First Mover Advantage? Maybe not: Why Google could still dominate the future of Web3

For all the thoughts and transformative innovations that have graced and shaped the Web3 landscape over the past decade, one central point continues to pique my interest and provoke my thoughts. This is none other than the concept of decentralisation upon which much of the Web3 infrastructure is based.

At the moment, decentralisation is generally conceived as the ability to be truly free, especially from the strangleholds of the government and the apron strings of large tech companies, namely Google, Microsoft, IBM, and the like.

While Web3, so far, has been able to push forward with this ideal, we are at a juncture where we seriously need to ask questions about the extent to which this ideal can be propagated without the involvement of the big tech firms, and at this point, Google in particular.

I must state at this point that I have no affiliation with Google other than being one of the numerous users of its product suite globally. On this note, I’ll proceed to say that I believe that Web3 will offer more solutions to real-world issues in the coming years, yet I believe that there will be centralised decentralisation, and Google could be pivotal for this notion to fully blossom.

The AI battle: Dominant ChatGPT and Google’s Bard Counterweight

Google has positioned itself as one of the foremost technology innovation companies on the planet for the better part of the past 30 years. This feat has been achieved through the constant push to deliver seamless solutions to enterprises and individuals. The company’s laissez-faire approach to individual usage of its solutions has further endeared it to the hearts of many. As an African, I must admit that Google has played a major role in my understanding and adoption of technology.

It came as a surprise then, in November 2022, when OpenAI announced the launch of its AI chat tool, ChatGPT. My surprise here has nothing to do with the announcement in itself, but with the fact that OpenAI got to the market with such a huge solution ahead of established tech brands like Google and Microsoft. It came as no surprise, then, that ChatGPT recorded over 100 million users in its first three months, setting the record for the fastest-growing user base within this period.

Belatedly, Google, the king of all search engines, launched its own chat AI tool called Bard in March 2023. However, Bard has yet to capture the attention of users like its alternative, ChatGPT, has so far. Nonetheless, Google projects that Bard will be used by 1 billion people worldwide.

While it is early to conclude that OpenAI has won in this aspect, it is worth mentioning that Microsoft has resorted to integrating ChatGPT into its systems. Notwithstanding, I must mention that you could sign-up on ChatGPT with your Google Mail, and there are hundreds of millions of Gmail users worldwide.

ERC 6551 and the multiple utilities of NFTs

For Web3, things begin to get really interesting when one considers the recent announcement for the proposed future multiple utility of NFTs. In this context, I am referring to the proposed ERC-6551 NFT standard.

Essentially, this NFT standard equips non-fungible tokens with multiple capabilities. ERC-6551 gives NFTs the ability to hold other digital assets and interact with applications. This includes the ability to serve as a wallet where coins, tokens, and other NFTs can be held. While I am not an expert on the technical details, you can read more about the ERC6651 proposal at the link here.

Simultaneously, the concept of soulbound NFTs strikes my mind. This concept, in itself, was introduced by Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin. The concept of SBA revolves around the creation of non-transferrable NFTs that are capable of holding and showcasing personal achievements and milestones, such as work history, certifications, awards, and more.

Yet again, the instances of soulbound NFTs and the proposed ERC-6551 NFT standard are meant to consolidate my thoughts in the latter parts of this piece.

Steps in Decentralised Custom Domains

Decentralised custom domains have been another step that Web3 has taken towards granting users control and freedom. This blockchain-based system allows individuals and organisations to register and manage their own custom domain names without relying on domain registrars.

As already known, traditional Domain Name Systems are the centralized entities that maintain domain registries. These entities have the power to grant or revoke domain ownership, and they can impose restrictions and fees for domain registration and management.

Decentralised custom domains eliminate the need for these authorities by leveraging blockchain technology. In this regard, blockchain-based systems, such as Ethereum or Namecoin, offer decentralised and tamper-resistant databases where domain ownership information can be stored.

Holistically, users can register their own domain names directly on the blockchain. The ownership records are stored in a decentralised manner, ensuring transparency, immutability, and censorship resistance. This allows individuals to have full control over their domain names, including the ability to transfer or sell them without relying on intermediaries.

Yet again, decentralised custom domain is just another piece in the puzzle I am making efforts to assemble.

The Google Advantage

I am of the opinion that, while Google might not be fully immersed in the ethos of Web3 for now, it has all the instruments, tools, and resources to make the leap when and if it decides to do so.

For one, Google is one of the tech companies that have shaped and reshaped what we know as technology today. Google practically created a system that showed other tech companies how to make money while offering product suites for free. To the best of my knowledge, Microsoft monetised all of its products until Google became a major threat to this model.

Today, Google offers valuable products such as Docs, Sheets, Chrome, Gmail, and Youtube, to users without charging a cent (though there are premium versions for enterprises). Each of these free tools has helped Google attract and accumulate billions of users worldwide. Today, there are 1.8 billion Gmail users globally. This is even more remarkable knowing that the number was around 900 million in 2016. Chrome currently has 2.56 billion users, Google Search has a 92% market share, and Youtube boasts over 2 billion monthly active users worldwide.

It is evident that Google has established itself as a dominant force in the global tech landscape. On this note, one could begin to wonder what Web3 would be like if a company like Google decided to venture into it full-time.

Here is my thought, the first mover advantage that has so far been the determining factor across several industries might not be useful in this case. This is coupled with the fact that Google has made the use of its product ridiculously easy for first-timers. On this, we must applaud Google for its continued educational foray, especially through its many free courses.

At present, many people still find Web3 confusing. This is the case, as many believe that Web3 is synonymous with cryptocurrency. I will not rule out then, that Google’s foray into Web3 could create easy modules for people who are open to adoption. This goes without saying that Google’s switch to Web3 alone will drive billions into the space globally. Here is the obvious one, with more than 4.2 billion people using its products globally, moving into Web3 will immediately be a success for Google.

Underpinning all of the above could be a tool that Google already has in its hands — Gmail. So, here is it — what if Gmail becomes Google’s replica of the ERC-6551? The single NFT we all have which has the capacity to hold our digital assets and other non-transferable soulbound tokens. What if Gmail becomes the single tool we need to own our custom domain?

While I do not know the future and do not have an insight into the inner workings of Google, I am convinced that serving over 4 billion people globally is enough evidence that Google needs no first-mover advantage if it decides to venture into Web3. If this happens, it could exist in a manner where people enjoy decentralisation (decentralised services) under the control of a centralised entity.

Nonetheless, why the rush to change things? Especially if you are a company like Google that has built the bedrock of Web2, established itself, and is immensely reaping the rewards of a free, yet centralised system.