Crypto Roundup #19: Bitcoin’s Resilient Rise
Hey there, crypto enthusiasts! I apologize for not posting last week. Things have been quite busy, but let’s catch up on what’s been happening in the crypto space for the past two weeks (from June 26th to July 9th). Usually, the summer period tends to be quieter, but we still have some interesting developments to discuss. So let’s dive in!
News Highlights
- LTC Halving: Litecoin’s halving event, scheduled for early August, has generated excitement among crypto enthusiasts. Could this be the sign for a new alt season ahead for the next few weeks? We’ll discuss this, later in the article.
- Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF Filing: Fidelity, a leading retirement plan provider, has filed for a Bitcoin ETF, reflecting growing institutional interest in crypto investment products.
- UK Recognition of Bitcoin: The United Kingdom has officially recognized Bitcoin as a financial asset, underscoring its acceptance and legitimacy in the global financial landscape.
- North Carolina has passed a bill in the house to study holdling Bitcoin on the state balance sheet.
- HSBC, the largest bank in Hong Kong, will offer a Bitcoin ETF to its customers.
- FTX is moving ahead with efforts to revive its cryptocurrency exchange.
Bitcoin
Now, let’s dive into some technical analysis, starting with Bitcoin’s monthly chart. The chart is looking great, with a clear bottom established in November 2022. We can see that we’re still following the familiar four-year cycle, as seen in previous bottom cycles, such as the one in December 2018. What can we expect next?
A push to the $36k level is likely, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. We’ve seen similar patterns in previous cycles, where the price experienced a significant decline followed by a bounce-back. However, as this is a monthly chart, it’s essential to keep in mind that these developments occur over a more extended period. With the halving approaching in April 2024, current prices around $30k still present a great opportunity for long-term investors. Any pullback of 30–40% would provide an enticing buying opportunity, but we may need to exercise patience.
Now, let’s move to the weekly chart for Bitcoin. We can observe that the price has been trading within a range between $15k and $31k for over a year. This range represents a double from the bottom, which explains why it has been challenging to break through. Many individuals who bought at the bottom have taken some profits after a 100% gain, contributing to the resistance at this level. Breaking above $31k is crucial for Bitcoin to establish a new uptrend and maintain its bullish momentum. At the moment, we’ll have to exercise patience and wait for a decisive move.
Zooming in to the daily chart, we can see a different picture compared to the longer timeframes. The daily chart shows signs of an exhausting move. While Bitcoin broke out of the downtrend channel that lasted from April to June, the subsequent breakout didn’t have enough buying volume to sustain the momentum. The price has been ranging between $29k and $31k for a few weeks now, and the volume is declining. Additionally, we witnessed a bearish divergence in the RSI, indicating a potential weakening in the short term.
There’s a possibility that Bitcoin may retest the $30k support level, and a healthy price structure would involve revisiting the breakout lows around $27k and potentially forming a bullish pattern like a double bottom. This type of price action would provide the necessary strength to continue moving higher. However, we need to closely monitor the price as it bounces within the aforementioned range. Patience is key.
Ethereum
Now, let’s shift our focus to Ethereum. ETH’s monthly chart presents a more positive outlook compared to Bitcoin. It has formed a clear double bottom, confirmed by the RSI, signaling a bottom for ETH. This development establishes a solid floor before the potential excitement of an upcoming bull market. While ETH’s future performance remains to be seen, it’s essential to recognize this positive price structure and the potential it holds.
On the weekly chart, we can observe that ETH has been trading within an ascending triangle for over a year. While it has held strong, it hasn’t gathered enough momentum to break through the $2k resistance level. As with Bitcoin, we may need to exercise patience and wait for a few more weeks before witnessing a new yearly high for ETH. Remember, the longer the channel, the bigger the potential run, so be patient and keep an eye on developments.
Altcoins
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin currently leads the market, but that doesn’t mean you should disregard other tokens entirely. Many altcoins are down more than 90% from their all-time highs, presenting attractive price levels for potential investments. However, it’s crucial to consider that altcoins may experience further declines in the coming months. The real gains may not materialize until Bitcoin breaks a new all-time high.
Bitcoin dominance has been increasing steadily, breaking through the 50% resistance level. This indicates that altcoins may experience more downside pressure if Bitcoin fails to break higher in the coming weeks. However, it also suggests that altcoins are currently available at discounted prices. While Bitcoin may offer 3–4x returns in the coming years, choosing the right altcoins could potentially yield 20x or even 100x returns. Keep an eye on altcoins, but also be mindful of the ongoing dominance trend.
Conclusion
That wraps up our analysis for this week. It’s been an eventful period with some exciting developments, institutional interest, and technical patterns to watch. As always, it’s essential to conduct your own research and make informed decisions when investing in cryptocurrencies.
Follow me on Twitter and Medium for more weekly altcoin picks, market insights, and updates. Remember, patience and strategy are key in navigating the crypto market. Happy investing, and see you soon!
Silver
