Published in


The Equity Bubble Bursts


  • Regime: The equity bubble has popped
  • Macro: Real rates rise yet price holds
  • Valuation: Fair value
  • Flows and Sentiment: Bullish
  • Technical: Base building


  1. Short-term real interest rates are below 1.8%. TRUE
  2. The gold price, measured in a basket of currencies, is rising, measured by a 35-month exponential moving average. TRUE
  3. The gold price relative to the S&P 500, measured by a 35-month exponential. FORECAST FOR 2022.

Gold’s turn

Source: Bloomberg. As described since 1/10/2018.


Source: FINRA. Number of bonds rising versus falling since 2007.
Source: FINRA. Change in margin debt since 1960.
Source: Bloomberg, BTAM


Gold still in the fair value range

Source: Bloomberg. Morris gold fair value methodologies and gold past three years. To see this model, please visit ByteTree Terminal where it is updated daily.
Source: Minack Advisers

No one is speculating on gold anymore

Source: Bloomberg. Leveraged gold ETFS long less short assets $000s since 2012.


Join Coinmonks Telegram Channel and Youtube Channel learn about crypto trading and investing

Also, Read



Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store

Applied data for digital asset investors. ByteTree provides real-time data, fundamentals, technical and deep blockchain market analysis for Bitcoin, and more.