Weekly Crypto Insider & Price Charts October 9th, 2023

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

With the war ramping up at a rapid pace in Israel, markets may have to wait for a resolution to show a clear direction. War talk does not have anything to do with the markets, but it can influence the certainty in the markets, uncertainty in the markets does not scream for a bull market recipe.

Bitcoin rejected once again at the $28,000 level, there is still hope for a continued rally, but it seems the power of the move has been deflated with time, and the longer it takes to continue the less likely it could come to fruition. Bulls want the Daily level of $27,200 — $26,700 to continue to act as support for this move to stay valid. Right now, the price is consolidating at $27,500.

The S&P 500 ended in another red week with a total of 4% decline in the past 5 weeks. We fell into a support area and bounced, we are coming into the area where market structure was broken on the HTF, this may be resistance and could be putting in another lower high. The next few weeks will decide if we reject or gather up strength to rally higher.

The DXY has finally found some resistance at 107 and put in its first red week in 11 weeks. Support may be around the 105–104 area.

Altcoins continue to bleed out compared to Bitcoin, showing it is not yet time to gamble on Altcoins. The next 3–6 months may present such opportunities.

Sometimes news events in other countries allow for self-reflection. The war going on in Israel sounds to be serious and catastrophic, I cannot imagine a life where you live in fear of missiles and bombs being dropped on your city’s high rises at any moment. I will not go into the details or specifics of what is happening but would rather just like to take a moment to appreciate the littles things we might take for granted in life, like our safety and comfortability most of us live in America.

Until next week.

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH/BTC is rolling over to the downside. Next area for a reaction looks to be around 0.053. It does not appear to get into Altcoins or Ethereum just yet, we need to see this chart find a bottom and reverse to the uptrend. For now, we wait.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance is starting to gain more strength, currently above 51%. BTC sustains dominance in the market.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.

The DXY has finally found some resistance at 107 and put in its first red week in 11 weeks. Support may be around the 105–104 area to create a higher low and continue upwards.

Quick Bit:

Bitcoin continued its short-term pump into resistance at $28,500, it was rejected and did not close the daily candle above it. We will watch to see how this pullback bounces to get back above $28,500.

Staying above $26,500 will be important to sustain rally.

The current weekly trend looks to be transitioning into the downside and will confirm if the weekly chart gets below 25k. If we continue to rally the next HTF level to penetrate is $31,000.

Next support at $23,300.

The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment:

Neutral

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $27,500

Price is consolidating at the key level just below $28,000. The next task is to get above that level and close on the Daily. This initial breakout from 25k support is taking longer than the past up moves, it seems like more of a grind up, we will see if it continues or is just gearing up for a swift move down.

$29,000-$31,000 still high time frame resistance, if it does not break above then lower prices become more probable.

If we break below $25,700 the next support areas at 23k.

Then 20k.

Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.

We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $1,578

Price on ETH has been weaker than BTC and is bleeding lower. ETH does not look strong compared to USD either.

We have not been able to hold above $1,600, the next area for a possible long is around $1,530 but this would be a short term move.

$1,400 seems like a next area of HTF possible support.

Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.

We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support, weekly and monthly time frames areas. (don’t get caught up in the short-term volatility)

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $20,000

ETH area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $1,100

8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)

*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also

1. KAS*

2. ANT

3. RNDR

4. SOL

Quote of the week:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.