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SVET Markets Weekly Update (October 3, 2022)

  • Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI for September;
  • Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings for August;
  • Wednesday: Balance of Trade for August;
  • Friday: Unemployment Rate for September.
  • The first time it happened during the second term of the Harry Truman administration. This period is also called ‘1949 recession’ or ‘post-war recession’ in a literature for economists see its major causes in the WW2 war-machine slowing down as less tanks and gun-meats had been consumed by victorious govs.
  • The second time when ISM almost hit the 30 bar happened at January 1975 on the aftermath of the Franklin National Bank collapse. Although ISM is supposed to be the leading indicator, 47 years ago it marked the end of the 1973–1975 recession. Only a year after this, in January 1976, ISM rose back to 60+.
  • May 1980 marked a single time in the ISM history when it fell below 30. It was the pick of the so-called Volcker Recession. By April 1980 FED rate, pumped by ‘crazy Paul’, hit 17.5 percent. Accordingly, unemployment reached 7.8 percent and GDP was reduced by 2.2 percent.

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