Throw Away the Keys — Gnosis Safe Fundamental Analysis

Justmy2Satoshis
Coinmonks
23 min readJul 1, 2024

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The blockchain represents a state-of-the-art vault with multiple layers of security protocols. Each transaction or entry into this vault is heavily encrypted and verified by numerous participants (nodes) in the network. This ensures that only authorized individuals (holders of private keys) can access or transfer assets.

Unlike traditional bank vaults where only a few trusted individuals have access and visibility, the blockchain vault is transparent to all participants. Every transaction or movement of assets is recorded on a public ledger (like security cameras in a real vault), allowing anyone to track and verify the history and ownership of assets.

Rather than relying on a single entity (like a bank or security company), the blockchain vault operates on a decentralized network of computers. This means there’s no central point of failure; the security and integrity of the vault are maintained collectively by a large network of independent participants.

The ledger of transactions (like an inventory log in a vault) is immutable. Once a transaction is recorded on the blockchain, it cannot be altered or deleted. This adds an extra layer of security and trust, ensuring that the history of asset ownership is reliable and tamper-proof.

The first, and most important, tenet we emphasize to CCI members is that asset security is a non-negotiable to get right before all else.

You can trade your account balance to unfathomable heights, but it means very little if one mistake can lead to it all being taken from you.

We are all responsible for securing our private keys from sticky fingers that would look to drain our public address. This model is ubiquitous across all blockchains, no matter if it’s Bitcoin, Ethereum, Avalanche, Solana, or Injective — you are responsible for securing your seed phrases that activate your private keys to execute transactions with your assets.

However as technology, and the sophistication of scammers, continues to evolve there are constant threats to the safety and security of our assets:

  • Phishing Scams: These involve fraudulent websites or emails that mimic legitimate cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets. Users are tricked into entering their login credentials or private keys, which are then stolen by the scammers.
  • Fake ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings): Scammers create fake ICOs to attract investments for non-existent or worthless cryptocurrencies. Once funds are raised, the scammers disappear with the money.
  • Ponzi Schemes: Similar to traditional Ponzi schemes, crypto-based Ponzi schemes promise high returns to initial investors using money from new investors. These schemes eventually collapse when new investments dry up, leaving investors with losses.
  • Fake Exchanges and Wallets: Scammers create fake cryptocurrency exchange websites or wallets that look legitimate but are designed to steal users’ funds. They may encourage users to deposit funds and then disappear with the deposits.
  • Malware and Ransomware: Malicious software can be used to steal cryptocurrency from users’ computers or hold their devices ransom until a payment is made in cryptocurrency.
  • Social Engineering: Scammers use social engineering tactics such as impersonation or fake customer support to trick users into sending their cryptocurrency to the wrong address.
  • SIM Swapping: Scammers gain control of a victim’s phone number by convincing the phone carrier to transfer the number to a SIM card under their control. They then use this to reset passwords and gain access to cryptocurrency wallets.
  • Impersonation of Influential Figures: Scammers impersonate well-known figures in the cryptocurrency space (like Elon Musk or Vitalik Buterin) on social media to promote fake giveaways or investment schemes.

In light of the above, it is clear that asset security is no joke or something that we can be partial toward. While we have distributed countless ledgers to sophisticated investors at CCI, we invest within a space that is advancing at lightning speed and we need to be one step ahead.

In the spirit of this, this fundamental analysis will focus on SAFE, and to a lesser degree it’s ‘parent company’ Gnosis that are at the forefront of multi-signature technology. We will review the inner workings of this technology, how it has played a pivotal role in Account Abstraction which we have reviewed recently in the Loopring and Sui FAs. We will outline practical strategies to take asset security to the next level through the use of multi-signature vaults and discuss $SAFE and $GNO as investment opportunities.

This fundamental analysis was published April 2024, and is part of a weekly paid newsletter from the Crypto Consulting Institute as such trade insights are likely outdated. Crypto Consulting Institute provides exclusive market insights, actionable trade signals, and monthly fundamental analyses. For more information on receiving FAs as they are released, visit: https://www.cryptoconsultinginstitute.com/newsletter

Brief history of Gnosis

Established in 2015 under the umbrella of ConsenSys, a leading Ethereum software company, Gnosis emerged as one of the pioneering projects built on the Ethereum blockchain. The founding team, led by Martin Köppelmann and Stefan George, envisioned leveraging blockchain technology to create innovative decentralized applications.

In 2017, Gnosis transitioned into an independent entity following a successful funding round through an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) held in April. This ICO was notable for raising approximately $12.5 million in just 15 minutes, highlighting the significant interest and demand for the project at the time.

Initially, Gnosis focused on pioneering prediction markets — decentralized platforms that allowed users to speculate on the outcomes of future events. These prediction markets aimed to provide a more accurate and transparent way to aggregate information using blockchain technology.

As Gnosis evolved, it began to embrace broader ambitions. By 2020, the project shifted towards a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) structure, aiming to increase community involvement in project governance and decision-making.

In 2021, Gnosis made a strategic move by merging with xDai Chain, an Ethereum sidechain known for its low transaction fees and fast processing times. This merger led to the formation of the Gnosis Chain, a purpose-built platform addressing Ethereum’s scalability limitations. The Gnosis Chain offered a faster and more cost-effective environment for decentralized applications (dApps) to operate, further expanding Gnosis’s reach into the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

Meanwhile, Gnosis continued to innovate within its ecosystem. One notable development, and the focus of the current FA, was the spinoff of Gnosis Safe into a separate project named SAFE. Gnosis Safe, originally developed as a secure and user-friendly smart contract wallet solution, gained significant traction and evolved into its independent initiative focused on enhancing digital asset security and management.

In addition to its core offerings, Gnosis has actively supported the development of decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi protocols within its ecosystem. The project remains focused on driving forward the adoption and advancement of blockchain technology, emphasizing transparency, security, and community engagement as key pillars of its mission.

Looking ahead, Gnosis continues to explore new avenues for growth and innovation in financial infrastructure for payments, further solidifying its position as a leading player in the decentralized technology landscape.

Security aGNOstic

The motivation behind the spin-off of Gnosis Safe to SAFE appears in large part due to the growth and traction of SAFE Vaults that seemingly warrant its own ecosystem. The benefits to this approach is a greater degree of decentralization of the governance structure, while maintaining Gnosis DAOs involvement with governing the project.

By outsourcing governance to a new token, SAFE effectively addresses legitimate concerns that have been expressed whereby Gnosis largely maintained a monopoly on multi-signature tech stacks, and reduces GNO holders control of the protocol.

Over the years, SAFE has integrated onto over 14 blockchain networks and reportedly 2786 forks of the code to implement variations onto alternative networks and 211 projects that have integrated the multi-signatory tech stack into their products.

Traditional web3 accounts are typically managed by a single private key, often derived from 12–24 word seed phrases. As long as a user possesses this private key, they have control over the account. However, these private keys are frequently lost or compromised, leading to the irreversible loss of held assets.

In contrast, Safe utilizes smart contract accounts that can be customized to meet the custody requirements of various user groups:

  • Authentication using multiple private keys (multi-sig) or community control (DAOs)
  • Recovery and inheritance mechanisms
  • Enhanced transaction experience (transaction batching, gas abstraction)
  • Transaction verification and hybrid custody
  • Implementation of spending limits and automation

Safe’s approach offers advanced features and configurations beyond traditional web3 accounts, enhancing security and usability for managing digital assets.

Let’s take a quick look at Ethereum accounts or wallets to better understand how Safe operates. Ethereum primarily features two types of accounts: External Owned Accounts (EOAs) and contract accounts. EOAs are standard web3 wallets, such as MetaMask, which use public-private key pairs. These wallets enable users to access and manage their digital assets stored on blockchain networks. For instance, you can send BTC to another address or deploy a smart contract to mint a non-fungible token (NFT) using your MetaMask wallet.

In contrast, contract accounts or smart contracts do not possess private keys. Instead, they contain lines of code that execute predefined instructions when certain conditions are met. One effective application of contract accounts is the creation of multi-signature wallets using multiple keys. A typical multi-signature wallet involves three owners, each possessing their own key, and requires at least two approvals to authorize transactions.

These wallets offer flexibility for both businesses and individuals, enabling them to:

  • Safely manage funds: By requiring the consent of the majority to move funds, these wallets prevent any single individual from absconding with funds.
  • Execute sensitive transactions: Important business transactions are authenticated by a majority vote.
  • Achieve redundancy: If one key is lost, the safe remains accessible using the remaining keys.

Safe is an example of a smart contract utilizing multi-signature functionality. It operates as a deployed smart contract with a public address. Transaction signing is governed by customized logic tailored for specific use cases. Several keys are required to authorize transactions, and approval can be granted through hardware wallets, EOAs, or the Safe mobile app. Furthermore, Safe integrates directly with other applications, facilitating ease of use and interoperability.

Safe offers several key features:

  • Multi-signature Capability: Users have the flexibility to customize their fund management by specifying a required number of signatures to approve transactions. This feature ensures that assets cannot be controlled or accessed by unauthorized or minority parties.
  • Wide Asset Support: Safe currently supports a diverse range of assets, including ETH, ERC20 tokens, and ERC721 collectibles. Additionally, Safe provides the USD conversion rate for user-held assets.
  • Integration with Various Wallets: Transactions can be signed using hardware wallets, software wallets, or even paper wallets, providing users with multiple options for securely accessing and managing their assets.
  • Secure DeFi Applications: Safe enhances security in decentralized finance (DeFi) by offering multi-signature functionality, allowing users to actively engage with DeFi protocols directly from the Safe interface.

The comparison table below illustrates how Safe’s features stack up against other cryptocurrency storage solutions:

This table highlights the unique strengths of Safe in terms of multi-signature functionality, asset support, wallet compatibility, and DeFi security compared to other crypto storage solutions.

Undoubtedly the 4th best known ERC standard among CCI investors after ERC-20, ERC-721, and ERC-1155 is ERC-4337 which has been covered repeatedly through recent fundamental analyses such as Loopring and Sui.

Since we have built up knowledge through exposure on the subject, we will go a bit more granular on what it looks like in action. We revisit ERC-4337 as it tackles the obstacles linked with account abstraction while avoiding alterations to the consensus-layer protocol. It functions as a transaction intermediary for smart accounts such as Safe. This is achieved through the introduction of a pseudo-transaction entity known as a UserOperation, which executes a transaction on behalf of the user.

Within Ethereum, nodes have the ability to act as Bundlers, collecting multiple UserOperations and consolidating them into a single transaction termed a bundle transaction. These bundle transactions are subsequently transmitted to a singular global smart contract on Ethereum, referred to as the EntryPoint.

ERC-4337 aims to improve user experience through the introduction of paymasters. This decentralized feature enables users to cover gas fees using ERC-20 tokens (such as USDC) instead of relying on native tokens like ETH, or alternatively, to engage a third party to entirely cover their gas fees.

Note that ERC-4337 is still in development and subject to further revisions. Developers should stay updated on any new changes that may occur during the finalization process.

Compatibility with the ERC-4337 standard in Safe is facilitated through Safe Modules and the Fallback Handler. This implies that the functionality is not directly integrated into the Safe Smart Account itself, but rather into the Safe4337Module contract. This module can be activated within any Safe account either during Safe deployment or at a later time (in other words, contracts are upgradeable).

When the EntryPoint calls the validateUserOp function, the Safe Proxy contract forwards this call to the Safe4337Module. Within the module, the UserOperation undergoes validation to ensure that the Safe owner(s) have signed the UserOperation hash, and the validation result is returned. Additionally, the module performs a transaction to cover the fees accordingly.

Upon successful validation, the EntryPoint triggers the executeUserOp function, which is then forwarded to the module. The module proceeds to execute a transaction with the specified target and data from the UserOperation.

To ensure we are fully across the how multi-sig safes work, let’s try with an analogy to breakdown each component:

Imagine you and your friends want to plan a big party together, but you want to make sure everyone can participate smoothly without any one person taking over the planning. ERC-4337 acts like a party planner who helps manage the party arrangements without changing the main rules of how the party works.

  • Account Abstraction and UserOperations: ERC-4337 helps coordinate the party details (like sending out invitations) without needing to change how the party is organized fundamentally. It introduces a way to send party invites (UserOperations) that can represent actions taken on behalf of someone else (like RSVPing for a friend).
  • Bundling Transactions: Just like how party planners might collect RSVPs from many friends into one master list, blockchain nodes can bundle these party invites (UserOperations) into one big list (bundle transaction) to make organizing the party more efficient.
  • Paymasters for Gas Fees: ERC-4337 also introduces the concept of “paymasters,” which is like having different ways to pay for party costs. Instead of everyone having to pay with the same type of currency (like everyone bringing ETH), paymasters let friends use different types of tokens (like bringing different types of gift cards) or even ask someone else to cover their costs entirely.
  • Safe Modules and Fallback Handler: For hosting the party, each friend can customize their role or responsibilities (like who handles music or decorations) without changing the main party venue. Similarly, Safe Modules are like customizable roles within the party setup (Smart Account), which can be activated later to help manage specific party tasks.
  • Validation and Execution of Party Plans: When making party plans (like deciding on activities), the party planner (EntryPoint) checks if everything is set up correctly (validateUserOp). If approved, the plans are executed (executeUserOp) smoothly, ensuring that the party runs as planned.

Overall, Safe aims to make party planning (transactions on EVM compatible networks) more flexible and user-friendly, allowing friends (users) to contribute and participate in the party (network activities) using different methods and roles, all while keeping the main party rules intact.

Don’t GNOck it until it you try it

With the technical explanation out of the way, see below for a simple walkthrough on how to set up a SAFE, and from there we will outline possible strategies to enhance our own personal security protocols.

Step 1: Create Your Safe

Creating a Safe wallet takes about 1 minute. You can do this by visiting the web app at https://safe.global

Step 2: Connect a Signer Wallet

To create your Safe, you’ll need to link a signer wallet such as MetaMask, Coinbase, Trust Wallet, Ledger, Trezor, etc. Make sure you have some native tokens like ETH (for Ethereum network) to cover the transaction fees associated with deploying your Safe.

After connecting your wallet, click on “Create New Safe” and give it a name.

Step 3: Choose Your Signers

Select the wallets that are allowed to submit and approve transactions (you can modify these later). Note that the wallet you connected in Step 2 will be the first signer by default, but you can change this if needed.

Add as many signers as you prefer by entering their addresses or typing their ENS names.

Step 4: Set Confirmation Threshold

Decide how many signer confirmations are required to execute a transaction. If you’re an individual user, make sure you have enough signers available to meet this threshold, otherwise you won’t be able to access your funds.

Step 5: Review and Deploy

Before finalizing, carefully review all your settings and parameters. Once you’re ready, click “Create” to deploy your Safe wallet.

Once set up, I would suggest writing down the public key of the vault, the wallet addresses you have authorized as signatories, and bookmarking your vault page on your browser.

Compartmentalize Risk

How each investor wishes to approach securing their assets are often contingent upon their individual risk profiles and how they allocate into assets, as well as the timeframe for investing.

At CCI, we have previously urged investors to compartmentalize their risks by considering the following:

  • Long term holdings: Majority of assets invested on a long-term timeframe should be held on your Ledger, Trezor, or other. For long term holdings, you should only be sending and receiving assets, no minting NFTs or interacting with smart contracts ever. It should not connect to any website.
  • Medium-term/DeFi wallet: Either create a new public address through your hardware wallet, or use a separate hardware wallet with different seed phrases that is intended to utilize assets in the mid-term by interacting with smart contracts on trusted DeFi protocols. This wallet should only interact with trusted and battle-tested protocols as smart contract exploits are not zero probability.
  • Short-term/Degen wallets: Create a hot wallet through a wallet provider (Metamask, Phantom, Kepler, etc), safely store seed phrases (never enter seed phrases into a digital form after setting up the first time on a device), and utilize assets to participate in minting NFTs and interacting with new (untested) protocols. The amount of assets on this wallet should not contain more than what you can afford to lose. If you happen to sign a malicious smart contract or get scammed, then the majority of your assets remain safe on long and mid term holding wallets. Remember, you can always visit https://revoke.cash to revoke permissions given to smart contracts.
  • Storage of seed phrases: safe, metal backup devices, store fragments in multiple locations, avoid storing digitally, or memorize them.

From an investor safety perspective, the implications of a multi-sig has the greatest utility for long-term holdings. When setting up your safe, or after it has set up, you can specify the minimum number of public-private key pairs that are required to authorize transactions. You can also modify authorized public-private keys if the minimum authorization threshold is met to add or remove signatories.

In addition, medium-term/DeFi holdings can be utilized through SAFE integrations into trusted DeFi protocols.

The clear benefit to using a multi-signature safe to secure assets is that there are no seed phrases required to directly access the vault as there is for a standard wallet. It is not possible to brute force hack a vault without compromising the majority of public-private keys required to authorize transactions. These mechanics form the basis of Account Abstraction covered in previous FAs where Social Recovery is possible through the use of Guardians, who are authorized to recover an account when access is lost.

Please note that executing transactions through SAFE does not make us immune from scams and smart contract risks of the protocols we interact with. What SAFE does accomplish is that no one set of seed phrases being lost or compromised will lead to loss of assets in the vault unless a hacker were to obtain the private keys for the majority of authorized users.

GNO-one lives forever

In 2018, when Gerald Cotten, the owner of Canada’s largest cryptocurrency exchange at the time, passed away, over $250 million of his customers’ assets became inaccessible. Cotten was believed to be the sole holder of the private keys necessary to access these funds, rendering them irretrievable. Due to the decentralized nature of blockchain technology, there is no central authority capable of locating these assets or returning them to their rightful owners.

An unavoidable challenge we face in the pursuit of wealth in cryptocurrencies is how to pass our assets on to next of kin.

Often an executor of an estate, or lawyer, will be retained for the purpose of storing sensitive information such as seed phrases to be distributed upon death.

One strategy to deal with this enabled by multi-sig may be to generate and store seed phrases for next of kin to receive following settlement of the estate, register those wallets as signatories on the vault, and utilize a trusted third party such as an executor/spouse/close friend to hold onto another set of seed phrases to meet a minimum threshold to approve transactions. It is ideal to not have all our eggs in one basket when it comes to traditional blockchain addresses, so having multiple existing wallets assigned to next of kin(s) that are authorized to access core holdings in a vault would be a viable method to pass on your investments.

$GNO and $SAFE tokenomics (as of 10.04.2024)

$GNO

Price: $360.06

All Time High price: $644.20 (-43.6%)

Market Cap: $930,214,220

All Time High Market Cap: $1,141,124,882

Circulating Supply: 2,589,589

Max Supply: 3,000,000

Gnosis metrics

Daily activity on Gnosis Chain

Gnosis DAO Treasury per Etherscan currently holds 13.68% of supply.

$SAFE

Currently non-transferable, as such there is no available liquidity pool or market to facilitate trading. End date for unpause transferability proposal is April 15th 2024. $SAFE token contract can be made transferable any time after April 23rd 2024.

Token contract address: https://etherscan.io/token/0x5afe3855358e112b5647b952709e6165e1c1eeee
Proposal to unpause SAFE token contract https://snapshot.org/#/safe.eth/proposal/0x5b7b35a5baa1b5fe02f2264191d068d7c4270d7975dfcce2cb05b88dcf8d5080
SAFE Token Distribution
SAFE emission schedule; approximately 500,000,000 (50% of supply) available after transferability unpaused.

Investment ProGNOSIS — Discussion

The intention of this FA is to provide an overview of SAFE to inform our asset management strategies and consider the upcoming unpausing of token transferability, but at a high level it is does not provide the full picture to discuss SAFE without covering its origins from Gnosis.

Let us begin in reverse by reviewing the price of $GNO.

In the short to mid term, $GNO has recently found support at the 50% demand zone that coincides with the second quarterly open at $355.40.

There are a few entry opportunities with manageable risk/reward.

Entry at current market price with a stop loss below Q2 open with the view there will be a continuation of the local uptrend to retest CHoCH at $394 and beyond. The bull case will likely be contingent on $BTC and $ETH movements, however $GNO’s current price action currently presents a strong buy opportunity.

Second entry may be to support price at Q2 open with stop loss below the current 4H demand zone with the view that price will retest and breakthrough $382.80.

Should price action lose the local trend and subsequently lose Q2 open, it is likely to see a sharp retest of the Q2 lows at $318.10, which would be a suitable support or DCA buy. Losing this level would likely see a swift retest of the next daily demand zone below at $260. A medium term position would DCA entry Q2 open toward Q2 lows and manage the risk thereafter accordingly.

Long-term holdings would be predicated largely on the fundamentals and tokenomics of Gnosis as a whole. Keen observers would note that while $GNO recently captured an all time high market cap, price has been diluted and remains 43% below the all time high price of $644.20. To retest previous all-time highs with the current supply, $GNO would have to reach a market cap of approximately $1.35B. During a bull market, it is likely that $GNO will find new all time highs. On the plus side, the original maximum supply was previously 10M tokens, but the DAO had voted to burn 70%.

By and large, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), while they offer an underrated system of decentralized governance, they are not often high-performers in the market, nor do they attract much hype without a catalyst (such as $PEOPLE gaining fanfare from returning $ETH donations in the form of the token).

Gnosis Chain is mostly dormant, having only two days that exceeded 1M transaction it is has not be battle tested in real world conditions. Moreover on a technical level there is not much of the blockchain network that sets itself apart from dominant Layer-1s in the space like Solana, Avalanche, and BNB Chain.

However, they have a dedicated community of contributors and are one of the longest standing cryptocurrency entities dating back to 2015, which should not be overlooked. It is difficult to assign an upside target to $GNO since bull markets tend to favour new shiny projects, however should they be successful in progressing Gnosis Pay (decentralized payment rails) it will likely serve as a strong catalyst for a network effect. In addition, Gnosis Ventures have early stage investment exposure through project incubation that would likely deliver benefits to the token in the mid to long term.

Moving on, let us consider SAFE.

First off, the team behind SAFE are some of the most experienced builders in cryptocurrencies. Having spent several years being developed with Gnosis, they are well suited for the role as overseers of the community and the quality of their products are industry leading in terms of security. While they do contribute, Gnosis and Safe are largely built by community contributors in a manner similar to Sushi, but differs in terms of reward structures to retain contributors for the long term.

Secondly, SAFE is considered a public good utility. Developers can use software development kits (SDKs) to fork SAFE contracts and modify them to fit their use case. However, this does not directly benefit a SAFE token.

Third, the upper limit of potential use cases for SAFE modular contracts with the advent of Artificial Intelligence is uncapped. Integrating AI functions into smart contracts with the use of agents (discussed in Fetch FA) to automate DAO authorized transactions presents use cases ranging from venture capital investments, shared portfolio management, implementing actively managed treasury strategies, fractionalized NFT treasuries, and indexed funds. 211 projects are known to be actively using SAFE modular contracts in their products, and we will likely continue to see more projects utilize the contracts in the future.

The purpose of this FA is largely for educational purposes to contemplate and refine our security protocols, but let us consider the investment prospective for a SAFE token.

The SAFE token contract has been live since August 12th 2023 and can be viewed on Etherscan here.

There are currently 11,199 holders with 58% of total supply locked in vesting contracts. While users can redeem their allocations from the contract, once received, they are not able to be transferred. As a result, it is not currently possible for a market to exist for the token. However, with the imminent unpausing of the contract, and since SAFE alone have raised over $100M from over 60 venture backers, the initial liquidity should be more than sufficient.

Moreover, given the token has been highly anticipated by users of SAFE, we can expect it to find itself being listed by large exchanges in short fashion. Note to the community’s credit they all initially agreed to extend the pausing of the token contract to ensure adequate product development had taken place prior.

Per investing into the token, since it is a public good utility, it is unclear on what the revenue model is for SAFE, or if there will ever be one. Their goal as part of the rebrand is to heavily pursue Account Abstraction by abstracting away user complexities and abstracting away network compatibility to enable a unified interface that contains all assets. It is unclear as to whether this will ever translate into revenue for the SAFE token as applying a direct fee in SAFE to users and developers was considered a barrier to adoption.

While SAFE is cutting edge in terms of their SDK enabling a plethora of unforeseen use cases to be developed from multi-sig technology toward the realms of account and network abstraction, there does not appear to be value in the token itself beyond speculation. Granted, there is undoubtedly value in governance, as being apart of the decision making process for such a major catalyst to simplify the user experience, increase security, and enhance asset utilization of shared assets is a big deal. Entities that will drive the price will likely be those with incentive to accumulate a greater weight in voting on resource allocation and setting development goals. It is not unreasonable to assume based on the $100M raised that there are larger players that have an interest in the applications of Account Abstraction.

One may anticipate that at launch speculation may drive the price, however with the likely depth of liquidity to meet market orders, it is unlikely to be a release that see a crazy 100x gain out the gates. If there are incentives to supply liquidity for SAFE holders in a DeFi protocol we may expect a reaction. But as it stands, it appears to be “free money” for SAFE users and $GNO holders, and using their native token to incentivize development will likely lead to sell pressure on the token. However, given that Gnosis is a longstanding project with deep connections in the community, it is likely not a shocking prediction that it will be quick to get listed on major exchanges.

SAFE will be an industry leader in multi-signature technology for years to come, however, if one had to choose between SAFE and GNO to deliver a higher ROI in the long-term, I would be more inclined to see $GNO as a better investment option solely on the basis that the revenue models they are seeking to establish are much clearer. Utility of the $SAFE token appears to still be in the ideation stage, this prognosis could change should there come a time that SAFE is required to advance advanced smart contract features in the Safe4337Module on a pay-per-basis or if the DAO voted for the development of products that require the use the SAFE token (let’s say a DEX with trade fees that buyback the token). The team have alluded to researching use cases with AI agents, depending on the direction they take it could set a new standard of versatility for smart contracts.

Overall, the SAFE token will likely present short term opportunities as new stakeholders are able to purchase the token for governance rights and for those speculating on the Account Abstraction narrative (not a mainstream narrative, but an extremely important one if we are of the view the entire world will eventually be on the blockchain). Regardless, if we are to take anything away from the current FA, it is that we should consider the use of SAFE to secure the large bulk of our assets if we have not done so already.

References

Coingecko Research, ’Gnosis Safe (SAFE) and the Importance of Multi-Sig’, February 16th 2023, https://www.coingecko.com/learn/what-is-gnosis-safe

Dune Analytics [Safe], https://dune.com/safe

Gnosis 3.0, ‘Introducing Gnosis 3.0’, March 7th 2024, https://www.gnosis.io/blog/introducing-gnosis-3-0

Gnosis Blog, ‘GnosisDAO Votes for Integration of Hashi, An Upgrade To Gnosis Chain’s Canonical Bridges, Setting New Standards In Cross-Chain Security’, April 5th 2024, https://www.gnosis.io/blog/gnosisdao-votes-for-integration-of-hashi-an-upgrade-to-gnosis-chains-canonical-bridges-setting-new-standards-in-cross-chain-security

Gnosis DAO Proposals, ‘GIP-29: Spin-off safeDAO and Launch SAFE Token’, 9th February 2022, https://forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-29-spin-off-safedao-and-launch-safe-token/3476

SAFE, ‘Gnosis Safe raises $100 million led by 1kx to unlock digital asset management. Announces rebrand to Safe.’, 12th July 2022, https://safe.global/blog/gnosis-safe-raises-usd100-million-led-by-1kx-to-unlock-digital-asset,

SAFE token transferability, https://safe.global/blog/safe-token-transferability

SAFE Token Utility Proposal, https://forum.safe.global/t/sep-21-safe-token-utility/4802

SAFE Reworked Distribution, https://forum.safe.global/t/new-proposal-reworked-safe-distribution-for-users/594

SafeDAO Proposals, ‘[SEP #22] Unpause SAFE Token Contract (Enabling Transferability)’, April 3rd 2024, https://snapshot.org/#/safe.eth/proposal/0x5b7b35a5baa1b5fe02f2264191d068d7c4270d7975dfcce2cb05b88dcf8d5080

SafeDAO Proposals, ‘SAFE Voting Power and Circulating Supply’, August 2022, https://forum.safe.global/t/safe-voting-power-and-circulating-supply/558

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Justmy2Satoshis
Coinmonks

Fundamental analyst at CCI. Full-time obsession with disruptive applications of blockchain technology.