Drizzle oblique wind, light smoke sparse willow | WTR 10.09

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This report is provided by the “WTR” Research Institute.

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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji ; Elk Will Not Get Lost @crypto_elk_ ; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone ;

Review this week

This week, from October 2nd to October 9th, the highest near 28,580 dollars of rock sugar orange, the lowest close to 27,160 dollars, the oscillation range reached about 4.97%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 27,000, which will provide some support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000–31000 about 4.28 million pieces;
2. 20,000 to 25,000 about 1.63 million;

• The probability of not breaking through in the short term is 79% between 24,000 and 26,000.
• The probability of not breaking through 32,000 to 34,000 in the short term is 65%.

Important news aspect

Economic news

1. Federal Reserve Mester: May need to raise interest rates again in 2023 and maintain them for a period of time.
2. US September non-farm payroll data is almost twice as expected, and the market expects the interest rate cut to be postponed from July to September next year
3. Non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%.

In terms of encrypted ecosystem messages

1. Real-world asset protocol Backed Finance has published a tokenized US short-term Treasury ETF on the Base chain called blB01, which offers a 5.2% yield.
2. The US judge rejected the SEC ‘s appeal of the $XRP ruling in the Ripple case.
3. Multiple Ethereum futures ETFs were listed with total trading volume of less than $2 million on the first trading day.
4. Jefferies: BTC is a key hedging tool against inflation, on par with gold.
5. US House Speaker McCarthy was ousted and crypto-friendly lawmaker Patrick McEnry took over on an interim basis.
6. Ripple has been granted a major payment institution license by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
7. The number of active developers in the encryption field has reached its lowest level since 2020.
8. DEX trading volume in September continued to hit a new low since January 2021.
9. OpenAI founder Sam Altman participated in Joe Rogan’s podcast and expressed his approval of Bitcoin’s potential to become a universal currency.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the likelihood of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insight

• Market derivatives status

Derivatives often play an extremely important role in the market. Usually, in the absence of external forces in the market, the derivatives class presents a cyclical state internally.

(Figure below, market derivatives status)

This is a visual representation of advanced Data Analysis and feature processing.

Further deepening on top of the whole market derivative structure.

Generally, in the medium to long term, the market will have eight states.

From zero to seven states.

The third to fourth states are a dividing point. Generally, when the market is relatively good and derivatives do not have much risk, or when short rolling is underway, it is generally under the third state.

In general, if it drops below the second state, it is used to judge relative safety.

In general, if it rises above the fifth state, the relative risk will be judged.

The risks are shown in red, and those with lower risks are shown in blue.

Because the market derivative status itself has a cyclical effect, it is generally a relatively good medium-term and long-term indicator for judging the market stage.

There are many displays at the top and bottom of the medium and long-term stages.

Currently, the derivatives market is in the middle stage, and the derivatives market is relatively neutral.

Mid-term exploration

• Online emotional positivity
• Trends in the perception of new forces
• High weight selling pressure
• Short-term participant profit percentage composite model

(Figure below, online emotional positivity)

Circulation in the market is slowly healing and may still be in this trend. It may be slightly more difficult to short before weakening.

From the previous situation, there will be a leading performance in the mid-term trend performance. It is possible that the market has jointly chosen a positive attitude at a certain node, so the data will show a positive performance.

(Figure below, the trend of new forces’ views)

The short-term liquidity of the market cannot be separated from the support of new forces. This model tests the views and trends of new forces through market value circulation and spending.

Usually, in the case of long-term and short-term divergence, the increase in the proportion of long-term participants and the decrease in the proportion of short-term participants are judged as long-term and short-term changes, but it is also possible that the market’s participation in new forces has sharply decreased.

Currently, the willingness of the new forces to participate is gradually being restored, that is, the circulation of this group is slowly recovering, and there may not be much performance in the short term, which will take some time.

(Figure below, high weight selling pressure)

High-weight selling pressure has been applied to the market and may take some time to digest.

It may be adjusted within a certain range from the current performance, and the tone may be maintained until the market changes.

(Figure below, short-term participant profit percentage composite model)

• Blue line: cumulative group supply
• Yellow line: short-term participant supply

Accumulative groups show a strong willingness to increase holdings , and the recent rush to raise is large.

The current performance may suggest that there are a certain number of buyers in the market.

At the same time, short-term participants currently have a certain degree of emotional easing, reducing their willingness to sell.

Short-term observation

• Risk factor of derivatives
• Option intention-to-trade ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Implied volatility of options
• Profit-loss transfer
• Add addresses and active addresses
• Bingtang Orange Exchange Net Position
• Net position of the Aunt Exchange
• High weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Net position of stablecoin exchange
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: risk factor in danger zone, increased risk

(Figure below, risk coefficient of derivatives)

The risk coefficient has been hovering in the danger zone for the past week, and there has been no large-scale short-rolling, which is expected to remain consistent with last week.

(Figure below, option intention-to-trade ratio)

The trading volume of options has increased slightly, and the proportion of put options has not changed much compared with last week, and is currently at a median level.

(Figure below, derivatives trading volume)

However, the current derivative trading volume is still at a low level without much volatility, indicating that there are more derivative traders in a wait-and-see state, but it also indicates that the volatility is not far away.

(Figure below, implied volatility of options)

The implied volatility of options has not changed much compared to last week, and the active level of options traders is generally

Emotional state rating: neutral

(Figure below, profit and loss transfer amount)

The rise in prices has led to an increase in positive sentiment, while panic remains low. The current price has reached the cost range for short-term holders. This week, we are still concerned about the market panic represented by loss transfer volume.

(Figure below, add address and active address)

This week, there has been a small decrease in new addresses and a small decrease in active addresses. The level of on-chain activity is low.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it shows a cumulative outflow state, with low selling pressure.

(Below, the net position of the Bingtang Orange Exchange)

The pie is currently in a moderate outflow state.

(Net position of E-Pacific Exchange in the figure below)

E is currently in a small inflow state.

(Figure below, high weight selling pressure)

There is currently no high weight selling pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stable currency purchasing power has slightly rebounded.

(Figure below, global purchasing power status)

The purchasing power of Asia and Europe is still recovering, while the purchasing power of the Americas, which has a larger weight, has been lost to negative values.

(Net position of USDT exchange in the figure below)

USDT is currently in a small inflow state.

Off-chain transaction data rating: willing to buy at 26,000; willing to sell at 29,000.

(Coinbase off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 23,000, 24,000, 25,000, and 26,000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 29000, 30000, and 31000.

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 25,000, 26,000, and 27,000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 29000, 30000, and 31000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 23,000, 24,000, and 26,000.

There is a willingness to sell near the price of 30,000.

This week’s summary:

News summary:

1. With Non-Farm Payroll Data beating expectations, market traders seem to be betting on the expectation that the last rate hike of the year will take place in November.

The world’s attention is also increasing, as this may be the last rate hike this year or there may be no rate hike, depending on the choice and advance remarks of the Federal Reserve itself.

From a cyclical perspective, under the continuous negative impact, the market’s ability to bear further increases. More people are gradually shifting from looking for evidence of negative news to looking for evidence of positive news, and many of them are concerned about the near future halving.

Capital Markets is a game of expectation. When the most difficult time has passed, it can be imagined that the long period of decline will also decrease in the future, and even usher in a special structural market trend.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The updated market derivatives situation has a deeper exploration of the market cycle cycle and a more predictive effect on the phased peak and bottom.
2. The current market derivatives situation is neutral in the medium to long term.

• Market setting:

The derivative structure of the market is relatively stable and has not undergone much change. The next issue will focus on data research from Black Swan.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

1. The circulation of the market is good, and the difficulty of short selling is high at present;
2. The new forces are in a state of repair.
3. The market currently has selling pressure that needs to be digested.
4. The accumulation group is increasing, and the willingness of short-term participants to sell is decreasing

• Market setting:

Fix

The current liquidity of the market has a good performance, and it may increase the difficulty of short selling when the performance weakens.

Short-term observation on the chain:

1. The risk factor is in the danger zone, and the risk increases.
2. The new active address is at a low level, and the market active level is low.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows an accumulation of outflows, with low selling pressure.
5. Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has slightly rebounded.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 26,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 29,000.
7. The probability of not breaking through 24,000–26,000 in the short term is 79%; the probability of not breaking through 32,000–34,000 in the short term is 65%.

• Market setting:

Market sentiment is neutral, with a slight decrease in positive sentiment compared to last week. Short-term orders have a higher probability of short-run fluctuations based on data, but this week we are more concerned about the impact of news.

Strategy suggestion: Spot dynamic hedging

Risk Warning:

The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment. Please be cautious and prevent market Black Swan risks.

This report is provided by the “WTR” Research Institute.

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