SVET Mondays Update
My yesterday’s assessment proved to be correct, generally speaking.
However, I was too conservative in my estimations of the current bearish momentum power. I expected that, without clear catalysts, bulls and bears would play their usual tag games, waiting for the FED’s rate announcement, until a mid-week. However, it looks like after BTC hit the 27.8–28.3 ceiling zone at about New York’s lunch-time, the following correctional move brought us too close to the crucial 27k resistance line, I mentioned in the previous post.
It took a couple of hours for East Cost amateurs to pound through this safe-barrier, before Chinese traders woke up and deal a decisive blow. As a result, we found ourselves on 25.4k rear defense line after four red hourly candlesticks only.
Then, Hong Kong’s players got back from a lunch-break (where they, apparently, pre-meditated the USA Monday’s red opening) and decided to downgrade HSI to 21,000 (from 21,200) before the end of their trading session.
Simultaneously, they (or their spouses:) off-loaded record amounts of BTC, bringing it to the 22.7k first doomsday target, touching the 200-weeks moving average — the third time in the recorded crypto-history. So, when New Your professionals get on-line there were not too much USD left to squeeze from a few still standing, brutally vandalized bulls.
The Eats Cost’s following attempt to organize the ‘relief-rally’ (hoping to harvest bears nearest stop-losses) was dismissed above 24k. Now, the question is — after the news about this night’s carnage was related to American amateurs would it be enough to jump-start the next massive panic-sale engine, which might drive BTC into the 12k-9k zone and, consequently, cause the capitulation event.
After USA market-makers sorted through the nights’ orders during the first two trading hours, volumes got down pretty drastically, which almost always happens after such emotionally devastating for tourists bear-feasts.
So far there have been not new big sellers coming to the markets but it only means that those players are now frantically reassessing their open positions and trying to decide for how much to cut their exposure to risk assets. It means that we will see more big red candles growing on our charts in the not-so-distant future.
Not to forget, of course, that some outlandish public personages (which pledged their allegiance to our Cause and then committed billions of borrowed capitals to BTC almost on its historical tops about a year ago) might start now to feel what it really takes to be on the right side of the history but on the wrong side of the political spectrum (I do not even need to mention those hideous margin calls, waiting those personages somewhere below 20k threshold).
So, stay close to your devices, or you might miss such a horror show, which will make your grand-children cringe in envy.