Weekly Crypto Insider & Price Charts October 2nd, 2023

Rob R. Lorenzi

Published in

Coinmonks

7 min readOct 3, 2023

Will October bring treats for the Bulls or more tricks for the Bears?

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

Welcome to Q4 of 2023, the last stretch before entering 2024. As I see it we should have a lot of information to intake in the next three months and we look forward to watching it unveil.

Bitcoin ended last week with a rally into $28,500. With September historically being a red month, the month ended 4% higher than the month before and ended green.

This time was different and September ended with a green candle.

This rally has brought us back into a resistance level and was not successful in closing the daily candle above $28,000. This next week should give us a sign if this rally will continue or once again get rejected, bulls want to see $27,000 hold for a higher low and continue higher. If we get back below $26,500 we could see lower prices.

Note: The HTF weekly chart broke to the downside so this next leg up must get over $31,000 before bull can get excited, until that happens the bias is a rejection around $28,000-$30,000.

Older chart but this shows when the uptrend was broken. We could be seeing a back test of that trend.

The S&P 500 had another weak week and the dollar rallied for another week of green. If Bitcoin wants to sustain any type of rally we want to see the S&P bounce and the dollar to start rejecting.

We’re excited to watch this quarter play out, in the past crypto cycles Bitcoin has given investors a flush clean out in this quarter with a good entry to hold into the next bull market. The price is unknown where it will land but anywhere between $18,000 — $23,000 will be a gift that we hope to accumulate in.

Until next week.

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH/BTC had a showed a small glimpse of green but got completely engulfed and looks to want to go lower. It is coming into potential support between 0.06–0.052 and would want to see a confirmation above 0.07 to get excited about ETH outperforming BTC. For now, we wait.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance is at back at 50% see this close above 50.5% to confirm continued strength up. For now, BTC sustains dominance in the market.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.

The DXY has been on a monster rally starting its 12th week in the green. Possible resistance level here at 107.

Quick Bit:

Bitcoin continued its short-term pump into resistance at $28,500, it was rejected and did not close the daily candle above it. We will watch to see how this pullback bounces to get back above $28,500.

Staying above $26,500 will be important to sustain rally.

The current weekly trend looks to be transitioning into the downside and will confirm if the weekly chart gets below 25k. If we continue to rally the next HTF level to penetrate is $31,000.

Next support at $23,300.

The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment:

Neutral

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $27,500

Bulls showed up and pushed back into $28,500

The next task is to get above that level and close on the Daily. Until then we will look to fade this rally to start the month of October.

If we break below $25,700 the next support areas at 23k.

Then 20k.

Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.

We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $1,660

Price pushed into $1,750 once again and is currently rejecting.

A close above $1,750 will give the bulls confidence to continue up. For now we are bearish.

Holding above $1,600 will be important.

A break below $1,595 will suggest lower prices for ETH, $1,400 being the next support.

Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.

We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support, weekly and monthly time frames areas. (don’t get caught up in the short-term volatility)

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $20,000

ETH area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $1,100

8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)

*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also