Finally, A Foolproof Plan: Bitcoin to Reach $500,000 Because Models Said So — An In-Depth Analysis of Plan B’s Wild Predictions

WAGMI
Coinmonks
3 min readAug 10, 2023

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Ah, the world of cryptocurrency, where experts toss out wild predictions like candy on Halloween, and where Bitcoin’s next big value is as predictable as tomorrow’s weather. But wait, here comes a fresh twist! The enigmatic Plan B, an anonymous on-chain analyst, has graced us with a “mind-blowing” prediction. Get ready to cash in your life’s savings because this might just be the crystal ball we’ve all been waiting for.

Bitcoin To $500,000 By This Date? Here’s Why!

In a thrilling YouTube monologue that’s just as hard to pin down as Bitcoin’s next price jump, Plan B unveils his “insane new prediction” that a single Bitcoin could be worth anywhere from $100,000 to a cool million dollars in the next bull cycle. If you’re planning on buying a yacht with Bitcoin, this could be your chance!

So What’s the Plan, Plan B?

Our mystical soothsayer has laid out four, count ’em, FOUR, valuation models that he claims have over a 90% accuracy in predicting Bitcoin’s price. You heard right, 90%! If only weather forecasters were this good.

  1. Time Model: The most basic model, essentially saying that as more people adopt Bitcoin, its price will increase. Shocking, right?
  2. Stock-to-Flow Model: A little fancier, this model tracks how Bitcoin’s price increases with its scarcity. Think of it as the diamond of the crypto world.
  3. Difficulty Model: This one’s all about the network’s power. More power, higher price. Like turning up the volume on your future wealth.
  4. UTXO Model: It’s all about how Bitcoin gets distributed into more fragments. Basically, the more you chop it up, the more valuable it becomes. Who knew?

Plan B then takes these models and somehow combines them into a prediction that Bitcoin will be worth anywhere between $100,000 and $1 million. But hey, even if it’s wildly different, he assures us that none of us would be complaining about a six-figure Bitcoin. Well, he’s not wrong there!

Unpacking the Models

Plan B goes on to break down each of these models in detail, explaining how they have helped institutions like Fidelity, grayscale Vanek, and even himself in investment presentations. If you find some emotional reactions against the stock-to-flow model, don’t worry, it’s probably just personal. Who knew models could be so controversial?

He even adds a bit of nostalgia by mentioning an old chart from 2014 by a guy named trollolo.

Hash Rates, Power, and UTXOs — Oh My!

Plan B doesn’t stop there. He delves into mining specific chips, arbitrage relations, and how Bitcoin is good at balancing electricity grids. If you’re not lost by now, congratulations! You’re one step closer to understanding these models that didn’t fail at all.

The Final Verdict

So here it is, anons, the big takeaway. Bitcoin could reach anywhere between $100,000 and $1 million in the next Bull cycle. How good are these models, really? Well, Plan B confidently throws out R-squared values like 97 and 94, which is quite impressive if you ignore the fact that correlation is not causation.

Sure, factors like the SEC, inflation, and random events like wars and mining bans in China might have an impact on price, but those are just details. What’s important is the bigger structural factors, and this prediction has got them in spades.

The Exciting Prospect (or Not)

So, there you have it, Plan B’s official prediction. Exciting? Definitely. Reliable? I believe so. As always, the crypto market can be as unpredictable as a cat on catnip. But if Plan B’s prediction holds true, we’ll all be laughing all the way to the crypto bank.

In the end, maybe Plan B’s plan isn’t so insane. Or maybe it’s just another voice in the cacophony of crypto predictions. Either way, we’ll be here, popcorn in hand, watching to see how it all unfolds with all my Bitcoin.

Happy investing, and may your Bitcoins be ever in your favor! If you’ve got a minute or five, feel free to follow me WAGMI.

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WAGMI
Coinmonks

Macro stuff, investment thoughts, tech savi