How the next crypto cycle will play out

This chart compares the price action from the previous 4- year cycle to where we are now and where we could possibly be going in the future as we continue through this 4-year cycle.

Looking at where we are now in the pre-halving 2023 year:

Currently it is one day from September in the pre-halving year of 2023, the price topped out at $31,500 in July, after rallying the first half of the year.

Since July’s high, Bitcoin has been through a long summer with price action slowly fading down from the $30,000 area ($26,000 at the time of this writing). If price and sentiment continue playing out like 2019, then we should see some more downside until around December when we find the final bottom for this cycle.

Whether it sets a new low or a higher low (only time will tell), this next correction according to the last cycle will be a favorable time to buy Bitcoin and high conviction plays to HODL over the next 1–2 years.

Looking at the previous 2019 pre-halving year:

The pre-halving year of 2019 also began with a rally up for the first half of the year topping out in June. The following half of the year corrected down finding the final bottom in December.

During this year Bitcoin did not set a new low, but a higher low.

You can argue that the Covid event in March 2020 was a black swan event which is why the price fell below the 2019 December lows. Even with the Covid event in 2020, price recovered and was in an uptrend all year.

Thoughts and comments:

We can be open to the idea of a similar path to play out in the future with 2025 being the bull market year for crypto, but nothing is certain.

We can also consider leaning towards this year (2023) potentially to be setting a lower high in December, not a new low. Either way, this will be a favorable time to buy Bitcoin to hold through 2025.

There is also the idea that this cycle will be different than the last cycles as we are under different circumstances in the macro environment. Crypto has not existed before during a QE environment (the money printer is not currently going burr) and the overall tradfi markets look uncertain.

We are in a tough market, a lot of uncertainty and no new money coming in. But according to this chart you might should stick around, there will be a time when the markets become more favorable (macro markets and economy also) the opportunities will come in greater waves, and this will be the time to take advantage.

“Survive the bear market, take advantage of the bull market.”

Feel free to leave a comment on your thoughts, do you consider previous cycles to continue to play out the same, or different this time?

This is also just for curiosity purposes, do not take this as advice.