Trump Election Bets Boost Polymarket Volumes to Record $116M in July

Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, has seen a significant increase in volume due to speculation around the upcoming United States presidential election.

In just the first two weeks of July, Polymarket’s trading volume reached a record-breaking $116.4 million, surpassing its previous monthly high of $111.5 million set in June.

Surge in Election Betting

The spike in trading can be attributed to bettors wagering on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

According to Dune Analytics, political traders have placed a staggering $263.5 million in bets on who will win the election on November 4.

At the time of writing, former President Donald Trump is the favorite among prediction traders, holding a 69% chance of victory.

Current President Joe Biden trails with 19%, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris at 6%, and former First Lady Michelle Obama at 2%.

Record-Breaking Volumes

Polymarket’s overall trading volume for July has already surpassed June’s total by $5 million.

This remarkable growth highlights the platform’s increasing popularity and the high stakes of political betting.

Since the beginning of the year, Polymarket has seen $471.9 million wagered on various events, including politics, finance, sports, and crypto.

Expert Insights

Polymarket has recently brought on election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as an advisor.

Silver, known for his expertise in political forecasting, emphasized that prediction markets are not just about financial speculation.

He stated, “Probabilities really matter when you’re trying to make plans,” highlighting the importance of understanding broader sentiment during uncertain times.

Silver also noted that Trump’s choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as a running mate might negatively impact his campaign. Despite this, Trump remains the favored candidate among prediction traders.

Funding and Growth

Polymarket continues to grow, having closed a $70 million Series B funding round on May 14.

The round was led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund and included notable participants such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

This funding will likely support Polymarket’s expansion and development of new features.

Conclusion

Polymarket’s record-breaking volumes in July reflect the intense interest and speculation surrounding the U.S. presidential election.

With high-profile advisors like Nate Silver and significant financial backing, Polymarket is poised to remain a key player in the prediction market space.

As the election approaches, it will be interesting to see how these predictions evolve and impact the broader market sentiment.