Crypto Predictions for 2024
Some rational and generally contrarian speculation on what’s in store for crypto in 2024.
The last couple years have been a rollercoaster of ups and downs. If you made through this bear market, a solid congratulations is in order. If you are new to the crypto markets and just dipping your toes for the first time, you could not have picked a better moment to take the leap. 2024 is setting up to be one of the most explosive years in crypto’s short history.
Crypto is a raging stormy sea of opportunities, it is successfully navigated only by one’s rational thought. That process of drowning out the noise and ignoring the FUD and FOMO is a battle fought by even the most grizzled crypto veterans, and is probably the single most important factor in keeping your treasure-laden ship afloat. Most ships sink in the trying, but the few that reach Valhalla are the minority that enjoy (and keep) their life changing gains.
Previous Predictions (Aug 2023)
Aug 6th, 2023: BTC was at $29,000, ETH was $1,825
My last attempt at predicting the course of the crypto markets in early August of 2023 fared remarkably well … so far. Granted, many of them still remain predictions “in progress”, but for the vast majority the last 6 months have not changed my views. (Full Aug 6th article here.)
There are no crystal balls, but logic and rational analysis can often paint a reasonably accurate interpretation of what is to come. You can use logic to paint that vision of the future, but in the end it is only a representation. Here is a highlight reel of what I predicted then to occur by the fall of 2025, and what I still believe is likely to play out:
- Top Narratives: Gaming, Launchpads, All-in-one wallets ✅
- BTC at Halving: $55K–65K ❔
- ETH at Halving $3,000 — $3,500 ❔
- BTC at new ATH: $185K — $250K (12–16x from lows) ❔
- ETH at new ATH: $18K — $25K (20x — 28x) ❔
- Total Crypto Market Cap: $7–10T (3x) ❔
- 2026 Bear Market Drop (BTC) 70–75% ❔
- Rate hike pivot and QE in 2024 ✅
- General Bull Run Timeline: “expect the full on bull run to start towards June/July of 2024 and extend well into 2025, fading out in the fall of 2025 near Sept/Oct.”
- Two predictions that are not looking great at the time of writing are “Airdrops narrative will be a big flop” and “Layer 1’s will lose their luster”. I still think the latter will play out, but may have underestimated the airdrops (eg $TIA)
For the comprehensive list of predictions and rationale, check out the full article below:
2024 Predictions:
The coming 12–18 months are setting up to be very hyperbolic. It is still my belief that this will be the largest and most explosive bull run to date by capital inflows and associated increase in total crypto market cap. Here is a highlight reel of some of the more impactful predictions for 2024:
- ETH will outperform BTC in 2024.
ETH dominance and associated ETH/BTC ratio will increase steadily throughout the year, accelerating after the BTC ETF approvals. Current ETH/BTC is 0.052 and ETH dominance is a mere 16.87%. I expect the eventual ETH/BTC to top out later in the cycle near 0.1–0.12BTC, effectively a doubling vs Bitcoin, and the dominance to top out at a more muted 20% as a result of increasing altcoin dominance.
2. BTC and ETH will both surpass previous ATH’s by a wide margin (EOY targets BTC $85K–90K, ETH $7,500 –8,500)
Most folks still view BTC and ETH through a lens of bear market PTSD. I believe the vast majority of influencoor price predictions are much too conservative, and that both BTC and ETH will surpass the previous ATH’s by a significant margin before the end of 2024, exploding parabolically in early 2025.
3. BTC dominance will drop post-ETF approvals.
The allure of BTC is still highly rooted in speculation. Once the ETF’s are approved, and the more gradual flow of capital fails to meet speculative expectations, capital will rotate to ETH, L2s and other alternatives. This will cause the Altcoin markets to outperform BTC markedly for the remainder of the bull market, and BTC dominance to drop. Note: the alts will also crash and burn much more spectacularly when the new bear sets in.
4. BTC and ETH spot ETFs will both launch in 2024.
Self explanatory and less contrarian, but these are substantial developments that will change the landscape of crypto forever, and open the gates to the overwhelming majority of “normies”. Although I expect initial capital inflow to underperform the outsized expectations, long term that capital inflow will be gigantic and market changing. It will also be a one way door locking huge percentages of the already squeezed circulating supply, and a vehicle for passive inflows from retirement funds and managed funds. Deep dive here.
5. Layer 2s will gain substantial market share versus Layer 1s.
The reality is that the age-old argument that transaction costs are too high for many L1s are nonsensical. They ignore the key fact that ETH in particular has evolved as a settlement layer rather than a transactional layer. Layer 2’s are just bulk buyers of Layer 1 blockspace, and the future of ETH is for storage and settlement of wealth, while Layer 2s and 3’s allow for transactional layers that can be custom built for any purpose. As such, Layer 2’s will gain significant TVL and Daily Active Users, which will benefit both the transactional (L2s) and settlement (L1s) layers, with the vast majority of activity occurring on the Layer 2s.
6. Total Stablecoins outstanding will hit $750B to $1 Trillion
Stablecoins are like the fuel for the crypto ecosystem. One of the best metrics for a healthy bull run is the rate of printing of new stablecoins. USDT has gone from roughly $66B market cap at the start of 2023 to $91B at the end of the year, a nearly 40% increase. Granted, some of that is absorption of the market cap of other stables like USDC, but that number will accelerate drastically after the ETF approvals and as the bull run matures.
7. A significant sovereign entity will announce accumulation of Bitcoin reserves.
Hash rate has increased substantially even throughout the bear market, reaching a remarkable 570M TH/S at time of writing. Much of that increase is not attributable to publicly traded companies, and there is a solid chance there are price agnostic entities adding hash power even as the halving approaches and profitability will decrease by half.
8. The same FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) will be recycled.
Tether collapse, China BTC ban, blah blah blah. Crypto can be slowed, but never stopped. Get ready for the FUD now, so you can comfortably ignore it down the road and avoid panic sells.
9. NFT’s will make a huge comeback.
NFT’s have been all but left for dead. Some of the premier projects are seeing a resurgence in interest, but a full blown NFT mania will be back this bull run. NFT’s may be hibernating, but when they emerge from their slumber they will have some parabolic moves.
10. Aggregators will take over crypto.
Most DEX’s, DeFi platforms, bridges and marketplaces will be used via third party integrations … aggregators. Protocols like Zerion, Metamask, 1inch, and others will be the main user-facing platforms that gain traction and volume, while DEX’s like Uniswap and Pancakeswap, bridges like Stargate or Wormhole, etc will all be integrated into these protocols on the back end.
Conclusion:
Having researched non-stop for the better part of four years, I understand the crypto markets at a very fundamental level. I have a deep long term conviction that crypto will one day take over the world of finance, and subsume the vast majority of wealth in circulation, and that conviction has helped me ride out some nasty storms.
It is exceptionally important to understand the technology and industry you are investing in, and that is always an evolving and ongoing process. In a nascent technology like crypto, it evolves so quickly that it takes constant attention and research to keep up to date. My writing , and your reading of it, are a part of that process (for both of us 🍻)
The next 18 months will be the most pivotal in crypto history, and if you are here now reading this article, you are well positioned to build life-changing wealth and achieve what 95% of folks never will … freedom from the fiat hamster wheel, the proverbial rat race we are all stuck in.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto
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