Weekly Crypto Insider September 17th, 2023

Binance.US CEO resigns along with mass layoffs in the company. Could be bad signs for Binance to sustain business in the US.

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

After starting the week off down, last week rallied up from the lows to give some bulls some hope. Bulls hope for at least a bounce that is, 28k still looks like the level to break above and close to start any credible momentum back towards 30k. For now, the bears have resistance levels around 27.5k and are look for BTC to reject from that level. It’s also noted that the rally feels like a move with not a lot of follow through.

Currently, Bitcoin is at $26,500 and looking to stay above $26,100 to keep this bounce going.

The midterm HTF trend is still in transition, with a possibility of a trend change to the downside. Market structure has made a potential lower low at 25k and will need to reclaim above 28.5k to continue to the upside or else we will be putting in a lower high which technically is a new trend to the downside. This week with be worth paying attention to.

Also, September has historically been a down month, and we are halfway through the month currently in the green. Will this time be different, or will we start moving down to close the month?

Monthly chart showing September green for the first half of the month, historically September ends in the red.

FTX received court approval to liquidate $3.4 billion in crypto assets.

FOMC meeting this week on Sept. 20th, with a 97% fed fund rates will stay at 5.5% and we will not receive a rate hike this month. We will be paying attention to how Powell sounds on the podium and any hints toward our last two meetings to end the year.

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH/BTC has been consolidating in this area for around 11 weeks now. Holding Bitcoin seems favorable until ETH can make it above 0.65.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance is at 49.9% but could be finding support to go higher reaching for the next resistance at 52%.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. It doesn’t hurt to watch the dollar index to add to your overall analysis and decision making.

The DXY has been in the green 9 weeks in a row. 106 looks like the next number to tag and possible find some resistance.

Quick Bit:

Bitcoin is consolidating at $26,000 we are waiting for a bounce up towards $27,500 to make a lower high, then possibly a move down.

If BTC closes below 25k on the weekly chart we could see lower prices. Next support at $23,300

The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment:

Fear

Remember fear in trading means buying opportunities.

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $26,400

Bulls need to put in some work if they want this uptrend to continue. Last week provided a small bounce but needs work in order to continue the move up. Price is rejecting at $26,700 and must stay above $26,100 to continue last weeks bounce.

If we break below $25,700 the next support areas at 23k.

Then 20k.

Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.

We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $1,615

Price rejected from $1,650 and currently in an area that needs to bounce in order to move back up. Getting above $1,655 is crucial for ETH to form any momentum to the upside.

A break below $1,595 will suggest lower prices for ETH.

Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.

We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000. We anticipate Nov/Dec to present great buys for the next bull run.

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support areas, weekly and monthly time frames.

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $20,000

ETH area to pay attention to on the Monthly timeframe support: $1,100

8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)

1. KAS*

2. RUNE

3. TRIAS*

*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also

Quote of the week:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.