Ethereum vs Bitcoin: which is a better buy in July 2024?
Time to buy the dip in crypto markets
The top two cryptos — Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) — have pulled back in July 2024.
BTC is down 23% and ETH is down 25%.
This pullback is a buy-the-dip opportunity for investors who missed the first part of the crypto bull market. My research suggests cryptocurrencies will surge to new highs in 2024.
Bitcoin price prediction: $150,000
Back in late 2023, I laid a bull case why BTC will hit $150,000 this cycle. Bitcoin was $27,000 when I first shared it. The price has more than doubled since.
The core of my thesis was the bitcoin halving cycle.
BTC has historically followed a predictable pattern before, around, and after each bitcoin halving.
The fourth bitcoin halving was on April 19.
Leading up to the date, I wrote a lot about it in my investing letter The Jolt.
Why?
Because this preprogrammed event — which automatically cuts the new supply of bitcoins in half — has created a predictable upcycle every time it’s happened.
Crypto prices tend to bottom 12–18 months before bitcoin undergoes a halving. They then rally into the halving… then rally harder in the year following the halving.
BTC jumped 8,000% after the first halving… almost 30X in the year following the second one… and it handed out 6X gains after the most recent halving four years ago.
Bitcoin is right on script for this cycle. Prices bottomed 17 months before the halving and have now jumped 300% off the lows.
BTC price typically takes a breather at this point in the bitcoin cycle.
This lines up with how the bitcoin halving cycle usually unfolds. After each halving, there’s a period of accumulation before the big move higher:
What about Mt Gox repayments and German government selling bitcoin?
There’s been some negative news surrounding bitcoin lately.
Germany confiscated 46,000 BTC from illegal activities, or around $3 billion worth at today’s prices, and is now selling them. It’s safe to assume they will continue doing so for weeks if not months.
Moreover, victims of the Mt Gox hack will receive some of the stolen bitcoin back. The repayments of 140,000 BTC will start in July.
While Mt Gox and German government are bad for BTC price, strong demand from bitcoin ETFs has more than offset the selling pressure so far. iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and other BTC ETFs have bought over $700 million of bitcoin in the last week alone.
The $150,000 BTC price target remains very much in play. That’s about a 3X upside from today’s prices (July 2024).
However, I don’t think bitcoin is the best way to profit from crypto in 2024.
The recent dip in Ethereum’s (ETH) price presents a golden opportunity for investors…
Especially with the anticipated launch of spot Ethereum ETFs.
When the first spot bitcoin (BTC) ETF launched in January, the price per bitcoin was about $46,500. In the following two months, the price jumped 50% to about $70,000.
Bitcoin’s pulled back some in the past month. But demand for the cryptocurrency clearly surged following the launch of spot ETFs. I expect ETH to follow a similar trajectory.
We can already see signs that the coming spot Ethereum ETFs are attracting significant investor interest.
Ethereum “whales” have been transferring large amounts to exchanges, likely in preparation for the ETF listings.
This is what we saw from large bitcoin holders right before the launch of spot ETFs. The whales positioned themselves to capitalize on the upcoming demand surge.
My Ethereum price prediction: ETFs push ETH toward — and ultimately beyond — $12,000. That’s a 4X upside potential from today’s prices (July 2024).
Bottom line: Ethereum is a slightly better buy than bitcoin.
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P.S: I’ll continue sharing some of my research on Medium.
For even mor insights and analysis, I invite you to subscribe to my investing letter The Jolt⚡.
I publish fresh research on cryptocurrencies and stocks every M/W/F.
— Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at RiskHedge
