Being wrong is a part of a trader’s life. I admit I was wrong. Well, not totally wrong but got a couple of details here and there pretty upside down. Read more so you can learn on my mistakes.
Why you were so quiet lately?
Ok, some ask me in DM why I do not post updates on my macro trading views.
First of all I was wrong and it hurts when you are wrong. Moreover it takes time to recover, cool off and regain a clean and non emotional look at a price action.
My readers do remember that in the previous edition of Crappy Trader Notes I was predicting a sort of a triangle pattern to play out but it turned out that i was wrong. It wasn’t a triangle.
The truth be told I was really surprised with the March/April volume and price action so I couldn’t make anything more or less clear out of it.
So i did what every trader does when she is not clear of what is going on and looses a sense of control and understanding— i stayed at the sidelines watching.
Did your bearish macro view change?
No. It did not.
My macro working hypothesis, that since April 2021 we are experiencing a natural correction after intense wave-3 up move (from 3k BTCUSD level in March 2020 up to 64k BTCUSD level in April 2021) still holds. We are within correction and it may take a couple of weeks more to complete.
My another working hypothesis that we are approaching the true bottom of the correction still holds true.
So what is going on?
Let’s start with some observations.
Observation #1 — we are still experiencing high price action volatility. We are operating at +65k weekly BTC units bought/sold with long price bars. This is a sign that a true bottom is yet to be found. I would expect decreasing volatility as a sign that we are entering the final springboard before the actual end of correction and move up. Seeing couple of weeks of ~40–50k weekly BTC units bought/sold with very narrow price action might be a sign that supply is really drying out and we may expect a prolonged move up.
Observation #2 — seems like the wave C of the correction is unveiling in pretty interesting way. Although I noticed multiple interesting wave counts among my fellow traders I prefer a as simple as possible wave count. So i stick to the interpretation that we are now in the extended wave-3 of the final wave-C.
Here is the aforementioned count:
If this count holds true then we may use fibonacci for calculation of a potential down move
This gives us initial 29k BTCUSD price level but also it indicates that even 16k BTC USD level may be reached when a massive double top structure at 29-32k is heavily broken.
Observation #3 — i use a 3 point point & figure chart for BTC USD price action. Using this technique we get either 18k BTC USD level or 64k BTC USD level from the current, massive trading range that formed at the end of January 2022.
My loyal readers will recall that among multiple bottom scenarios I placed the so called extended flat scenario as most probable. Due to the reasoning explained above I still assign the highest probability to this scenario so I would expect sub 30k levels in a couple of weeks.
Unfortunately I decrease the probability of more “bullish” bottom scenarios that I was taking into consideration (such as “running flat” as described in previous issues of the magazine).
I even dare to say that the most bloody and bearish “double top” scenario might take place. If this is indeed the case that we may experience some extreme wick touching sub 20k levels at the culmination of the down move.
So as always, stay safe & liquid.
Great buy opportunities are just around the corner.
If you want to see how did i come to current predictions i recommend reading previous chapters of the blog. Therefore you can follow my reasoning and see how genuine my remarks are.
- Early Mar 2022 failed triangle diagnosis — The Scent of The Bottom @ Crappy Trader Notes #9
- Late Feb 2022 elaboration of most possible bottom scenarios — Bottom Is In Scenarios @ Crappy Trader Notes #8
- Feb 2022 rally debunked — Next station 30k BTCUSD @ Crappy Trader Notes #7
- Jan 2022 bearish scenario explained — BTCUSD Bears Are In Control @ Crappy Trader Notes #6
- Late Dec 2021 strong confirmation of the wave C scenario — BTC Wave C Zoom In @ Crappy Trader Notes #5
- Early Dec 2021 early warning of a possible down turn — BTC Wave C storm is coming? @ CrappyTrader Notes #4
- Late Nov 2021 gloomy outlook on possible bearish scenario — Are we in a C wave? @ CrappyTrader Notes #3
- Nov 2021 having two alternatives on November price movement — A BTC breakout or bull trap? @ CrappyTrader Notes #2
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