Part I. The Parabolic Supertrend in Bitcoin — An assessment

I thank Parabolic Trav for sharing his analysis with me and for being generous with his time in discussing his thoughts on Bitcoin.

The Chart that Launched a Thousand Dreams

The purpose of this short note is to analyze a possible basis for the long-term growth pattern — the supertrend — exhibited by Bitcoin, as shown by the chart shared with me by Parabolic Trav, and shown as Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: The view according to Parabolic Trav

In the figure, Parabolic Trav shows three distinct cycles drawn from the beginning of the dataset in late 2010, and projected into the future. Each cycle comprises a convex upwards section illustrated in blue; a period of stasis marked in yellow, and a period of decline shown in red. The figure also shows approximations of the positive gradients for each of the convex sections with blue lines, and a set of approximate negative gradients for the sections in red with red lines.

In what follows, I wish to unpack the insights that Parabolic Trav had in mind when he constructed this figure for Bitcoin’s supertrend.

Parabolic Trav, for those who may not have come across his Twitter presence, is the leading proponent of parabolic growth theory for Bitcoin, and his views stand in stark contrast with the bulk of analysts in the Twitter…