Weekly Crypto Insider & Price Charts October 16th, 2023

Crypto markets are desperate for a spot ETF, and it showed in today’s price action.

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

World war III… Bank debt crisis… World regime change…

A lot of headlines going on in the world these days, but let’s try and stick to the charts and not let the noise blurry our vision.

False news of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved this morning provided some juice in the crypto space, unfortunately there’s not much liquidity in the markets, we’ll have to watch how this week closes to see if it was enough to get crypto to continue to trend higher. By looking at open interest, the combination of a short squeeze and the news equaled the bears and the bulls to get liquidated within the same hour.

Bitcoin pumped into the HTF liquidity zone just under 30k and has now closed the day back down at $28,500. So far, staying above 28k is a bullish sign to continue, 28k has been a strong resistance zone, closing the end of the week above would be ideal for the bulls. It is only Monday and a lot can happen in the next six days.

In past cycles, Bitcoin has had similar price action, pumping into the top of the range of the year (which is 30k-32k) only to roll over and end the year towards the bottom of the range. We have a little more than two months’ time to observe this theory.

The S&P 500 is helping, showing strength from the 4280 area but is now heading into the weekly bearish order block. Until the S&P closes above 4558 there is still a chance to create a lower high here. We will watch how this area reacts to 4420 area where it has initially rejected.

The DXY is consolidating between 107 and 105, deciding whether it wants to push up higher or continue to correct.

Altcoins continue to bleed out compared to Bitcoin, ETH/BTC is still looking for its next support area.

Until next week.

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH/BTC is searching for its next support area, it looks to be close at around the 0.053 area. It does not appear to get into Altcoins or Ethereum just yet, we need to see this chart find a bottom and reverse to the uptrend. For now, we wait to get excited about altcoins.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance continues its strength, currently above 51.80%.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.

The DXY is consolidating between 107–105, time will tell which way. There is still insufficient price action above between 108–109.5 that could get filled in before heading back down.

Quick Bit:

False rumors of an approved spot ETF sent Bitcoin soaring to 30k within an hour and has since retraced back down to $28,500. Holding above 28k at the end of the week will lean towards bullish but a retrace and close below 28k again will assume lower prices to the bottom of the yearly range.

Staying above $28,000 will be important to sustain rally.

The current weekly trend still looks to be transitioning into the downside and will confirm if the weekly chart gets below 25k. If we continue to rally the next HTF level to penetrate is $31,000.

Next support at $23,300.

The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment:

Neutral

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $28,500

Price retraced today’s move from 30k down to closing at $28,500.

Bulls want price to stay above 28k, bears are looking around 30k to fail and short back down.

$29,000-$31,000 still high time frame resistance, if it does not break above then lower prices become more probable.

If we close below $25,700 the next support areas at 23k.

Then 20k.

Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.

We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $1,596

Price on ETH is still weaker than BTC. Today’s move rejected quickly from resistance at $1,640.

Bulls need to see price get back above $1,650, bears are waiting for rejection at $1,650 back down to local range lows of $1,500 if this happens it would feel like the next move to be more downside.

We remain bearish.

We have not been able to hold above $1,600, the next area for a possible long up is around $1,530 but this would be a short term move unless it moves and reclaims above $1,650.

$1,400 seems like a next area of HTF support.

Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.

We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support, weekly and monthly time frames areas. (don’t get caught up in the short-term volatility)

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $20,000

ETH area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $1,100

8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)

*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also

1. RNDR*

2. SOL

3. RLB

Quote of the week:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.