current market evaluation of 2022 Q1

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Coinmonks

6 min readFeb 25, 2022

Hi!

This is deneth.eth, a cryptocurrency & NFT enthusiast, former barista and a terrible writer. The views are my own and don’t reflect any financial advice, please dyor lol

This is my first medium publication so.. yeah. A bit stressed. anyway

I want to mention that we are having the Russia-Ukraine crisis at the moment and market’s been choppy lately. War has no winners, and my prayers go to the people whom are having hard times in this moment.

Summarize of the 2021 would be wild. Everything going parabolic, famous brands like Visa buying Punks, Adidas buying Bored Ape & Crypto.com buying the Staples Center were one of the biggest things we saw in the space. Previous year, there has been a huge shift from corporate and awareness of crypto & NFT space. Though we still have one more month to the end of the Quarter 1 of 2022, my opinions will be about the former cycle and reflecting how the markets will perform.

I want to spread it into three parts. First part will be the crypto, where probably all met at a some point of our lives and become the nerds of Para-Time & Consensus-Layers.

Layer-1 Ecosystems

We had seen a huge growth in Layer-1 Ecosystems previous year, and they are still outperforming most of the market while they are going to zero. These are mostly Avalanche, Solana, Oasis Network, Fantom, Harmony and Near. The weekest of this 6 is $Rose. Suprisingly, strongest partnerships by means of corporate power, $ROSE is the strongest of them all. I think these crypto currencies are becoming more efficent in different ways as we get to the end of the cycle. For example, Avax is good for gaming, Solana for complex finance stuff and Luna to be most benefited coin from it’s stablecoin growth. This is still uncertain, but these “ethereum killer layer-1’s” will find their way in the market.

I don’t think that these layer-1’s will be the forgotten and abandoned even if we go through a horrible bear market. The space in 2017 were such different than today, there were literally almost no use of crypto back then. My views are only valid to those 6 layer-1’s I mentioned, because they were successful about making an ecosystem (except for rose, for now) and creating a real usage of something.

Let’s check the chart of ETH, AVAX, ROSE, SOL, ONE, FTM, and NEAR.

The chart starts from 1 January 2021 and ends in 25 February 2022. I didn’t include $LUNA in this chart, nor in the paragraph above because I literally have no idea what it is doing. It had spent approximately 3 months consolidating before pushing to 100$ . Let me add this from another substack, “Luna has the best tokenomics of any L1 as it is the only chain with a built-in decentralized stablecoin. UST is designed such that as the demand for UST increases, there are mechanisms in place where LUNA is burned to match this demand and maintain UST’s peg to $1.” -blknoiz06

Here’s a bonus image of “trend” on ETH to give y’all my thoughts. I’ll be happy to buy 2200$, lucky to buy 1800$ and lower ETH with a painful smile on my face.

LOOKSRARE

$looks came into market with a huge marketting, airdropping a lot and giving out huge staking rewards, it become a “thing” too fast. The idea of “OpenSea Killer” narrative is like layer-1’s being ethereum killer, so this is likely not to happen in both ways. Looksrare has lost it’s momentum when the rumors of team cashing out their money via tornadocash pushed looks to a horrendous downtrend, pushing under 1$. The idea behind the project is cool, the team is not doxxed but keeps working and the tokenomics is fine. The only success will be only achieved if there’ll be a less wash trading and more user shift and we’ll likely see a swing on it’s price action only then. I don’t want to keep it long so y’all can read twitter/cobie ‘s substack which is pretty inclusive about $looks. https://cobie.substack.com/p/incentives-structures?utm_source=url

NFT’s

NFT’s had their first boom in the 2021, and had a great shift from Crypto. People started buying .jpeg’s instead of right click saving them (jk)

I seize the market into three categories,

1- The projects that’ll likely backed up by huge clothing brands or companies

2- The projects that are fundraising for doing something cool

3- The projects that has community and providing utilities to them

There are good & bad consequences of each one.

First one, the projects that’ll likely backed up by huge clothing brands or companies, are the ones like Catblox (backed by Puma), RTFKT, Adidas Originals into the Metaverse etc. These projects sometimes come out straight by the firms or get backed by them if the artist is well known. These are, in my opinion, are good plays if you are early or took the action early. Otherwise, in the NFT Bear Market, yes they do store their value compared to other market participants but as they lack community they are fragile.

Second one, the projects that are fundraising are dayum a lot. These are good for flipping, and making one of those “mint 2 sell one for two price and keep one for free” plays. As the projects are new, and lacks funds, they take some time to build things up. As one may expect, very few of them succeed, but oh those returns. “Rome wasn’t built in a day” right?

The third one is the projects that has community and provides utilites for their holders. Ninja Squad is a perfect example for this narrative. A trading community called Ninja Traders, rooting back to 2017, established their NFT Project Ninja Squad. The volatility in the market hits those projects too, but they stand stronger compared to other projects since they have a community. Sneaky Vampire Syndicate is also a good example, they have a solid community and they launched few projects. In the first two examples you can expect a project to go lower than the mint price in the mint day, but these projects have such a community that the mint price isn’t likely to be seen any soon after their mint. These are the best plays if you are looking for a long term investment & want to feel belong to a community.

General View & Summary

I don’t think we’ll have long bull-bear cycles like the previous ones neither in the crypto space nor NFT’s. The acquisition by both the companies & the people have driven the whole market into a co-related system which gets affected by a lot of things. Everyone is trying to join the Metaverse, from large companies to well known artists, and attention is likely to keep shifting towards that space.

Natural Gas, Electricity & Commodities will most probably keep rising for a while. However, I’m expecting gold or silver to keep performing good but this’ll likely take 3–4 years to do a 5x. So, if you’re in Crypto or NFT’s, you probably won’t go for them. Personally I do buy some of this and some of that to make a more secure bag. We witnessed the rise of the gold and the fall of BTC with the Russia news recently, so it’s always good to diversify your portfolio.

Here is a chart I took from twitter.com/sss4321_s which sprinkles a little bit of enthusiasm and tension to all of us.

Thanks to everyone who made it to the end of it lol. Apprecited!

deneth.eth

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current market evaluation of 2022 Q1

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