Bitcoin on-chain analysis, an overview of 4/22/22–4/29/22
Price sits between value and momentum thresholds, with the value being in the low-mid $30,000s and momentum above $47,000.
In blue the short-term holder cost basis, in orange, a ratio of realized price-liveliness; called HODLer implied price.
A bullish scenario based on this chart would be the push above the STH cost basis to regain momentum.
A bearish case would be a cross of STH cost basis before HODLer implied, a sign of capitulation to come.
To illustrate how significant these price levels are, look at realized price distribution:
Visualizing the amount of BTC last moved at each denominated price level.13.8% of Bitcoin’s money supply has last moved between $38,000 and $41,000.
Funding rates remain muted/mixed, an indication of a lack of strong opinion from the perpetual market as well as increasing market efficiency.
There has been a fairly strong signal of local recoveries aside from a slight premium in late November before an unprecedented dump of inventory by Asia in December. Asian trading hours have been trading Bitcoin at a premium for the first time since January.
Previous premium regimes: post covid crash, dip bought to $47K in April 2021, Massive dip-buying in summer 2021, dip bought to $40Kin September 2021, Dip bought in January.
The amount of supply not moved in at least a year climbed, reaching new highs of 64.5%.
Entities with over 1,000 BTC adding to their holdings for the first time since January.
BTC to move up you either need: Tech to rebound, pulling up BTC through correlation or a decorrelation.
The case for a decorrelation over the next 3–6 months can be made by looking at this data.
You have one group of correlation trading entities and one group of crypto natives holding their BTC/adding to their holdings.
The case for a decorrelation comes in the thesis that after a period of time the supply transfer will complete from the former to the latter. In the meantime correlation to NQ continues without any clear catalyst in the short term for BTC.
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