Is Bitcoin dead? A Market Analysis
Introduction
In these turbulent days, many people look for me and ask if Bitcoin is dead. Is it possible a single man destroys Bitcoin? No, it is impossible, because Bitcoin has not a leader and will never have.
Up to date, Pi Cycle is the only indicator to match the end of this bull run [1]. On the other hand, famous indicators as MVRV, Reserve Risk, 2-year Moving Average Multiplier, Puell Multiple, Logarithmic Growth Curves, Stock to Flow and S2Fx of the great Plan B, Golden Ratio, rHODL, and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss did not reach the top and, humbly, my indicators Bitcoin LineUp and Bitcoin Waves point to market manipulation, just it.
With this, the present study proposes to investigate the potentiality and the possible bull run continuity implicit and explicitly disclosed by three downtrend lines observation and finally the projection of Bitcoin LineUp and Bitcoin Waves.
The three downtrend lines
Bitcoin has three big challenges to overcome and to confirm the continuity of this bull run. The first one is the Market Cap BTC Dominance (Figure 1).
The first important information from Figure 1 is that Bitcoin Dominance overcame the purple downtrend line. If the dominance follows the red line, probably Bitcoin dives on the bear market. But, if the dominance follows the blue line or similar, Bitcoin will still alive.
Now, Bitcoin has two big downtrend lines to overcome: on the Bitcoin price (Figure 2) and on the Relative Strength Index, RSI, (Figure 3).
In my opinion, this is a small dispute for this great technology that challenges the state and the elite. HODL!
Bitcoin LineUp
Based on the Bitcoin LineUp indicator [2], the derivative test was used to locate the critical points of the bitcoin price function. The Second-derivative test can help to find the best time to sell, as can be observed in Figure 4.
If the Bitcoin LineUp indicator is less than -0.2, it is the best moment to sell, 2nd derivative is very negative. In fact, the indicator is far from the end.
Bitcoin Waves
The Bitcoin Waves model projects the possibility of a macrocycle after all (Figure 5). The model is adjusted using the growth rate of Bitcoin price, the number of bitcoin transactions per day, and the average time to mine a block in minutes.
Finally, according to the model, if the macrocycle is confirmed by overcoming the three downline trends, the predicted price points to a max price between $81,600 and $190,500. This is not financial advice.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is still alive.
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Acknowledgments
The author is grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto, Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, Changpeng Zhao, Sabrina Moraes, Fernando Ulrich, André Fauth, Criptomaníacos, and Vela Trader.
References
3. https://medium.com/coinmonks/bitcoin-waves-a-linear-combination-for-price-modeling-2b89f72e552d
