BTC Fair Value — Time for bulls to hibernate?
There’s so much excitement is in the air, it’s palpable! Oh wait, that’s the sweat and tears steaming from our red faces! Nearly 50% down from the ATH of 69k, to many, the situation can feel hopeless. 30–40% or more BTC holders now completely underwater. Nothing but pain since the peak! The reality of the situation isn’t so bad though, if we take a step back and force ourselves to have some perspective.
BTC price growth curve can be quite nicely modeled with a simple logarithmic regression line. The typical price, and the higher and lower ranges. It’s not an exact science, but if we find the median line where BTC’s price was almost precisely half the time above (bull bubble) and half the below (bear bubble), we end up with what I and others call BTC’s “Fair Value”. Of course, it’s arbitrary, but I believe it to be a great tool to help us find some perspective among all the chaos.
My Fair Value model indicates to me personally that we’ve only JUST NOW entered into ‘bear warning’ territory. Not saying we’re not already in a bear market… it’s possible we are. But at this point, it’s still equally likely that we’re not. It’s on the edge.
I’m watching for the next big move. If we end up bouncing from here, we can expect something like another 100–200 days of bullish momentum. It’s could turn out this dump was just what we needed to initiate the mania phase those who are calling for 100k+ BTC’s have been waiting for. If we close a weekly candle below the bottom range of the Fair value, currently sitting about -20% below current levels at 32k… I’m deeply sorry to say it, but HODL on to your BTC folks, but this bear market has only really just begun.
On the optimistic side, long-term, BTC continues to hold to the regression growth model! HODL on folks, because according to my own indicator anyway, BTC’s Fair Value by 2022 will be at 65k, and 100k+ by end of 2023. Think about that for a minute before you decide to dump and run folks. Think about that…
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