Bitcoin on-chain analysis, an overview of 7/15/22–7/22/22
Bitcoin On-Chain and Derivatives
Bitcoin has seen one of its furthest deviations from its 200-day trend in history, the only times its ever been this far below are highlighted below in green:
28K as resistance would also align with an underside retest of short-term holders’ cost basis; an occurrence we saw 4 times in 2018 on the way down. This confluence makes 28k an even more important price level IMO.
Coinbase is clearly skewed to the bidside, with bids stacked down from 20k down to 10k.
Perpetual swap open interest continues to climb in absolute terms (OI/Market cap).
At funding rates as a gauge for positioning aggression, there is a mixed regime for the last month indicating a lack in conviction of expectations from the market in aggregate.
Though again, if price can remain above that point of breakout ($22K) expectation of continuation is still in play.
Bitcoin’s correlation to the Federal Funds Rate maintains to be almost perfectly inverse, pairing this with its correlation to M2 money supply highlights how Bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement
Long-term holders are under pressure to the degree that has only occurred a few times before the 2012 bear market, 2015 bear market, and 2018 bear market.
Binance has dethroned Coinbase for having the most spot Bitcoin on their platform.