Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Market 8/13
Today I want to go a bit macro to help people realize some specific issues in the market. This will be both TA and also news.
One, on the news front. Ask yourself when and why people support Tornado Cash and claim it’s just a tool. Apparently funding North Korea is a public good?
This is why we’re in a bear market, where did NK get these funds from? Why do people say that crypto is just “full of hacks” and is what it is, and etc etc? Maybe someone should start asking why we’re told crypto is 100% okay despite North Korea profiting more than any of us individually. Reminder: North Korea being able to operate as any other country is quite literally the whole crypto decentralization/crypto avoiding sanctions/crypto being controlled by the “people”. Nobody says which people.
Anyway, onto TA. What I want to point out below, is the volume trend at a macro level, and where volume is the highest and which volume is the highest. A lot of this tracks to the greater moves in the trend, but there are some distinct differences this time around, which represent new people coming into crypto — which are institutions.
Now that institutions have a variety of their own dark pools, they are using them. See: coinbase for an example, even though the answer is “how much are they using them?” and the answer may be not many companies.
So the first volume trend tracked here is the extremely high volume during the crash and accumulation run up from covid. Notice where the volume trend dies off (and reverse) and also note that the highest volume is at the absolute bottom. This is good, for a bull market. It means people were liquidated/stoplossed down to the bottom, but may get back in.
Notice how volume completely dropped off on the second top of the market? Yeah. That’s…where you can see there was no real second bull market that happened after May. You can see however, that the real sell off happened after. That means the bull market was extended, and thus so will be the bear market.
Now let’s zoom in a bit, and look at what’s going on recently, and point out an issue. This is a phenomenon I call death spiral. Where people are bagholding and bagholding, on the believe things have to go up. Crypto in a lot of ways is following the stock market for their favor, but it’s running out of gas quite a bit. Notice that the highest volume day was a *very* strong rejection of a top for the channel, meaning some idiots fat fingered a buy and sellers responded in turn? No. This is liquidity leaving. Notice how the buys are not equivalent to the sells down here, at all. We’re at volume levels last seen at 40k, but at 25k. That’s a big problem, yall. How do we sell all that 40k worth of volume down to exit when we’re that much lower?
Answer: we don’t. Not without slippage and drops.
Weekend bullishness attempts on low volume are not going to end well on this, plus there’s the 24.2k CME pricing.
So while traditional ichi can be a breakout here, I want to remind people to look at the right chart:
So when people scream bullish today, look at when and why we aren’t. We can go up, but there’s not much to do it with. At some point, we will go much lower.
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