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The bear market is where players make life-changing decisions

Bear markets and bearish trends present significant opportunities. In this article, we speculate on the possible future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, CAPITAL AT RISK.

Simple, Stupid TA
  • The macro landscape looks beatdown, with tech stocks acting like altcoins, seeing up to 90% drawdowns in record time.
  • The stock market may pull BTC down, though it is surprisingly holding its own currently while altcoins lose major support levels.
  • This phenomenon may suggest a big move could happen in days or weeks, possibly to the downside.
  • The “sell in May and go away” (SIMAGA) phenomenon happened in 2021, and the market experienced extreme fear as BTC dipped below $30k.
  • SIMAGA coincided with forming a “head & shoulders” pattern that preceded the roughly $30k price point.
  • A similar SIMAGA may be playing out, as illustrated in the image above with white curly lines.
  • The green trend line shows a ray of hope where BTC could bounce and continue an uptrend, though the probability is slim because of the macro situation — Fed tapering, the war in Ukraine and regulation.
  • Many market participants expect a move towards the $35k region denoted by the blue rectangle and have undoubtedly placed buy orders in that region.
  • Notwithstanding, the market does what it wants, catching most participants off-guard.
  • A move below $35k will see the market testing the 2021 summer lows of about $30k.
  • This move will be a capitulation event, although it is not impossible to dip below this and test the previous cycle highs of around $20k.

Projects on my Radar

If you follow me on Twitter, you may have come across tweets of various projects that could speculatively see success in the long term. These are:

Secret Network

  • If the market revisits its previous 2021 summer lows, one could bag this coin in the $1 to $2 region.
  • With a total supply of 190.2 million, a fully diluted market cap could see this project reach three figures.
  • A move to $1 or below would be a gift from God, especially if the project saw success and its token reached $100 in the long term.
  • In case you missed it, here’s the link to the article covering this L1 blockchain project: Missed a 50x on AVAX? You have a second chance with this project.
  • I’ve been slowly dollar-cost averaging into this project even as it loses support levels — dangerous stuff, but fortune favours the bold.

Oasis Protocol

  • This L1 project is another project with a stellar team and backing from top tier VC firms such as a16z.
  • I’ve yet to write an article about this project, but I’ve tweeted significantly about it.
  • This cycle previous high is around $0.59, but I’m hopeful it can reach a $2 target.
  • The project hasn’t made a ridiculous percentage move like most other projects yet and could still see multiples in market cap when bullishness returns.
  • I think I’m relatively early in this one, unlike Secret Network, which was $0.25 at some point.
  • If its price returns to 2021 summer lows, you know what I’ll be doing.

Mina Protocol

  • Mina Protocol is an L1 project supported by major VC firms, and it recently did further fundraising of $92 million, which shows belief from its backers.
  • Like Oasis Protocol and Secret Network, the blockchain privacy narrative could cause significant demand for this project, with its Zero-Knowledge proof technology.
  • I do not own any tokens yet, and if the market returns to the previous summer lows, it could dip to the $1 region.
  • Like Oasis Protocol, it hasn’t done many multiples yet, and there could be significant gas left in the tank.

Acala Network

  • This Polkadot L1 project is new and seeks to be the DeFi hub on the Polkadot ecosystem.
  • It has its stablecoin called aUSD, which it plans to integrate into DApps and DeFi markets.
  • The project has backing from prominent VC firms, including Coinbase Ventures, and I won’t be surprised if it gets listed on Coinbase and Coinbase Pro.
  • This project is one I’m seriously keeping an eye on.


  • The crypto market is unregulated, and with every story about making life-changing money, there are other stories about losing life-changing money.
  • All the projects mentioned above are highly speculative and may not fulfil their potential.
  • Practice meticulous risk management, and avoid FOMO and greed.
  • Write it off as lost or in a casino whenever you put money into the market.
  • If you allocate money to a casino, make sure it’s an amount that allows you to sleep well at night.

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Kel The Observer

sci-fi writer & crypto enthusiast. Follow me on Twitter @observer_kel