Weekly Crypto Insider February 5th, 2024
This week:
Today is a great day in crypto,
Bitcoin has been ranging between $44,000 and $40,000 for 8 weeks now, with fake break outs to each side. With both sides being faked out, it’s probable that the next break out will provide one that lasts. Which way it goes is TBD.
The Bitcoin halving is projected for April 20th, we are approximately two months until then. We could be seeing a bottom form within this time, price action has reflected this idea so far (down slow and boring). If you believe in the bull run, this down time and boring price action will provide buy opportunities to participate in the next leg up, this will not be a good time to fall asleep.
An idea for what altcoins to buy for the next leg up could be to look for what altcoins have been strong in the most recent leg up (Oct-Dec leg up), what altcoins performed well and what altcoins were people talking about the most. I would not take this as black and white information but more of an idea to narrow down your research and ultimately make an actionable decision.
Altcoins I have noticed as strong or popular as of late…
SOL and SOL ecosystem
TIA
TAO
KAS
SUI
ARB
RNDR
INJ
APT
BEAM
SEI
OP
To name a few, obviously these are the ones I noticed there are many more out there. To add, history has shown the best performers throughout the new cycles have been the coins that were created within that cycle, the older coins tend to underperform.
Good luck hunting!
ETH/BTC Chart:
The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.
Bitcoin Dominance:
Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.
The Dollar index:
The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.
Quick Bit:
Bitcoin continues to range, post ETF news. We have not seen a clear path to the downside or upside yet.
Downside targets would be 38k and 35k, upside targets would be heading to 58k and 60k.
Bears want to see a rejection at $44,000 area to make a lower low.
For now, BTC is range bound between $44,000 — $38,000
The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.
Sentiment:
Greed
Be greedy when others are fearful.
Be fearful when others are greedy.
BTC Analysis:
Current Price: $42,800
Next daily resistance area is $44,000.
Daily support between $38,000 — $40,000.
If we rejected 44k area it would be doubtful that 40k holds and we make new lows to take out some of the untested previous lows.
Long term hold buys would be prices between $35,000 — $32,000, if provided.
ETH Analysis:
Current price: $2,321
ETH bounced from support around $2,200.
Next daily range resistance is $2,380.
Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $2,300 to then contest $2,450.
Getting back above $2,450 will look good for continuation to $2,700 — $3,000.
Long-term investing reminders and mindset:
Accumulate in high time frame support areas, weekly and monthly time frames.
Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.
BTC to stay above $31,000 to continue weekly bull trend.
3 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)
The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.
BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.
Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:
This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.
The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.
For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.
The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.
(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there are others)
- TAO*
2. TET*
3. OP*
4. DIMO*
5. SUI*
6. ARB*
7. SEI*
8. TIA*
9. GAL*
*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also
Quote of the week:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.
