Apr 30, 2022
5 min read
The bear market is where players make life-changing decisions
Bear markets and bearish trends present significant opportunities. In this article, we speculate on the possible future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, CAPITAL AT RISK.
- The macro landscape looks beatdown, with tech stocks acting like altcoins, seeing up to 90% drawdowns in record time.
- The stock market may pull BTC down, though it is surprisingly holding its own currently while altcoins lose major support levels.
- This phenomenon may suggest a big move could happen in days or weeks, possibly to the downside.
- The “sell in May and go away” (SIMAGA) phenomenon happened in 2021, and the market experienced extreme fear as BTC dipped below $30k.
- SIMAGA coincided with forming a “head & shoulders” pattern that preceded the roughly $30k price point.
- A similar SIMAGA may be playing out, as illustrated in the image above with white curly lines.
- The green trend line shows a ray of hope where BTC could bounce and continue an uptrend, though the probability is slim because of the macro situation — Fed tapering, the war in Ukraine and regulation.
- Many market participants expect a move towards the $35k region denoted by the blue rectangle and have undoubtedly placed buy orders in that region.
- Notwithstanding, the market does what it wants, catching most participants off-guard.
- A move below $35k will see the market testing the 2021 summer lows of about $30k.
- This move will be a capitulation event, although it is not impossible to dip below this and test the previous cycle highs of around $20k.
Projects on my Radar
If you follow me on Twitter, you may have come across tweets of various projects that could speculatively see success in the long term. These are:
Secret Network
- If the market revisits its previous 2021 summer lows, one could bag this coin in the $1 to $2 region.
- With a total supply of 190.2 million, a fully diluted market cap could see this project reach three figures.
- A move to $1 or below would be a gift from God, especially if the project saw success and its token reached $100 in the long term.
- In case you missed it, here’s the link to the article covering this L1 blockchain project: Missed a 50x on AVAX? You have a second chance with this project.
- I’ve been slowly dollar-cost averaging into this project even as it loses support levels — dangerous stuff, but fortune favours the bold.
Oasis Protocol
- This L1 project is another project with a stellar team and backing from top tier VC firms such as a16z.
- I’ve yet to write an article about this project, but I’ve tweeted significantly about it.
- This cycle previous high is around $0.59, but I’m hopeful it can reach a $2 target.
- The project hasn’t made a ridiculous percentage move like most other projects yet and could still see multiples in market cap when bullishness returns.
- I think I’m relatively early in this one, unlike Secret Network, which was $0.25 at some point.
- If its price returns to 2021 summer lows, you know what I’ll be doing.
Mina Protocol
- Mina Protocol is an L1 project supported by major VC firms, and it recently did further fundraising of $92 million, which shows belief from its backers.
- Like Oasis Protocol and Secret Network, the blockchain privacy narrative could cause significant demand for this project, with its Zero-Knowledge proof technology.
- I do not own any tokens yet, and if the market returns to the previous summer lows, it could dip to the $1 region.
- Like Oasis Protocol, it hasn’t done many multiples yet, and there could be significant gas left in the tank.
Acala Network
- This Polkadot L1 project is new and seeks to be the DeFi hub on the Polkadot ecosystem.
- It has its stablecoin called aUSD, which it plans to integrate into DApps and DeFi markets.
- The project has backing from prominent VC firms, including Coinbase Ventures, and I won’t be surprised if it gets listed on Coinbase and Coinbase Pro.
- This project is one I’m seriously keeping an eye on.
Warning
- The crypto market is unregulated, and with every story about making life-changing money, there are other stories about losing life-changing money.
- All the projects mentioned above are highly speculative and may not fulfil their potential.
- Practice meticulous risk management, and avoid FOMO and greed.
- Write it off as lost or in a casino whenever you put money into the market.
- If you allocate money to a casino, make sure it’s an amount that allows you to sleep well at night.
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