Bitcoin to 10K. Think I’m Crazy? Let me Show You Why I Might Not be!
Price Predictions
As always with price predictions and technical analysis it is all based on ideas that someone else has. I am not going to fluff this up and say that it will happen, but here is why I think that we will go lower than our current price of around 30,000. However, I will also say, I am using some math, and a chart that I have made myself. Feel free to do your own research and come up with ideas that you think on your own as well. It will not hurt my feelings, but this is an idea of what might be in store in the next several weeks or months.
History Psychological
When we as investors or traders look at getting into something that we are not 100% sure about or that is new, we all have worries. However we can look at what humans have done in the past and get an idea of what might happen in the future. We as animals are lazy. We like to take the path of least resistance and we tend to let others dictate what we “see” in a graph. One of the reasons you are probably reading this right now is you are asking yourself “does this guy make sense of what he is saying” and trying to justify to yourself when to go in with your investment. So as I said, we as humans like to see what other people are doing and see if it makes sense to us. So many times trading is exactly that for us, we want to see the easy way to do things, and then we continue with that.
So usually when there is a support or resistance area it is because other people and big institutions actually make that area and it appears to us as an area that we should be watching. So as we continue on, I want you to make sure you hear me when I say this. I am not saying this will happen, but I am here to make you think about things and see things in a bigger picture.
Let’s Look at the Past — 2017 — Bitcoin
When we look at the past we tend to start to notice different things that start to pop up on the charts and make us wonder if things like this will happen again. If we go back to June in 2017 we notice that we had a high point of about 3,000. This dropped about 50% and went back down to around 1775. From that point, my guess is that everyone who was even a bit interested in getting into Bitcoin wanted to buy in on a 50% pull back, so they did. Companies starting talking about Bitcoin and from that point the price of Bitcoin had an almost 180% increase to just shy of 5,000 per coin. From that there was a smaller pull back of about 40% to around 3,000 again, and then that is when the price exploded to around 20,000 for each coin. So in late 2017 Bitcoin went from around 3,000 all the way to 20,000 per coin. That is almost a 570% increase.
The Cold Year — 2018
If we continue looking at what the past has taught us, it is that the bottom can fall out of something at any moment. It doesn’t need to tell you it is getting ready to happen, it doesn’t have to have a reason, it is all based on what the mass amounts of people want something to do. In 2018 Bitcoin started extremely high and was coming down from an ATH for everyone, but the problem that happened was that had no reason to “stop” when it started to fall. It continued on a downward movement for the next full year and finally ended up being at another low of around 3,000. That is a drop of about 80% in 365 days. That is an insane idea to actually feel, know, and understand. However, this was the start of something new.
Starting to Look up Again — 2019
At the beginning of 2019 we were hovering right around the 3,000 area. This is at the beginning of the year. Again, we were all experiencing something new. We had people who had bought into Bitcoin at higher amounts 16k, 17k, 20k, only for it to come crashing back down to around 3,000. This was devastating to many people and it proved how easily crypto could swing as well as being very unforgiving. With this movement many people were ready to buy back in and continue “packing their bags” as many of us say in the crypto world. While these people packed their bags the price of bitcoin started to go up and by mid 2019 we saw a price of 14,000 again.
Gas up the Rocketship! — 2020
After we hit 14k we dropped back down to around 4,000 in early 2020. When this happened I think people realized that we had already hit 20k, and at around 4k people realized that they could invest, and at least double their investment. So they invested, packed their bags, and strapped themselves into the seat. Little did anyone know we would gas that rocketship up and head up to end our year at around 40,000, however, the gas did not run out yet.
In Order to Shoot an Arrow, You Need to Pull it Back First. -2021
Early 2021 we saw a pull back from 40k to 30k and then we again stopped at the gas station, gassed up, and then we shot off. By April we were back at 64k, and then by May news came out and we had a crash all the way back down to 30k. We then had people who had packed their bags and we made our way back up to 68k and another ATH.
Math is Fun! — 2022 and on!
Again, I am not wanting you to sit here and think that I am telling you that this will happen. Many times people have some extra money that they will wait to see what exactly is happening and make sure to get in on the action if something crazy does in fact happen. So let’s look at our numbers. If we look at going from around 3,000 all the way up to 20,000 that is about an increase of about 6.6 times. If we go from 20,000 all the way back down to 3,000 that would be a drop of about 85%. From 3,000 we went all the way up to 65,000 which is around an increase of 21 times. Now, IF WE DROP 80% AGAIN that would put us around 10k again. Do I think it will happen, probably not, but could it happen, yes very much so.
Again, my reason for writing this is so that if you are looking at these prices make sure you are always ready for the pull back. It can make people sick to see a big loss, but the reward can be very rewarding!
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