Weekly Crypto Insider January 29th, 2024

Rob R. Lorenzi

Published in

Coinmonks

6 min readJan 30, 2024

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

After concluding the first month in 2024 and with the Bitcoin ETF approval behind us, we now look forward to the Bitcoin halving which is set to be around April. The rewards per block will decrease from 6.25 to 3.123 BTC.

This will be the fourth Bitcoin halving in its history.

Some say the halving is a ‘meme’, but whether it is the reason for it, history has shown this being a bullish catalyst pushing prices to all-time highs by years end.

This of course with the possible 30%-40% corrections sprinkled in on the way up.

S&P has also reached ATH closing today at 4,954.

This year is also an election year, typically during election years, the US economy looks prosperous and thriving (is it actually is another story).

There are also rate cuts projected this year as early as March or May meetings.

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH showed potential the week following the BTC ETF news but has not followed up with much strength since. ETH continues to underperform. Holding in the weekly zone will be important, if not the monthly order block will be the next target down.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance has broken the upward weekly trend but is now chopping around 52%. If ETH/BTC continues to show weakness, BTC dominance could reclaim and head to 58%.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.

The DXY has bounced from support at 100 and until it is broken we could see higher for DXY or more range choppy price action.

Quick Bit:

Bitcoin has been impressive, consuming large sell pressure since the Bitcoin ETF news. Best case from the bulls is to fully recover the selling at $44,000 and or continue to range sideways before the next leg up.

Bears want to see a rejection at $44,000 area to make a lower low.

For now, BTC is range bound between $44,000 — $38,000

The weekly timeframe is still technically in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment:

Greed

Be greedy when others are fearful.

Be fearful when others are greedy.

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $43,469

Bulls made an impressive recovery on the weekly, closing back above $42,000 and back in the range between $38,000 — $44,000.

Next daily resistance area is $44,000.

Support between $38,000 — $40,000.

Long term hold buys would be prices between $35,000 — $32,000.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $2,314

ETH bounced from support around $2,200.

Next daily range resistance is $2,380.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $2,300 to then contest $2,450.

Getting back above $2,450 will look good for continuation to $2,700 — $3,000.

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support areas, weekly and monthly time frames.

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC to stay above $31,000 to continue weekly bull trend.

3 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now).

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)