is time in the market and timing the market on longer timeframes that will create consistant profitability.
The smaller the timeframes you work in, the more you leave yourself susceptible to your emotions from random price volatility.
[Disclaimer] The opinions expressed are my own, they do not reflect the opinion of any companies mentioned. This article is intended as entertainment and education and any advice is general in nature as I do not know your personal circumstances. Seek a professional adviser for personal financial advice and never take investment advice from Gorillas unless they outperform the market!
