Weekly Crypto Insider & Price Charts September 25th, 2023
This week:
Today is a great day in crypto,
Bitcoin rallied into resistance at $27,400 and rejected down to the current level of $26,500. The chart suggests that in the short term it is possible we can retest the $25k level. If $25k is broken on the weekly chart that will confirm the weekly uptrend to be broken with a new lower low. If we touch 25k this will be the 3rd time testing this level since June.
The S&P 500 made 3% move to the downside last week breaking the low of August, but Bitcoin did not react. 3% in one week for the S&P is a decent size move, crypto usually correlates to the general direction of equities, and equities are potentially starting a downtrend. This would be something to pay attention to in the next coming weeks if you’re expecting to see any strength in Crypto.
FOMC meeting last week saw no interest rate hike, leaving the FED rate at 5.5%. The current projection is that the rate will end 2023 around 5.5–5.75%. This could leave room for one more rate hike in either the Nov or Dec meeting.
More headlines last week with Binance FUD (they are not out of the woods yet), and the SEC made a statement that there could be more crypto exchanges hit with fines in the future. The FED continues to put up a fight against the crypto industry. Big headlines with negative news about Binance could be the catalyst to bring the crypto market down to its final bottom for this next cycle.
In a zoomed out Crypto market cycle outlook, the next three months in the past three cycles have been the best last time to accumulate Bitcoin prior to the Bitcoin halving to hold into the next bull run. But could it really be that easy? It can be, but the hard part to that question is that you won’t be able to really answer it until the next cycle top, which by that time it will be irrelevant. I believe history doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes, if you want to know the future then study the past. The things change but human psychology, fear and greed doesn’t, which creates the cycles ups and downs.
Right now we are considered to be in a down market, as the investor that you are I’ll let you decide what you want to do with that information.
Until next week.
ETH/BTC Chart:
The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.
Bitcoin Dominance:
Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.
The Dollar index:
The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.
Quick Bit:
Bitcoin has rejected twice from $27,500 we are waiting for strength on this most recent pullback to see if bulls have any more juice in the tank to push into 28k.
The current weekly trend looks to be transitioning into the downside and will confirm if the weekly chart gets below 25k.
Next support at $23,300.
The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.
Sentiment:
Fear
Remember fear in trading means buying opportunities.
BTC Analysis:
Current Price: $26,270
Bulls need to put in some work if they want this uptrend to continue. Last week provided a small bounce but needs work to continue the move up. Price rejected at $26,200 and looks to be putting in weak structure.
Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.
We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.
ETH Analysis:
Current price: $1,588
Price rejected from $1,650 and is currently in an area that needs to bounce in order to move back up.
A break below $1,595 will suggest lower prices for ETH, $1,400 being the next support.
Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.
Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.
We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.
Long-term investing reminders and mindset:
Accumulate in high time frame support, weekly and monthly time frames areas. (don’t get caught up in the short-term volatility)
Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.
BTC area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $20,000
ETH area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $1,100
8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)
The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.
BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.
Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:
This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.
The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.
For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.
The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.
(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)
- KAS*
2. ANT*
3. RUNE
*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also
Quote of the week:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.
