Jul 1, 2021
Crypto Market Half Yearly Pivots Review & Analysis
At the beginning of 2021 I have published an analysis of potential profit based on Yearly Pivots, Half a Year later and it’s time to recap: How did that go? Who were the winners and losers? Who still holds potential for expansion, and which assets just moved like a farting balloon deflating all hot air?
Back in January, I published this chart which was the bottom line of the minimum and maximum potential profit that the newly minted yearly Pivots offered.
This was the chart:
It described how much profit awaited an asset on the Yearly R1, On the Yearly R5 and was the asset at years beginning below the Pivot (Considered not so bullish) or above the Pivot (Considered bullish). Why am I referring to the assets below the pivots as “not so bullish” instead of “bearish” as supposed to by Pivot laws? I do that because at the time, the market seemed to be with a high degree of certainty, on a bullish trend. Making even those assets that signaled indecision and weakness, hold a bullish potential, in some cases offering an even more lucrative upside than those who opened the 2021 with obvious strength.
I’d like to start in the place where the Analysis ended:
And lastly, if you believe in miracles, XRP is offering the highest upside from the old guard. But good luck with that…
Who says Miracles don’t happen? Would you like to compare the 720% XRP did at this year’s top to the amazing run that Bitcoin and ethereum did? Sure thing, here is Bitcoin with It’s “Fantastic” run of 116% profit at this year top:
And this is the much more bullish Ethereum with it’s 245% move to the Yearly R5 but an over all yearly top so far of almost 500%:
So which one of those three was the best trade for the Year so far? On it’s face value it seems that the XRP trade, for the extremely disciplined trader, was exceptional. In at the beginning of the year with the risk of taking the trade below the Yearly Pivot, and exiting very comfortably on the Yearly R5 with those 720% compared to disciplined trades on Bitcoin exiting on the R3 and Ethereum exiting on the R5 with a much lower return.
But wait, there are a few caveats in those trades. First, since Bitcoin marked a yearly top so far, on the weekly candle of April 12th, it has retraced 45% while Etherem has retraced 60% from it’s late top in May and XRP did a -70% deflating a bit harder demonstrating extreme volatility and giving off the strong smell of scam that was rightly or wrongly always associated with it. But still, for the first half of the year, it offers currently a return of 186% compared to the ~200% ROI that ETH offers and the lousy ~20% ROI of Bitcoin so far!!!
As the charts above demonstrate, some assets respected this year’s Pivots while other which showed extra bullishness just broke through them with incredible force. Take Bitcoin for example, It opened this year above the Pivot, ran all the way to the Yearly R3 where it met it’s match and now have retraced almost the entire yearly run giving back it’s profits.
ETH on the other hand also opened the year bullishly above the Pivot, climbed all the way to the Yearly R5 at ~$2500 punching through it and reaching a top of $4380, and now has given back ~60% of it’s profits to the market.
XRP demonstrated a perfect pivot trade on this year’s first half. It has opened the year considerably below the pivot providing a meaningful up side, went all the way the the Yearly R5 providing a perfect exit, and has since gave back to the market 70% of this year’s profits, but it is still up significantly!
The above assets each belong to a different Pivot family. XRP, COMP, SNX, Link and you might add XLM and LTC, all provided the almost perfect Pivot trade with an exit on the R5. You can see it also in the chart below that compares the year’s top so far, to the the R5 potential upside from the beginning of the year. Where the Yellows and the Reds correlate strongly.
The second group is those assets which busted hard through the R5 showing higher bullishness, where the Yellows > Reds. This does not always mean that they provided more ROI than the asset family above, but in most cases they did. In this group you can find things like ETH, ADA, BNB, Steller, KSM and CHR. One could claim that these coins demonstrate extra bullishness along with sound fundamentals, and might be the interesting bunch to pay attention to in case the market starts another bullish cycle. If wave theory offer a higher high than the ones recorded this year, just imagine the POTENTIAL up side on Cardano or CHR.
And than there’s the under achievers group where the Yellows < Reds. Those which stopped mid way this year, usually on a R3 or even R1. Bitcoin is leading the group with the Yearly R3 acting as Resistance. XTZ, Sushi, YFI, NEM and DOT which provided a huge anti climax to the hype around it, reaching the Yearly R1 only to fall currently back Below the Yearly Pivot. This group has generally also gave back almost all of it’s yearly profit back to the market after six months.
You could claim that this last group which performed poorly this year still has the R5 and above potential to reach, in case of another bullish wave. Yes, it is more than possible, but in some cases, you might clear away from those coins who showed extreme weakness this year and gave off almost their entire Half Yearly profit and in some cases are even in a Yearly loss. Here is a chart that will help to better understand who are the best and worst performers:
So what can I take from all of this? Well a few things: First and foremost - Pivots Work! and work well! There is not even one asset which did not reach it’s minimum projected target from the beginning of the year. Out of those 19 coins, 13 have reached at least the maximum projected target of the R5, the rest found also resistance at different Pivot levels ranging from the R1 to the R3. If you know how to pay attention to market structure you might just get things right:
What else can I take from analyzing the first half year? I’d say, that those assets that showed bullishness / extra bullishness, and also have managed to keep a meaningful part of their profits on this first half year run and retrace, could serve as the interesting bunch for the next cycle, If and when it comes. Bullishness + retaining strength and some/strong fundamentals, could indeed serve as an indication, but the market does not comply with logic, it rarely does. So please take this piece with a big grain of salt and remember it is not in any way trading advice.
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