Weekly Crypto Insider September 11th, 2023

Rob R. Lorenzi

Published in

Coinmonks

7 min readSep 11, 2023

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

While the price action in the crypto markets has been slim to none, there has been some headlines to fill the excitement.

Ark Invest, Cathie Wood’s $60B investment firm, and 21Shares, a digital asset management firm, filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a spot exchange-traded fund tracking the price of Ethereum on Sept. 6. If approved, add this to the growing category of institutional adoption in the future.

The Bitcoin “Death cross” on the daily chart is getting close to crossing over to the downside. Typically, when this occurs this is a bearish pattern to play out for the short to mid-term. This is not a stand-alone indicator but with the dollar index also looking strong, this could line up as confluence to more downside in the coming weeks. (Death cross: When the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average.)

FTX holdings prepare to liquidate $3.4 billion in crypto, their holdings include SOL, FTT, BTC, ETH, APT, DOGE, MATIC, BIT, TON, XRP, stable coins and more. It is expected that FTX will receive approval to start liquidating the said assets starting September 13th. The proposal plan is to sell up to $200 million worth of crypto every week (speculation).

Friend.tech has gone viral in the Web3 space where people can trade and market each other while earning fees and shares denominated in Ethereum, giving some excitement/adrenaline to the space that it is desperately needing. Since its launch on August 10th, over 100,000 users have signed up, will this hype continue or is it just a fad in time? Time will tell…

Bitcoin’s price is stagnated just below $26,000 with no new volume in sight. Traders anticipate a pump soon but should not get excited unless price can get back above $29,000 which seems like a tough battle for the bulls right now. Ethereum has taken out the June lows ($1,628) and is bleeding down at $1,612. Next support at $1,600 could see a bounce but will need to get above $1,850 to change momentum to the upside.

Sentiment feels like the only people around are the OG’s who have been around long enough to have seen these bleak times before, and believe this phase is just part of the process before a new bull run begins, everyone else has left the building.

For the rest of the newcomers losing hope the depression phase continues…

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH/BTC still has a way to go if it wants to build a longer time frame uptrend. It will need to break out of 0.067 to gain confidence, no significant change here. We have been consolidating in this area for around 11 weeks now.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance is still at 49% but could be finding support to go higher.

BTC Dominance is below 50%% but is still technically in an uptrend (a break below 47.5% will invalidate the weekly uptrend). BTC Dominance next resistance level is 52%.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.

The DXY has climbed all the way back up to 105.1 possibly putting in a new high. After 8 straight weeks of green it would not be surprising if at some point we correct soon, if it does we will look for a higher low and eventually to go up and tag the 106 area.

Quick Bit:

Bitcoin is consolidating just below $26,000 we are waiting for a bounce up towards $27,500 to make a lower high then a move down.

If BTC closes below 25k on the weekly chart we could see lower prices. Next support at $23,300

The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment: Fear

Remember fear in trading means buying opportunities.

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $25,740

Bulls need to put in some work if they want this uptrend to continue. A weekly close below $25k will confirm lower prices.

Next support areas at 23k.

Then 20k.

Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.

*We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $1,628

A bounce from here is anticipated, price will need to get back above $1,800 for it to be significant if not price will be faded back down.

Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.

*We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support areas, weekly and monthly time frames.

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $20,000

ETH area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $1,100

8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)